charlie Jatinder

Did I said that In my head I said that, but I didn't realise I said that here too. Yeah there's nothing much happening in 6 months and I have exams so. . I hope I am able to isolate myself.

Will need $130mn outside Japan. Seems tough.

I compiled the two films last time, they were $380mn and $367mn Approx. Spirited Away in 2001 when local currency was low, so in real terms, SA is still the biggest. Spirited Away I rechecked. Your Name will be close to Spirited Away. Will compile some free time. Asia alone will be $365mn for Your Name, Europe and Americas will be $15mn more easily.

Yeah I think pretty certain now. Even if we are going 25% weekly drops from here, (which is something Frozen 2 had in December before Xmas), it will have Xmas and New Year bump. Projecting Date Weekly % +/- LW To Date Week Oct 10-16 ¥1,268,725,000 ¥1,268,725,000 0 Oct 17-23 ¥6,444,058,000 407.92% ¥7,712,783,000 1 Oct 24-30 ¥5,458,449,000 -15.29% ¥13,171,232,000 2 Oct 31-Nov 06 ¥4,850,000,000 -11.15% ¥18,021,232,000 3 Nov 07-13 ¥3,000,000,000 -38.14% ¥21,021,232,000 4 Nov 14-20 ¥2,400,000,000 -20.00% ¥23,421,232,000 5 Nov 21-27 ¥1,920,000,000 -20.00% ¥25,341,232,000 6 Nov 28-Dec 04 ¥1,536,000,000 -20.00% ¥26,877,232,000 7 Dec 05-11 ¥1,075,200,000 -30.00% ¥27,952,432,000 8 Dec 12-18 ¥806,400,000 -25.00% ¥28,758,832,000 9 Dec 19-25 ¥927,360,000 15.00% ¥29,686,192,000 10 Dec 26-Jan 01 ¥1,298,304,000 40.00% ¥30,984,496,000 11 Jan 02-08 ¥1,168,473,600 -10.00% ¥32,152,969,600 12 Jan 09-15 ¥701,084,160 -40.00% ¥32,854,053,760 13 Jan 16-22 ¥490,758,912 -30.00% ¥33,344,812,672 14 Jan 23-29 ¥368,069,184 -25.00% ¥33,712,881,856 15 Jan 30-Feb 05 ¥257,648,429 -30.00% ¥33,970,530,285 16 Feb 06-12 ¥180,353,900 -30.00% ¥34,150,884,185 17 Thanks to the Exchange rates, it will be crossing $300mn in Japan itself, reaching $325mn perhaps. It will have a good chance at beating Spirited Away worldwide gross for biggest Japanese film in $. Local currency may be tough.

I thing everyone must understand is that if a film get audience rallied up on day one, it is bound to have a low mathematical multi. It is better to look at absolute numbers it does after that. Endgame is one of the 4 films to gross $500mn after first weekend in USA. TFA, Titanic and Avatar. Similarily, DH2 did $213mn after its opening weekend. That is second highest for a Potter film after Sorcerer Stone. DH1 did $170mn after weekend boosted by the Thanksgiving.

Seems like 900k in usual locs today.

I wonder, if TENET overperformance is also due to open market as DS is supposedly being helped by lack of competition. I wonder if we could have seen that, if Detective Chinatown in China had released instead of The Eight Hundred.

I think TFA Dom & UK are crazy. The problem is these markets have high screen presence which make run frontloaded. Japan has a low 375 theaters for 130mn people, so business is spread out. TFA in USA alone, beat Avatar by 26%. In UK it beat Skyfall 20%. That will be achieved by DS, if it does ¥40Bn & ¥38.5Bn respectively. Though one thing to consider is that, in Japan due to almost zero inflation there is disadvantage. DS if beat SA gross, it will also beat its Admission. While TFA didn't beat the footfalls of modern era topper Titanic in those two markets. Comparing two markets run is tough. If have to do, I think just Hollywood market in India will make a good case for Endgame. I don't think more than 100mn people in India watch Hollywood films by any medium. Endgame had 22mn in theater. Endgame beat the previous best by 49% in Gross & 3rd best by (since Infinity War is 2nd) by 72%. In term of initial pace, Endgame was 3.5x no. 3 The Jungle Book in weekend, 4.2x in Week 1. 3 weeks total being 2.7x. In terms of footfalls, the footfall were "not real clear", 0-10% higher than Titanic in 1998. Coincidentally footfall DS targetting is 22mn.

Need 875k in usual locations for that. Tough but possible.

This will have 4th weekend over the previous record of Yo Kai easily.

Found another Indian film, which actually might be close for 3rd weekend too but reporting at that time is very vague. Kabhi Khushi Kabhie Gham in 2001 had first weekend of ₹120mn Approx, previous record was ₹87mn Approx. The 2nd weekend would be around ₹100mn while 3rd around ₹75mn Approx.

Another film to do twice is 3 Idiots in India. 2nd weekend was ₹487mn, over the previous weekend record of ₹415mn. The 3rd weekend was 60% of previous record.

So another film to do for two weeks. Though discussion was for Weekend record but don't think Week will change things much, though there are weeks with all days holiday in Japan, if that change anything for Demon Slayer there.

I don't think something of that sorts has happened in any market across world in modern times. Baahubali 2 did beat the previous record in 2nd weekend in India, but not 3rd. Similarly Return of the Jedi in USA/Canada had 2 weekend above weekend record, 3rd was 82% of record. Avengers: Endgame in Netherlands had 2 weekend above previous record of Infinity War but the 3rd was just 43% of record. If there was no Endgame, The Lion King would have achieved in Netherlands. It had 4 weekends above the previous record of Infinity War but only opening weekend over Endgame.

WTF. That much wrong. 268k outta nowhere. Week 0 - ¥1.269Bn Week 1 - ¥6.444Bn Week 2 - ¥5.455Bn (-15.4%) Total - ¥13.168Bn or $125.4mn

This was pretty solid start. It has enough of Baby Yoda to make it good. Just like S01 nothing of importance to overall story happen except the last second cliffhanger. There is very smooth transition from normal aspect ratio to IMAX, which do convey the BIGNESS of that scene.

Seems like 150k usual locations. That will give 215k overall. In gross around -55% last week. Unless ofcourse there's an error.

Day Date Daily To Date % +/- YD / LW* Daily in $ To Date in $ Day Fri 16 Oct 20 ¥1,268,725,000 ¥1,268,725,000 $12,037,200 $12,037,200 1 Sat 17 Oct 20 ¥1,701,723,000 ¥2,970,448,000 $16,145,400 $28,182,600 2 Sun 18 Oct 20 ¥1,652,670,000 ¥4,623,118,000 -2.88% $15,680,000 $43,862,600 3 Mon 19 Oct 20 ¥765,350,000 ¥5,388,468,000 -53.69% $7,254,500 $51,117,100 4 Tue 20 Oct 20 ¥548,475,000 ¥5,936,943,000 -28.34% $5,193,900 $56,311,000 5 Wed 21 Oct 20 ¥620,000,000 ¥6,556,943,000 13.04% $5,938,700 $62,249,700 6 Thu 22 Oct 20 ¥464,840,000 ¥7,021,783,000 -25.03% $4,435,500 $66,685,200 7 Fri 23 Oct 20 ¥691,000,000 ¥7,712,783,000 48.65% -45.54% $6,599,800 $73,285,000 8 Sat 24 Oct 20 ¥1,500,945,000 ¥9,213,728,000 117.21% -11.80% $14,335,700 $87,620,700 9 Sun 25 Oct 20 ¥1,540,504,000 ¥10,754,232,000 2.64% -6.79% $14,713,500 $102,334,200 10 Mon 26 Oct 20 ¥609,000,000 ¥11,363,232,000 -60.47% -20.43% $5,800,000 $108,134,200 11 Tue 27 Oct 20 ¥393,000,000 ¥11,756,232,000 -35.47% -28.35% $3,753,600 $111,887,800 12 Wed 28 Oct 20 ¥503,000,000 ¥12,259,232,000 27.99% -18.87% $4,822,600 $116,710,400 13 Seems like 185k usual locations today, that will be a really nice 22% weekly drop. Week 2 overall will be ¥5.6Bn, just 20% down from Week 1. 25% weekly drops from here will take it to ¥29.5Bn. It needs 22.5% weekly drop for taking down SA, which I still think is hard.

Frozen isn't the record. Spirited Away and Titanic are record.

Guess ¥395mn/$3.75mn today. -28% last week. Total ¥11.76Bn/$112mn.

Seems like nice set up, will check it out.

I think Japan isn't impacted by piracy and screen count has remained around same level so there isn't much frontloaded ness. However I still feel, a film had better theatrical prospects 20 years ago than today in developed markets. So matching SA will be bigger feat than what SA did. Also today we have these Premium formats which cost more, and yet ATP is similar, so I wonder if ATP of normal tickets is lower or something.

Rang Titel Verleih Woche Besuche Wochenende Besuche gesamt 1 Es ist zu Deinem Besten Const/STCanal 2 8.274 21.734 2 Drachenreiter Constantin 1 7.396 9.933 3 Geheime Garten, Der Const/STCanal 1 7.432 9.933 4 Brave Mädchen tun das nicht Polyfilm 4 5.460 33.176 5 Tenet Warner Bros 8 4.631 170.233 6 Frau mit berauschenden Talenten, Eine Panda 2 4.246 11.111 7 After Truth Constantin 7 3.258 120.640 8 Gott, du kannst ein Arsch sein! Const/Leonine 3 3.261 18.694 9 Ooops! 2 - Land in Sicht Const/Telepool 4 3.171 19.845 10 Follow Me Polyfilm 9 2.597 38.303 Another good hold for TENET, seems like will hit 190k admits. May be 200k if keeps legging till year end. More than double of Dunkirk and par Interstellar.

My list goes like this. Won't include the ones I rated below 5. Schindler's List Jurassic Park Bridge of Spies Saving Private Ryan The Adventures of Tin Tin The Post Catch Me If You Can Ready Player One E.T. Lincoln If I can give negative ratings -1. Indiana Jones: Temple of Doom -2. Close Encounters of Third Kind

Seems like 265k Usual locations. That would mean 375k Approx overall admits and 520mn Approx gross. About 32% down from last week.