Jump to content

Legion Again

Gold Account
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    22,399

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    17

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Legion Again

  1. Legion Again
    690 is very doable, that last 10M is probably a bridge too far. Off a 10M weekend it would need a 6x 7th weekend multiplier, which is a huge ask. Off a 12M weekend it would only need a 5x multiplier, which is a lot more possible. I think it’ll be around 11M, need a 5.5 multiplier off that weekend, and miss. I guess we we could have a situation where it’s going to make like 698 “naturally” and Disney just leaves it in theaters forever and uses some IW double features to try to drag it over, but they don’t seem to be too concerned about that sort of thing.
  2. Legion Again
    Not Wrath of Han, but no, it won’t. Best Tuesday increase it’s had (+32%) gets it a 2.4 Tues, then best Wednesday drop (-25%) a 1.8 W, then best Thursday increase (8%) a slightly under 2 Thursday for a bit under 6.2 from the remaining weekdays and a Thurs total of about 639.3. Then it would need a 13M weekend (spectacular 24% drop) to pass JW. More realistically we should be at 639 after Thursday, 11-12 weekend gets to 650-651, pass JW next Tuesday or Wednesday.
  3. Legion Again
    BP starting to pull ahead of TDK adjusted in the dailies more decisively now. Hard to see it below 680 for me.
  4. Legion Again
    Just give it to Feige and wait a decade.
  5. Legion Again
    With 17.1M, BP has the 4th best 6th weekend ever, and could drop 30% and still remain in the top 5 weekends. It couldn’t afford to drop much more than that though, with the current 5th best 7th weekend being The Blind Side at 11.91.
  6. Legion Again
    9 days into IW presales. 32 days to go. It’s in third place.
  7. Legion Again
    At least BP is contributing over $200M to March.
  8. Legion Again
    Wow, just getting sales by the 1000 and refreshing every half hour or so could be a big improvement to our Pulse data extraction. In fact, if we’re careful about not double counting tickets from overlapping windows, it should be possible to refresh more frequently and just have access to basically every ticket sold on fandango, right? Or are there sales that don’t appear on pulse?
  9. Legion Again
    At this rate the number of empty seats will have grown by over 2000 by OW, doesn’t look good
  10. Legion Again
    Just meming about how it came in below expectations this weekend. Making an easy 650+ is obviously not actually crumbling.
  11. Legion Again
    Yay, more numbers.
  12. Legion Again
    Man , with BP crumbling like this it will barely make top 3 DOM all time.
  13. Legion Again
    So how much can we get out of New Zealand with Black Panther 2 directed by Taika Waititi? Eh, eh?
  14. Legion Again
    I feel like they are also the demographic most adept at finding online versions of a movie before official streaming begins.
  15. Legion Again
    C U L T U R A L P H E N O M E N O N
  16. Legion Again
    Exactly. 700 is a much more realistic number than 650 with the weekend they’re projecting.
  17. Legion Again
    Forecasted for 3rd best 5th weekend then, but fingers crossed on edging out Titanic’s 30.01. Deadline’s update also says: “that many ultimately believe will be an end game of $650M stateside, $1.25 billion worldwide” Which seems like a total joke lowball to me off of a 29 Mil weekend — 1.3 is more likely than not.
  18. Legion Again
    To get Disney to 1B before IW, presumably. Instead they’ll have to settle for making it on opening Fri or Sat, which will still beat the previous record for fastest to 1B by about 10 days (and make the only times it has been done in under 150 days Disney 2016, Disney 2017, and Disney 2018).
  19. Legion Again
    Zilch. They’d be lucky to get another 60 from Wrinkle and 140 from Panther, which is not even close. Even a crazy optimistic 80 from Wrinkle and 180 from Panther (over 750 finish, lol) still falls short.
  20. Legion Again
    Really sad to see Black Panther C R U M B L I N G like this on Sun. I’ll revise my estimate down to 675.
  21. Legion Again
    So they’re projecting a 13.1 Sunday — -29.6%. That is almost exactly between the last two Sun drops. In order to beat TFA’s 4th weekend it would need a 13.8 Sun (-25.8%). That’ very close to its 2nd weekend Sun drop, so definitely still within reach.
  22. Legion Again
    20 would be absolutely incredible.
  23. Legion Again
    Okay, a post with some more serious numbers. If BP gets a 42 weekend to get a 563 total to date, then here’s about how it would do with the 4th weekend multipliers of some various movies (some better comps than others): GotG2 675 TFA 687 TA 689 BATB 692 DP 693 The Jungle Book 693 JW 701 TDK 710 WW 722 JUM2 731 Zootopia 739 SM:H 740 That was all mental math, so don’t @ me if some of them are like +/- 2M, but basically top 3 DOM is looking *very* good.
  24. Legion Again
    BP dropped 44.7% 2nd weekend, and 40.6% 3rd. If it can come in with 42.1 here that would be a 36.5% drop, which is a perfect linear progression in terms of percentage drops. Some simple extrapolation would then give a 32.4% drop for next weekend (28.46), unfortunately falling below Frozen to be only the 4th best 5th weekend ever. A little more simple extrapolation reveals that BP would drop only 3.7% in its 12th weekend and then see an increase of .4% in its 13th before having a whopping 29.1% weekend to weekend increase for its 20th weekend
  25. Legion Again
    Will also accept 42.69 and 42.069 if needs must.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.

  I accept