Legion Again

AM1: 128th (69.6M) Thor: 55th (103M) Cap1: 63rd (98M) If it wants to miss 70M on a holiday, it’s going to need to be the worst OW in the MCU. Could be possible, but I hope not.

Oh, and fwiw, the last few days of data out of the UK have been pretty encouraging. Seems like delta could be peaking more around the time of TSS/Free Guy and on a clear downswing by the time of Shang-Chi. I now expect Disney will just muscle it out with a pure theatrical on the current date.

Top 4 ending up 51M, Snake Eyes and Space Jam both 2.5M or so short of those quick nums. Disappointing product plus a movie getting hammered by MAX frontloadedness. It’s a shitty weekend for sure but in a pretty normal way. I’d expect a lot more of that for the next… 5 weeks? F9 and BW were the only real blockbusters the studios put in summer and now they’ve already come out, so

Yeah it is basically the same, almost certainly both or neither. “Under Space Jam” feels a lot more salt-in-the-wound than “under GvK” though.

I’m not sure what you mean/what your point is/what you’re trying to get at?We were talking about some hypothetical weekends for a theatrical exclusive BW. Edit:Ah, now that I open the quote in full presumably you’re responding to the 2nd paragraph. Well, I mean, yes — obviously BW is having brutal drops, but my point is that it’s not like they’re 10% worse than expected, more like 5%. And obviously PA is playing a role there.

Ahhhh, no. I meant failing to set a new 3-day record for WB this year.

Hey those aren’t particularly terrible holds for the record. A 100M OW would be maybe 16 prev+84M true FSS or something, so 37/84 is a 56% true drop — vs 55% for AM&tW, 56% for SMH (and the 61.5% true drop BW had in reality). Then 17/37 is a 54% drop, only slightly worse than other July MCU 3rd weekends. A lot of the BW discourse has ignored that even well received fully theatrical MCU July films drop 60% 2nd weekend because that’s just how fan driven franchises work when given summer Th previews.

What do you think the meltdown line is? Leaving GvK as WB’s record opener? Under Space Jam?

Yeah, call me when something that should have been big flops

Thinking about it, probably would have won all 3 weekends. conservative: 100 37 17

I wish BW had gone theatrical exclusive just to kill all of these insipid takes in the bud.

Yeah if you look at the UK it seems pretty clear that we’ll be back on the downswing by mid-Late Sep as delta burns itself out of unvaccinated targets. Nothing small-medium will probably need to move, and nothing already going day and date. If they do decide they need to do something about Shang chi if it ends up basically smack on the delta peak: make it PA (depends on contracts how possible this is/exact penalties) Move it to early Feb (5 movies 2022 ) Move it to Eternals slot and Eternals to Feb There’s room in 2022 to not do another full slate delay.

“Popular Posts”

Oh, and of course the other important thing I forgot to mention about freaking out over these Friday midday Deadline nums is… they’re Friday midday Deadline nums.

The numbers deadline has would be pretty atrocious… but not nearly as atrocious as some of the takes on the last few pages 😆 There’s definitely some hint of delta in these numbers imo, but like — not that much? If the top 4 do 47M, vs reasonable expectations of what, maybe 56M (16+16+12+12) that’s far less of a miss then we saw on countless weekend pre-covid. Shang-Chi is in a very worrying spot, but this storm should have pretty much run it’s course by Oct or so. A couple things might go day and date (though several already were) or make minor shuffles, but this is hardly spring 2020 redux.

??? Did you even read the discussion you just walked into? Scroll up half a page.

Sure, the range was a little wide. It was 38% over the midpoint of 22.5. Not the sort of miss that Candyman fans would be looking for here by a long shot. I don’t know why people love the “BOP missed big on Space Jam” talking point, it just doesn’t stand up to cursory mathematical scrutiny.

Space Jam long range forecasts: Jun 18 — 15-30 Jul 2 — 15-30 It missed their high end by… 3%

Where do you see that? Did it have an absolute number for previews or just relative to each other?

SE and Old probably 15-17ish, BW 12 and SJ 11. Shouldn’t be that close after all.

Looks like a good weekend coming up, I predict 120k Sat 110k Sun based on PS. From there it should hit 3M as 55% drops would do it — although if Escape really hammers it could still miss.

I think it’s unrealistic to expect a “normal” trailer time from the MCU now when they’re doing like 7 movies in a 12 month period here. They probably don’t want to have trailers for like 4 different movies out at the same time they’re trying to actively promote a 5th on recent release. I don’t expect to have trailers for more than 3 or so at a time. This one should be coming soon now that Loki is wrapped up though, imo.

I’ve always felt like this looked pretty fun. I hope it can surpass those modest expectations as the reactions suggest.

Great release date 👀

The only strong looking product between here and Shang-Chi has always been just TSS imo. And that’s got some baggage, though I can’t claim to have expected sales this low at this time.