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Menor the Destroyer

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Everything posted by Menor the Destroyer

  1. Menor the Destroyer
    And a warthog!
  2. Menor the Destroyer
    That "+"...flashbacks to the Endgame 270-300+ range. Looks about right to me, though.
  3. Menor the Destroyer
    44327 at 1 PM, it will hit that 50k by 5 PM if it keeps this up, could optimistically hit 58k+ by the end of day which would imply about a $26 million Friday Of course Pulse is rough, so I won't raise my expectations that high unless confirmed by Charlie/Rth, but this seems like pretty stellar day-of business.
  4. Menor the Destroyer
    SLOP 2 won't quite be a nothingburger but the marketing is certainly a nothingburger compared to the first
  5. Menor the Destroyer
    Right now I'm gonna guess 7-24-28-26-21 for an 85 million 3-day, 106 million 4-day, that would be a pretty nice overperformance.
  6. Menor the Destroyer
    I'm thinking 100+ tbh, even the multiplier of Pirates 5 gets it to 99 and the Pulse sales for Friday (so far) are very strong. Still early days though.
  7. Menor the Destroyer
    True, but critics aren't against the very idea of a Marvel movie like they are with remakes
  8. Menor the Destroyer
    Oppositely to @Porthos I read too much into bad comps (Lego 2, Dragon 3), and downshifted too much. Still, not too horrible for my first time doing this sort of a prediction.
  9. Menor the Destroyer
    Switch the release dates I bet the RT scores will switch as well, the remakes were more of a novelty in 2017, but now that we're getting 3 a year critics are probably getting tired.
  10. Menor the Destroyer
    Today will be another test of how good Pulse is with dailies. At 9AM Aladdin had 38612 tickets sold. Yesterday it added 11-12k or so from 9AM, which would put Aladdin at 50k by the end of the day conservatively (I would expect Friday night to see more late buyers than Thursday, but at least not a drop). This would put the floor for Aladdin at 22 million using Dumbo and Pikachu which were the best-performing of my comps yesterday, with a chance to go significantly higher.
  11. Menor the Destroyer
    I just really can't see it being that presale heavy. If that was going to happen it should have shown itself on preview night, where its number was at the high end of non-holiday Fandango comps. Also I'm not sure the earlier preview start time makes that massive difference, plus POTC 5 was only 2 years ago. Seems like a definite lowball to me. I mean POTC even had a 78 million 4-day with significantly lower previews, I don't think the factors you mentioned really make up for that preview difference.
  12. Menor the Destroyer
    How are they still going with 73-85 million 4-day??? Also that PostTrack seems like an A/A- Cinemascore, definitely not A+
  13. Menor the Destroyer
    Damn, that's almost exactly what you predicted in the tracking thread right?
  14. Menor the Destroyer
    Hoping for 7, 25, 29, 28, 23 for 112 million 4-day
  15. Menor the Destroyer
    Idk, at least based on Fandango the Thursday wasn't all that presale-heavy, especially considering most schools are still in session (I think). It was only slightly more presale-heavy than Dumbo, and less so than Detective Pikachu. Maybe that changes for the weekend, but I'm not so sure right now
  16. Menor the Destroyer
    I don't really think Disney defeated the Memorial Day curse. Aladdin should've been a much bigger deal than this even with a better than expected opening.
  17. Menor the Destroyer
    He meant Friday will be better than expected based on presales
  18. Menor the Destroyer
    With a strong Friday bump and low Sunday drop, I won't be surprised by 90+ for the 3-day
  19. Menor the Destroyer
    Btw on Pulse Aladdin's sales for Friday have already surpassed Pika's Friday by a good margin despite the Thursday's not being all that different, fits with Charlie's tease of very good numbers
  20. Menor the Destroyer
    If that's the case then this could see over 100 million 3-day...
  21. Menor the Destroyer
    This is an estimate or an Asgardian number? Also what you were saying is the Friday presales look very good then?
  22. Menor the Destroyer
    So Aladdin's final Thursday number is 27394. Incredibles 2 - 7.89 Dumbo - 7.39 Solo - 5.74 (I messed this up last night) Dragon 3 - 5.88 Pika - 6.5 Lego 2 - 5.43 AMATW - 8.74 JW: FK - 9.1 Black Panther - 6.05 Captain Marvel - 5.43 so the animated sequels give similar results to the CBMs, very odd. I think the summer releases are bad comps, and I'd expect Dumbo to be more walkup heavy than this. gonna go with 6-6.5 for now.
  23. Menor the Destroyer
    Close enough to hold my range. I will look through an expanded list of comps in a bit
  24. Menor the Destroyer
    Fwiw, the sales on Pulse for Aladdin for today (as in Thursday preview tickets only) will probably end at 28kish. I2 comp gives around 8, Dumbo gives 7.55, Dragon 3 oddly gives just 6, Solo gives 7.25, Pika 6.9, BP (lol) gives 6.3. Gonna up my 6.5-7 to 7-7.5.
  25. Menor the Destroyer
    Endgame is also having a very strong day on Pulse, I think it could just be that a Disney release isn't going to get hit as hard by another Disney release
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