Legion Again

Less than 3 weeks til the party starts.

Cross posting from the BP thread: BP has had another unexpectedly strong week, and the question on everyone’s mind is still “can BP hit 700.” So for this installment we’re doing something a little different. Rather than projecting BP’s final gross based on the 8th weekend multiplier of the ensemble movies, we’re going to see what 8th weekend figure BP would need to hit 700 exactly with a comparable multiplier. TFA 8M TA 9.6M BATB 10.2M Jungle Book 9.2M Jurassic World 6.8M TDK 8.85M WW 7M Jumanji2 8.95M Zootopia 9M SM:H 6.7M We’re entering a period for some movies (JW in particular) where a substantial portion of their remaining movie is from a Labor Day reexpansion, which complicates things a bit. BP of course will not get a Labor Day reexpansion, but it may have a somewhat similar effect from IW. I am personally expecting a weekend in the 9s, which keeps things a nailbiter. This is the first time in about a month that I would give BP better than even odds of making it though.

BP has never had a Thursday drop of more than 6%, so we should be looking at a 1.3-1.5M Thursday to get to 657. Can’t miss Titanic on Friday at that point.

What in the world!? 16% drop off a very respectable Tuesday. 9M+ weekend looking very possible still. Good shot to beat Titanic on Friday now too.

Absolutely fantastic resources, thank you. Looks like Ragnarok finished with 7.07, so 7.3 might even be in reach for Panther.

Looks like Peter Rabbit is doing pretty well. Now that BP has dropped out of the top 4 you can’t get the nice visual rectangle summary for it, right? How’s it going compared to the other high-performing MCU movies at a similar point in their run?

Actually pretty decent I’d say. Maybe 35% or so.

2.5+4.3+2.8 is 9.6 Those daily numbers look look pretty good to me though. I guess my forecast would be something like: 1.2 1.2 2.5 4 2.7 which would still be 9.2.

BP and Frozen are both better than TDKR, so nice to see that both will beat it OS in addition to WW.

Wow, really sad to see that Black Panther has only made $2,018 unadjusted. Just benefitting from some really crazy inflation, I guess.

Not sure this will really happen before BP’s run is essentially over. Also, I wonder if BP can snag the number 2 spot on Tuesday.

Ahh, I see. Rather annoying that BOM market specific numbers and total international figure are totally desynced like that, but I guess I can see how it would be a bother for them to keep everything updated and in correspondence.

The 780 is with an outdated japan figure though, right? BOM currently shows 780 with 15.9 from Japan, so the actual figure after this weekend should be 790 and only 10 more needed.

Well, yeah. Picked it precisely to make a stark comparison, weakest in recent history. Still crazy to me that the same amount of money can be 3rd vs 13th so close to each other.

It only needs 36M or so from Japan to pass 800, right? Seem quite likely. That would give 2017 11 movies at 800+, clobbering the previous record (2016, with 8). Funny that just 3 years earlier GotG made worldwide top 3 with 773, and in 2017 that would only get you 13th O.O

Poppins+Wreck-it 2 are literally more likely to do 3x Aquaman than fall below Aquaman.

This also means it’s locked to pass 2 JLs WW

That 690-700M range keeps looking more and more like Panther’s final resting point. With these numbers, 95% confidence in 680-705 or so.

635 and we're talking about challenging TLJ WW.

BoxOfficePro has Acrimony projected at 17, BoxOfficeMojo at 15.5, but Deadline currently has it at 10-15. I think BP’s chances at number 2 are down in the single digits, but that’s enough to be an exciting outside shot for me at least until we see Friday numbers.

Starting to wonder of BP can pull a #2 for this weekend. Beating PRU and ICOI looks pretty doable, with the biggest spanner in the works being how high Acrimony opens. If it does snag #2, I believe we will have 2/3 of the films this millennia with at least 7 weeks in the top 2 playing in theaters concurrently

Yup, looking like Sun, Tues, Sat respectively.

This is pretty much where I’m at, and it puts 700 back on the table (not favored though, might give it a 35% chance if the next 5 days unfold like this).

BOOM, great Tuesday number. Over 35% increase is the best Tuesday increase of its run so far, and down a mere 13% week to week.

Black Panther median Tuesday increase on weeks without a holiday monday is 28.8, which would give 2.34 today, so I’m looking at above 2.35 or so as better than expected and below 2.3 as worse than expected.