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Menor the Destroyer

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Everything posted by Menor the Destroyer

  1. Menor the Destroyer
    BW did open before the vaccine pass. So I guess the better comparison may be TSS where it is ~2.3x the OD. Though I'm not sure if the vaccine pass effect has gone down since then.
  2. Menor the Destroyer
    I have been suspecting that this might happen for a while. Probably will not do that well in Asia. But hopefully the scores improve and my fear is unfounded.
  3. Menor the Destroyer
    It's for sure surpassing my targets for 9 (I think even 165k and 115k might suffice for that given the huge ATP diff + Canada). 10 seems tough unless it really explodes tomorrow but fingers crossed. Ehh maybe, since this is theatrical exclusive it should have a significantly better trend than BW tomorrow. Have to wait and see.
  4. Menor the Destroyer
    We had about 5 tornado warnings today (currently in NJ) but tomorrow's forecast is beautiful. Sunny all day other than the early morning.
  5. Menor the Destroyer
    From that run and some partial data I had later I'm conservatively expecting 62k in tickets when Keyser posts. ATP will drop a bit so it will probably fall slightly short of your target. But not too far even if it only does 62k (ftr this would require a somewhat lower night bump than BW).
  6. Menor the Destroyer
    I disagree on this. Deadline making ridiculous 200 million projections from one day of PS that ignored the fact that TS4 opened presales way later than I2 should not make something qualify as a meltdown. It underperformed PS tracking by around 10-15 million which is not that bad. If it is meltdown-worthy it was entirely caused by Deadline going wild.
  7. Menor the Destroyer
    Which one? The last I took was in line with expectations. Generally Wednesday night is when the surge occurs. So I'm waiting for Keyser's end-of-day post to get a true sense of the day.
  8. Menor the Destroyer
    Hey hey hey, the Meltdown bar is clearly 68,033,544/72,017,777.
  9. Menor the Destroyer
    The T-1 comp being posted a couple hours later would likely depress that multi.
  10. Menor the Destroyer
    How can it be only 20% though? Canada is really overperforming that much?
  11. Menor the Destroyer
    Best episode so far for sure. Much bolder than previous ones.
  12. Menor the Destroyer
    Could be review bombing but I do think it's quite possible that this movie gets a much better reception in Western countries than in East Asia. Hard to say right now. SC definitely is getting review bombed on Google's rating though so there is the potential. Or I guess the third option is that it is not review bombing as such but that Koreans specifically hate it (but that doesn't translate outside of Korea).
  13. Menor the Destroyer
    24-hr pace on Tuesday for BW was around 12k so it is around 65%.
  14. Menor the Destroyer
    Is this a 24-hour pace? If so it's around 65% of BW's pace for Thursday in MTC2.
  15. Menor the Destroyer
    Yeah this is weird. I guess I'll figure out how to account for it tomorrow. Probably will not make a big difference anyway.
  16. Menor the Destroyer
    Sunday and Monday were both good overall. I suspect today won't be a bad day either based on my intermediate runs at MTC2.
  17. Menor the Destroyer
    I think it's normalization after yesterday seemed a bit too good to be true (86% of BW's pace was too big). Probably will trend better tomorrow.
  18. Menor the Destroyer
    We used to track that but it hasn't really made a difference to BO for a while.
  19. Menor the Destroyer
    It's definitely possible. I'm just a bit cautious since BW. Of course it had PA but even considering that the Saturday drop was very harsh. I'm wondering if part of that is just that the MCU is becoming more Friday loaded (so SC bump would be closer to 10% than the usual 20).
  20. Menor the Destroyer
    Considering current PS that seems rather tough. Though Fri/Sat are much more flexible than Thursday of course since they do more business in the last couple of days.
  21. Menor the Destroyer
    Ok. So yesterday night SC was at 78k MTC1 and 42k MTC2. BW was 123k at MTC1 a bit later and 80k at MTC2 a bit earlier. Current pace seems like 70% of BW at MTC1 and 60% of BW at MTC2 (estimating). If it just followed that exactly I suppose it would finish at 170k MTC1 and 117k MTC2. But it can probably do better (especially now that all July 4th weirdness with BW is out of the way). So maybe 175-180k MTC1 and 125k MTC2 is possible. Using a BW comp and taking a 10% higher ATP that would be 9.71. I think this will overstate things because it's heavily overindexing in MTC1 and major cities. Using a TSS comp it would get 9.3, that may be better since TSS had an MTC1 skew and a PLF skew like SC and (I think) didn't have matinees as well, with an R rating maybe adjust that comp down slightly.
  22. Menor the Destroyer
    I'm not sure about that. Yeah today could be fairly flat but Wednesday should be a strong increase since it's the day before. Even BW accelerated 50% on the Wednesday and this has been trending better. Btw @keysersoze123 I think you are reading my BW numbers a day off, it should be 80059 and 68709.
  23. Menor the Destroyer
    That's ridiculous. The "consensus" is generated by the aggregate of audience opinion and people have varied opinions on many things. That's the whole point of RT and Meta.
  24. Menor the Destroyer
    Yeah but CM's opening was too big for SC to match. I doubt it would even get close. F9 could have matched Hobbs and Shaw. So F9 would be well ahead.
  25. Menor the Destroyer
    In normalcy F9 should have destroyed Shang-Chi. So if it wins despite piracy I don't think it would be incredibly surprising.
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