Legion Again

Just got out of my third showing, which was a 4:00 Thursday showing in a non-African American area. It was basically sold out, and the 7:00 did sell out, with lines out the door. At this point I’m not going to react to *any* predictions for this movie from a well regarded source with “that seems like too much.” 120 would be insane though — that’s a 32% drop from the pure FSS figures.

Optimistic fanboy goggles, ENGAGE! 100M+ OW, 56th-60th: Ant-Man and the Wasp Captain Marvel Godzilla 2 Avengers:IW Aladdin

Best as I can tell, the current record for non-premiere, non-holiday season Wednesday is Avengers with 13.6 (15.4 adjusted). So I’d consider anything 15.5 and up a huge success. That would be ~a 28% drop, so should be quite doable.

I’m also excited to see the Tuesday Nums, but it occurs to me that they may be a bit beyond the time period that then WEEKEND thread is supposed to cover

Are you telling me that an 80M Monday is confirmed if BP2 can keep the President’s day slot?

Are are we doing 1B sans China? Kind of feels like BP will hit a billion without China.

Feige was truly playing 4-D chess with those *Black* Widow rumors

At this point I’m willing to believe that “Marvel: Ham Sandwhich” would break 250 DOM and 700WW.

This should easily take the schoolday Tues record as well, right? Beating.... BatB’s 18M? Was hilarious to discover that TFA has 2 of the top 3 Tuesday’s overall. Edit: Oh, okay. Looks like Rth meant “already clear that 33 will be passed,” not “33M has literally already been passed as of 3PM Pacific.”

So far, the number of pages in this thread has been doing an uncanny job of tracking BP’s gross. So to help do my part in getting us to 240, I’ll join in a bit with the Marvel ranking. Tiers are pretty fixed, but movement within tiers is very possible when I rewatch for A4: Tier 1 — Winter Soldier, Civil War, Black Panther, Iron Man, Guardians of the Galaxy Tier 2 — Ragnarok, Homecoming, First Avenger, Guardians Vol 2, Ant-Man, Avengers Tier 3 — Age of Ultron, Thor, Iron Man 3, Doctor Strange Tier 4 — Iron Man 2, Incredible Hulk, Dark World

Hey, I predicted this on Reddit like 2 weeks ago. It it was a thread specifically about unrealistic/long-shot predictions though.

MCU movies released between May 5 2017 and May 5 2018 are going to pass 2B DOM, possibly pretty comfortably. Think about that for a second.

Now that we’ve seen how successful Black movies can be for marvel, they should really put a rush on Black Widow.

And here I was thinking you had 4. Must have miscounted

They actually give Mon figure corresponding to that 4-day possibility — 40.3-41.75, beating the TFA Monday record on the low end. Of course, they hedge their bets by mentioning a conservative forecasts of only 32M a few sentences later. But yes, Mon record very in play.

Stranger isn’t confirmed, 2020 non-sequel speculated to be Black Widow, but yeah that’s pretty much correct. Marvl tends to move franchises that have done well in a non May date to May for the next time, but they could also keep it in the late winter/early spring slot. I wonder what the first year with 4 films will be, hopefully 2020 or 2021.

If BP and IW place 1 and 2 this year, somehow I doubt Feige will sweat the exact order too much. Also, when are we expecting BP2? It’s clearly a big time franchise now, so presumably May 2021?

You like this quote, and understandably. But actually looking through that thread we can see that 200 was a 4-day prediction, accompanying 180 3-day. So while it’s the best prediction I’ve seen from that far back, even it was off by 20/30+

(I’m using 60 for the Sun fig with the same reasoning as a2knet) In case anyone was curious, here’s a comprehensive list of movies with a top 25 OW and an OD:Sun ratio at least as good as BP’s:

If it breaks the Sunday record it should have ~202, so a 2nd weekend drop of TA or JW gets it above 100. If you take BP’s actual performance and just totally chop off the first 7 days, you might get weekends and a total that match the early predictions reasonably well

“TLJ is doing so poorly because of an unnecessary and divisive push for ‘diversity,’ if only Disney pandered less to SJWs it would have done so much better at the box office.” Black Panther in contention to beat TLJ

Squirrel Girl 350 you say? What then for AM&tW? Seriously though, MCU should have incredible good will domestically and overseas going into July. There’s some chance it could improve on Ant-Man more than expected.

RIP Ultron. Whether the actuals turn out 66.5 vs like 65.5 will make a big difference for the possibility of reaching 200.

But what if I’m from Norway *and* Reddit? Just call it even?

This is true from a marketing perspective, yeah. The more of the BP audience you can retain that weren’t previously MCU fans the better. OTOH, putting the Infinity War trailer before BP could be considered kind of spoilery/confusing for people who are a bit out of the loop.