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Old Spice

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Everything posted by Old Spice

  1. Old Spice
    This.
  2. Old Spice
    That Good Liar number is just laughable, the latest of WB's fall bellyflops. Fortunately for them, it only cost $10M, with WB on the hook for 3/4 of that, so basically just a few days give or take of Jokah's profits. Looked at in the aggregate, they're going to report a really nice 4th quarter, but when you parse out the details, it's shocking how many they've missed on. Still thinking Richard Jewell has breakout potential for year end if it gets solid reviews.
  3. Old Spice
    Salt Lake Cinemark Sugarhouse preview night report for Ford vs Ferarri and Charlie's Angels. 3:45 PM local time. Ford v Ferarri, 4 showtimes. Total tix sold- 74/310 23.9% Comps 137% of Rocketman = $35.2M OW 73% of Godzilla = $35M 67% of John Wick = $37.9M Charlie, 3 showtimes. Total tix sold- 12/186 6.5% Really nice comeback by FvF on the final day, and I'm guessing with those stellar reviews and the relative lack of competition for the adult market this could be setting up for a leggy run through the holidays. I'll go with an OW of $36.5 and a final of $110M. Charlie's trajectory hasn't shifted at all since tix went on sale. It's just dead, the latest example of "Why go to the theater for a non-event movie when you can just stream it in four months?" I'll go with an OW of $10.3 and a final of $25M. Will update on F2 presales this weekend.
  4. Old Spice
    If Jewell is anywhere near as good as that trailer... 👍
  5. Old Spice
    It seems like every day the gulf between the 'haves' and the 'have-nots' grows bigger. Since my last report, Charlie's Angels has doubled its preview night presale at Salt Lake's Cinemark Sugarhouse... from 1 to 2. Ford vs Ferarri has sold one additional ticket today and is now up to 29 despite having two additional showtimes added. Joker, Frozen, TROS, and Jumanji for the win and everything else perishes. I fear A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood will be the next casualty. 😪
  6. Old Spice
    Salt Lake Preview Night update for Salt Lake City Cinemark Sugarhouse, Ford vs Ferarri and Charlie's Angels. Ford vs Ferarri Two showtimes (but neither is ideal; 6:00 and 9:25 PM) Total tix sold 20/214 Charlie Three showtimes Total tix sold 1/186 After Doctor Sleep I feel gun-shy about predicting anything anymore, but FvF has good awareness around here and I could easily see it doing Rocketman or Downton Abbey numbers. Charlie is absolutely stillborn, but if PWF can open to $12M I suppose this can too. Will update Thursday afternoon.
  7. Old Spice
    Really enjoyed Doctor Sleep once the damn thing started. The problem was it took forever to do so. 10-12 minutes of ads and 3-4 trailers and sundry corporate housekeeping, and suddenly a 12:10 screening doesn't start until 12:35. The trailers I don't mind (Richard Jewell really looked great on the big screen) but the other stuff... Makes me wonder if the people in charge of the major theater chains actually ever go out to movies themselves? 😒
  8. Old Spice
    Great, thank you! 👍
  9. Old Spice
    I was just about to ask a question about theater counts. I thought I recalled that after the BOM redesign fiasco someone said that The Numbers was now showing that. But I don't see that info anywhere (other than the daily box office chart.) Is there a link like BOM used to have that shows counts for the upcoming weekend?
  10. Old Spice
    Doctor Sleep finally woke up in Salt Lake today and now has a Thursday night presale roughly equal the combined count for Last Christmas and Midway. Midway is a very distant third behind the first two. I didn't even bother looking at PWF. Based on what I'm seeing here, a $23-25 OW for Sleep definitely seems doable.
  11. Old Spice
    Yep.
  12. Old Spice
    The top three are all languishing in Salt Lake, but they look like EG compared to Playing With Fire which hasn't sold a single ticket yet for tomorrow night's previews.
  13. Old Spice
    Biggest single input to the weekly global total is the U.S. and it's holding like a champ here. Tuesday down just 29% from the previous week.
  14. Old Spice
    Frozen 2, Salt Lake Cinemark Sugarhouse preview night, after 13 hours. Total tix sold- 76 Only two comps TROS- 423 Joker -32
  15. Old Spice
    Joker less than the original projection of 700k?
  16. Old Spice
    I haven't talked to anybody over the past week who has said, "I'd love to go to that new Terminator movie, but man...it just sounds so damn woke." I've talked to a lot of people who have said: "They're making another Terminator movie?" which is usually followed by a WTF shrug. That's why we're getting a sub $30 opening.
  17. Old Spice
    Dark Universe...
  18. Old Spice
    Dark Fate midday in Salt Lake City is outselling Joker 2.66 to 1 and Mal 2.25 to 1. Assuming those ratios maintain and Joker lands at the high end of most estimates ($13M), that would translate to an OW of $37M. ($34.58 + $2.35 previews). Using the same math for Mal would yield $31.6.
  19. Old Spice
    Nice bump in the Ford vs Ferarri prediction. I'd love to see that pan out. Ditto the total for A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. November is looking like a quality month with those two along with Knives and Frozen 2. (And Doctor Sleep; I'm looking forward to that one as well.) I think Richard Jewell will open higher than $13M unless it's doing a JoJo Rabbit style rollout. That trailer has generated a lot of positive buzz.
  20. Old Spice
    Terminator: Dark Fate preview night report for Salt Lake City, 3:30 local time. Cinemark Sugarhouse, six showings. (Don't shoot me, I'm just the messenger.) 29/433 6.7 % Comps: 8.1% of It: Chapter 2 = $7.37M OW 7.7% of Joker = $7.40M 15.6% of Pika= $8.49M 36% of Dark Phoenix = $11.89M 28.7% of Godzilla = $13.72M 29.2% of Hobbs and Shaw = $23.51M Halloween must be skewing this tremendously, because these numbers don't make sense on any level. But make of them what you will. I also checked Friday, to see if that would indicate a delayed pop from all the other stuff going on tonight, but those numbers are dreadful too: 31/878 3.5% So like any good b.o. analyst, I'm just going to ignore all the data and go with what my gut tells me. With the RT score approaching 70%, this gets decent WOM and good walkups over the weekend, and makes it to $31-33M. And it's a longggg time before we see another Terminator movie in theaters.
  21. Old Spice
    28th-29th.
  22. Old Spice
    Nice hold for Joker Man against game 7 of the World Series. Down just 34% from last week.
  23. Old Spice
    Just over 28 hours until the first preview night screenings start in Salt Lake, and at the Cinemark Sugarhouse Dark Fate is currently at 25% of Dark Phoenix's Thursday afternoon presale total. Just to get up to that is going to take a yeoman effort, but in the last 18 or so hours there's been almost no activity... maybe four tickets sold? Paramount in their worst nightmare probably never thought that they would end 2019 without a single film in the top 25 domestic.
  24. Old Spice
    Just picked up my Ford vs Ferarri tix. Weird time to release them though; almost 1:00 AM on the East Coast... 🤔
  25. Old Spice
    I hadn't even checked on Terminator in Salt Lake until just a few moments ago and, yikes... it's doing baaaad. Like, Gemini Man levels of bad. Total of 10 tickets sold for Preview Night so far at the Cinemark Sugarhouse. Barring a walkup miracle like Hobbs and Shaw pulled off, I can't see this opening much north of $30M, if that.
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