Legion Again

Marvel cannot be anything but crazy thrilled with Black Panther’s performance overall. However, they’re playing the long game, and China is a big market — they’d probably rather have a $70M total and a 8.8 Maoyan than a 140 total and a 7.8 Maoyan, because feelings toward the character will affect BP2, BP3, at least 4 avengers films probably and likely even some other character’s solo movies in which he appears. That said, a single movie’s reception doesn’t determine how people feel about the character forever. If the complaints are mostly about issues specific to this movie’s plot/structure/action balance rather than the characters, then it’s certainly possible future movie’s could end up more liked just by regression to the mean.

120 is still a lot better than almost anyone was expecting a month ago and all MCU first entries iirc. This is more concerning with regard to possible reception of BP2 in my opinion, but that can also be affected by IW and A4. Ant-Man&the Wasp would only need a pretty modest increase from the well received first part 3 years ago to beat BP in China then, which would be really amusing when you look at the ratio between number six for those 2 domestically.

No, 160-190M opening day. That’s in Yuan though, not dollars. Would be an OD in the low-mid $20s.

??? It’s more than 80% likely. A mere 660 DOM, 100 China, 510 OS-China would do it, and all of those numbers are beatable.

Yeah, over 3.5 DOM for Avatar 2 EZ.

For a weekend just over 66, beating Jurassic World for 3rd place on fastest to 500. It’s not even the second best third weekend ever though, so seems kind of like Black Panther is C R U M B L I N G

Those immediately came to mind as the two best candidates, but I wouldn’t personally give either of them 50% or better chances right now.

More interesting/difficult question imo: how long until the top 10 are all 700+ grossers? We’ve got 2 now, maybe 3 if Panther legs it very well, and nothing else on the horizon that I’d consider favored to get there. Can we get there in under a dozen years? Under a decade?

Only need 2 years for 600+ top 10 — BP, A3&4, Ep IX Of course you could also have a wildcard get us there even before IX, or fill in for an underperforming Avengers.

Yes, by a good margin.

BOM has 170 movies opening between 40 and 60, and 1796 opening between 55 and 10 (don’t list below 10). So depending on which range of openings you want and whether you count getting to 400 on a rerelease, either 1/170, 5/170, 1/1796, or 5/1796 (not counting Jumanji for any of those, since it has not yet crossed 400).

Jurassic Park and The Lion King also adjust out of a <55 opening — although Star Wars and E.T. still qualify adjusted.

This is in Jurassic Park, The Lion King, Titanic, and ... ? E.T and Star Wars both get there in rereleases. Is it those three in addition to Jumanji, or did I just miss one. Edit: Jurassic Park and The Lion Kind also get there in the rereleases, actually. I have 5 total and only Titanic in original release.

BP won’t get any summer benefit later in its run the way Avengers did. It should remain ahead for the whole run, but it’s still possible for the lead to narrow a bit rather than widening. That said, I think a lot of people are expecting it to beat Avengers by at least 34 in the end.

RIP dreams of beating Civil War and IM3’s 2nd weekends (also, did you know those two had 2nd weekend that were only 112k apart? Spooky). Can we please at least beat GotG2’s 2nd weekend?

That would be a 43% Friday to Friday drop, so same Sat and Sun increase and drop as last weekend would give us only 64, to miss on 500M. Of course if the actual is like 16.7 then it would just barely be on track to make it with weekend drop matching the Fri-to-Fri.

He speaks! BP 16.9 still unconfirmed though.

So 65 needed to beat JW on the Fastest to 500 chart? IN

75 seems crazy, but that’s what I thought about BOM’s 120, and that ended up being a pretty good estimate. If the 3rd weekend falls below that estimate to the same degree, we’ll end up with 111/120*75= 69

MCU 2018 stretch goals: 1.5 DOM, 3.5 WW

At least there will be a movie that makes over 150M in March

Now a 3.5 multiplier with this weekend only gets it to 683 The only thing that can save this movie movie now is 69M next weekend.

The cume is 405, so add 10 to everything.

Seems possible. Also would edge out Avatar for 2nd place.

This Tues-Thursday BP did 50 compared to JW’s 62 (~80.6%). JW made 43 in its second week Mon-Thurs, so if BP can get a similar ratio it would be about 35M, to be at 440 end of Thursday. Then it would only need a 61M weekend (46% drop), which should be super doable, to also pass Jurassic world for fastest to 500. Of course Jurassic World had summer weekdays, and BP’s first week was a partial holiday week, which it’s 2nd is not. The best part is that a 69M third weekend is very in play.