Menor the Destroyer
-
Posts
9,547 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
16
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Blogs
Gallery
Annual Subscriptions
Media Demo
Everything posted by Menor the Destroyer
-
Not happening. I am very confident in this. The increase may be small but it will increase. -
Deadline is saying 19.67 million for Saturday lmao. They are spinning so much BS this weekend just so they can keep saying it "overperformed"
-
Frankly a 30 OD is really great. DS's OD/Th ratio was 3.47. For this to get 3.41 5 years later, with a fanbase that is a lot more solidified, is excellent.
-
Ok. In what universe can 29.7 be an "ew"? That is a 21 million true Friday.
-
80+ depends on the Saturday. I'm not sure if it will have quite a big enough bump to do so. Still F9 is toast for sure.
-
Frankly I thought EG and IW both had great pacing. Was never bored during either one.
-
Looking into it, your analogy does open up some...interesting possibilities. I guess adjust up that high end Sunday by 1-2 million. But realistically I don't think it will hold that well.
-
Maybe. We don't have any openers of this scale on Labor Day to compare, so used BP and adjusted down slightly since the WOM is not quite as good.
-
After seeing Keyser's latest post in the Tracking thread I feel this will be done unless there is some weird surprise. On the higher end it can go 8.8-21-25.2-22.7 for a 77.8 OW. Obviously this is not the bar for success but I believe it is possible. Even if it does 8.8-20.5-23-20 it will do it.
-
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Menor the Destroyer replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
By morning I suppose it will be ahead of Fri. Could have quite a solid increase actually. Especially since given the walkup trend today it's not playing frontloaded. -
Even if it had come in at 16 you would have been closer than a lot of people on this board were before PS started. Frankly I don't quite understand why there seems to be such a negative attitude here toward high predictions. Nobody is obligated to take those predictions as a bar for success.
-
The TFri/preview ratio, if it comes in on the high end of estimates, won't be far off of what DS had back in the day...
-
Deadline lowballed (I believe it was intentional, even early MTC data was looking higher than their estimate) at 16m true Friday in their midday update. People basically assumed that this was the final number and panicked based on that. I actually was afraid that they were right and I was seeing the MTC data wrong because they were very accurate for both F9 and BW but now I think they lowballed this on purpose.
-
PostTrak 5 stars is easier than A+. Many A films get it.
-
I'm thinking a strong A. A+ is very hard. Even IW and GOTG didn't get an A+. Endgame, BP, and Avengers were all massive event movies.
-
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Menor the Destroyer replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
In the run that finished about 10 minutes ago (it took 2.5 hours!!) Shang-Chi was at 200433. It has already doubled what I had for TSS final at MTC2. Final should be 225k minimum but most likely higher than that (would comp to at minimum 18.2 with TSS). -
This makes much more sense with the MTC data than the Deadline update. Fingers crossed that the numbers you saw are correct. I guess if it's 4-day then it's in line with the Deadline update, so idk. Ok good. 3-day.
-
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Menor the Destroyer replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
At Keyser's 5:30 PM PST update BW was at around 726k between the two MTC. @keysersoze123 I don't know if you are planning on doing that update today, but if Deadline's estimate is accurate, Shang-Chi should be around 450k between the two MTC at that point. -
If I went one month back to around TSS opening and told everyone that Shang-Chi was doing a 16m true Friday on the way to a high 50s opening, I wonder what the general reaction would be...I remember predicting 58m OW around that time and I was well on the optimistic side.
-
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Menor the Destroyer replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
Would need around 590k between the two MTC. That borders on impossible at this point. Still my feeling is that this is going over Deadline's projection. Even 500k would probably lead to 16.5 and that would be if it ran at exactly 60% of BW's pace the rest of the way (the morning should have been in the 70%s range at least if not 80%). If this were July I would be saying 17+ but of course I was way too high on BW (I was saying 30m true Friday in the midday) so Deadline's track record is better. -
See tracking thread, I did a breakdown of where it should be vs BW. I am going by Keyser's numbers for today. My runtime is too long and because of that I massively overpredicted BW's Friday.
-
Many fans didn't watch all the MCU movies in the past, I don't see why the shows would be much different. If SC does only 16m on Friday (remember this estimate is very early) my takeaway would more be that fans are shifting habits to Thursday quicker than I expected.
-
Man, I would wait for some later estimates before all this doomposting. Deadline has been very accurate recently but you can only be so accurate from numbers this early (and in the past they were known to lowball although recently they have not done so).
-
I posted something in the tracking thread but TL;DR from MTCs alone it appears that Deadline is lowballing but they have been more accurate than MTC tracking for Friday. So I would go with their estimate for now and hope for an overperformance.
