Looking at some XMAS ODs
Unbroken - 15.43M to 115.64M in 2014
Daddy's Home - 15.71M to 150.35M in 2015
Les Miserables - 18.11 to 148.8M in 2012
Given the normal frontloading and the fact OD for this is loaded with pay it forward, not that unlikely.
I think the reason was boxing day sales were weak. It can still overcome those but there was also a pay it forward thing going on, so 25th could just be very loaded.
Missing 100M is very much possible from 16M OD. If tomorrow drops big as sales would have suggested, would become likely as well, unless WOM is really great.
I had it at $5M+ from last few weeks. Presales are strong lets see how walkups go.
In my tracking sample it is outselling Color Purple in daily pace for last couple of days. Overall sales are more than half. I am obviously over indexing for it
Yeah Dunki was below expectations.
I liked Animal a lot, especially some highs are pretty high. Pathaan improved drastically for me in rewatch. On contrary, Jawan I loved it in theater, it fell a bit in rewatch.
I am not predicting 11. Those are two comps. I am saying that I don't see 25 though, in fact probably even 20M. Mid teens probably but a lot will depend on walkups.
It did. Not US but Canada. Canada market has doubled/tripled in last 5 years or so. A few years back in 2018, Sanju did $6M in US and $1.9M in Canada. Today Animal will do $7.75-8M in US and $7-7.5M in Canada. or a direct comparison, TZH did $4.5M in US and $1.4M in Canada. Tiger 3 did $3.2M in US and $2.4M in Canada. US dropped to 70% of TZH but Canada increased to 170%.
There is also some point of inflation during 2-3 years of CoVID and likes of Jawan and Pathaan got IMAX as well, which was rare for Hindi films prior.