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Menor the Destroyer

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Everything posted by Menor the Destroyer

  1. Menor the Destroyer
    The TFri/preview ratio, if it comes in on the high end of estimates, won't be far off of what DS had back in the day...
  2. Menor the Destroyer
    Deadline lowballed (I believe it was intentional, even early MTC data was looking higher than their estimate) at 16m true Friday in their midday update. People basically assumed that this was the final number and panicked based on that. I actually was afraid that they were right and I was seeing the MTC data wrong because they were very accurate for both F9 and BW but now I think they lowballed this on purpose.
  3. Menor the Destroyer
    PostTrak 5 stars is easier than A+. Many A films get it.
  4. Menor the Destroyer
    I'm thinking a strong A. A+ is very hard. Even IW and GOTG didn't get an A+. Endgame, BP, and Avengers were all massive event movies.
  5. Menor the Destroyer
    In the run that finished about 10 minutes ago (it took 2.5 hours!!) Shang-Chi was at 200433. It has already doubled what I had for TSS final at MTC2. Final should be 225k minimum but most likely higher than that (would comp to at minimum 18.2 with TSS).
  6. Menor the Destroyer
    This makes much more sense with the MTC data than the Deadline update. Fingers crossed that the numbers you saw are correct. I guess if it's 4-day then it's in line with the Deadline update, so idk. Ok good. 3-day.
  7. Menor the Destroyer
    At Keyser's 5:30 PM PST update BW was at around 726k between the two MTC. @keysersoze123 I don't know if you are planning on doing that update today, but if Deadline's estimate is accurate, Shang-Chi should be around 450k between the two MTC at that point.
  8. Menor the Destroyer
    If I went one month back to around TSS opening and told everyone that Shang-Chi was doing a 16m true Friday on the way to a high 50s opening, I wonder what the general reaction would be...I remember predicting 58m OW around that time and I was well on the optimistic side.
  9. Menor the Destroyer
    Would need around 590k between the two MTC. That borders on impossible at this point. Still my feeling is that this is going over Deadline's projection. Even 500k would probably lead to 16.5 and that would be if it ran at exactly 60% of BW's pace the rest of the way (the morning should have been in the 70%s range at least if not 80%). If this were July I would be saying 17+ but of course I was way too high on BW (I was saying 30m true Friday in the midday) so Deadline's track record is better.
  10. Menor the Destroyer
    See tracking thread, I did a breakdown of where it should be vs BW. I am going by Keyser's numbers for today. My runtime is too long and because of that I massively overpredicted BW's Friday.
  11. Menor the Destroyer
    Many fans didn't watch all the MCU movies in the past, I don't see why the shows would be much different. If SC does only 16m on Friday (remember this estimate is very early) my takeaway would more be that fans are shifting habits to Thursday quicker than I expected.
  12. Menor the Destroyer
    Man, I would wait for some later estimates before all this doomposting. Deadline has been very accurate recently but you can only be so accurate from numbers this early (and in the past they were known to lowball although recently they have not done so).
  13. Menor the Destroyer
    I posted something in the tracking thread but TL;DR from MTCs alone it appears that Deadline is lowballing but they have been more accurate than MTC tracking for Friday. So I would go with their estimate for now and hope for an overperformance.
  14. Menor the Destroyer
    This seems like it is 1.5 hours later than the BW update, which then added 210k combined in the next 6 hours (so probably under 50k in 1.5 hours). Deadline's projection is surprising to me in this case as it seems like it should already be around 64% of BW's Friday in admits (16.83 million and the pure admits comp gave around 8.5 yesterday). The ratio should increase with walkups too. However, Deadline has been very accurate this summer so I am hesitant to go against them. Maybe it will die in night walkups like BW did.
  15. Menor the Destroyer
    My worry is that I bet most of the critics who saw it at the festival are familiar with the book. What will critics who are not familiar think of it?
  16. Menor the Destroyer
    I'm still looking forward to this but generally first reviews from a festival should be quite positive. It is still positive here but there are more negatives than I expected. And (more concerning) the flaws mentioned seem like things that will kill the appeal to general audiences.
  17. Menor the Destroyer
    From a quick survey the reviews seem pretty good although there are definitely a few negatives.
  18. Menor the Destroyer
    Probably needs 20m today to have a chance on that. Probably would need 8.8-20-22-20 or thereabouts (I think the Sat bump will be depressed since families are more Delta-hesitant). I am a bit more cautious than @keysersoze123 since the targets he has set for 20 million look a bit tough, so I would say it's going a bit below that, especially since this seems to be MTC-heavy. But it's not that tough imo.
  19. Menor the Destroyer
    Yeah MTCs did overindex relative to BW. Like I said in the tracking thread TSS will be a better comp moving forward as the MTC-heaviness was almost identical to that one.
  20. Menor the Destroyer
    Porthos and Inception are two of our regular trackers though so you cannot just exclude their predictions. I was definitely too high but I would say the tracking thread overall was right on.
  21. Menor the Destroyer
    I would say compared to F9, it does. F9 had a much better virus situation and was also a theatrical exclusive, though it had much less from Canada so some of that evens out.
  22. Menor the Destroyer
    But that was intentional since Porthos thought that ATP would cancel out with Sacto overperformance. I would say it was a smart move.
  23. Menor the Destroyer
    This seems like around a similar point for BW. I would say it's a good start. Hopefully gets strong walkups throughout the day.
  24. Menor the Destroyer
    No idea. My run takes too long for this high of a show count to be of much use in real time. Will have to wait for Keyser.
  25. Menor the Destroyer
    So TSS comp ended up almost being bang on. Will be useful for Friday.
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