Menor the Destroyer
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Everything posted by Menor the Destroyer
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Weekday Numbers: Dec 23 - Dec 26, 2019
Menor the Destroyer replied to JB33's topic in Numbers and Data
EG's 2nd Friday wasn't much bigger than its non holiday Monday, hell even TFA's Christmas Day Friday had a less than 25% bump. This has a super boosted holiday Monday and will have burned through a ton of demand so I can see it happening. -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Menor the Destroyer replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
PSm should drop I'd think kinda like Thanksgiving. -
Weekday Numbers: Dec 23 - Dec 26, 2019
Menor the Destroyer replied to JB33's topic in Numbers and Data
TROS definitely has a bigger fan rush/frontloading than Desolation would have in its second week -
Weekday Numbers: Dec 23 - Dec 26, 2019
Menor the Destroyer replied to JB33's topic in Numbers and Data
I don't see any huge difference between 28.5 and 29.5... -
True, but it's more the fact that it's a Monday and people's ranges are going all over the place. I don't think I've ever seen the first Monday be very predictive of the film's legs, it's almost always pretty much in the expected drop range from the OW. I think Wednesday/Thursday/Friday will tell us much more.
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I'm not sure why people were assuming <500 million anyway. Monday numbers are totally in the expected range, no overperformance there so I think everyone just overreacted to the lower weekend.
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If this is the case, this Monday seems even stronger than the comparable one in 2013. F1 jumped only 6% vs F2 15% and Desolation of Smaug dropping 26% vs Jumanji sub 20%.
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I mean Disney is gonna spin this however they can but 17% Sunday drop going into a holiday week is not great.
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I don't think it's a total disaster but I'm saying the performance is not as impressive as ROTS.
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It already isn't performing like ROTS. ROTS 4-day was massive and blew away opening records (158 million 4-day when the three day record was 114 million, if it opened on a Friday it would have destroyed that record). Like I said BOM's numbers shouldn't be taken as actual admissions/attendance since the formula they use is very crude.
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Inflation adjusted the way BOM does it is not exactly the most accurate. ROTS peaked at #7 on the domestic chart TROS won't come even close to that. ROTS also had a huge increase from AOTC, OW was up 43% and final was 30% ahead. And btw that Titanic dismissal is just ridiculous, Titanic was in admissions way bigger than any of the ST as well.
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But where is the evidence that it's liked more than TLJ by audiences? Again people just throw this out there but it's scores are lower than TLJ across the board including both audience polls like CS and PostTrak and online metrics like IMDb.
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Star Wars openings skew older and more male. Looking at PostTrak for TLJ I'm not seeing a big difference in demographics between the two. Edit: at least from what Deadline reported for both films. I guess BOM has different data.
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Lol what kind of bs is Deadline saying. Practically everywhere it's below TLJ. Just one more reason not to trust Deadline.
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If you're talking just about comparison to TLJ then yeah. But the weekend drop will be far worse than say TFA. I doubt it will be better than 50%.
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That won't help the weekend very much if at all. It will boost the weekdays.
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Not every Marvel movie is liked in China. BP didn't have high ratings. Yet GOTG movies have some of the highest ratings of all the MCU. So space opera can clearly work with Chinese audiences if done in the right way.
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Opinions can differ on how much the reliance is, but the overall point is the same.
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Downward trend started with the bad rating of TFA there. The Disney films have been somewhat reliant on OT nostalgia and that obviously won't work in China.
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Guardians 1 and 2 are highly rated in China. So you can't blame the space opera genre for the performance of Star Wars there. In fact although the market was very small in 2005 ROTS did pretty well for a Hollywood blockbuster at that time.
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Friday was boosted though as many were on break. Also Saturday presales posted by @keysersoze123in the tracking thread were a bit weak so I'm assuming Charlie is seeing similar numbers.
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Sunday drop should be 10-20 unless toxic WOM. while WOM isn't ideal for this it doesn't seem toxic either.
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I think the opposite. It's such a callback and fanservice film, I think it will go over much worse with people for whom those callbacks mean less.
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Well 5/4400 is decent enough to get a representative sample. I agree it's not everything but another piece of evidence with the PostTrak that indicates audience reactions are worse than TLJ. Many in this thread had been arguing the opposite based on little evidence.
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Anyway there was never any indication this would have better word of mouth than TLJ. PostTrak scores were below TLJ as well and RT is not comparable due to the change in system. People exaggerate the "badness" of TLJ's reception by general audiences anyway.
