Menor the Destroyer

Dark Phoenix's Fandango presales from what I remember are below Far From Home for each day...a movie that is over a month out vs one opening in two weeks. Yikes.

I feel like some here are just really underrating the amount of buzz around TLK. Aladdin had negative buzz from the beginning, Lion King the exact opposite. The 3D rerelease did huge numbers. Trailer views are huge (both trailer 1 and 2). It scores super high on BOP trailer impact metrics of people who viewed it in theater. Huge amounts of people have seen the original when they were kids and still have nostalgia for it. Demographically, it has by far the widest appeal of the Disney remakes. There's just nothing pointing to it not being a hit at this stage.

And the jungle book was also a huge hit even with nowhere near as much hype as TLK

Pulse for Aladdin today suggests a similar drop to Solo, maybe 29.5 though a direct comp to Pika, Dumbo suggests 25 million but I don't think it'll play that way given this is a holiday

Memorial day weekend Sat jumps are lower though, so even 30+ will be difficult (though not impossible)

Now at 5 PM Aladdin Pulse is 43713, it has slowed down slightly, predicting more like 28-29 than my earlier 29-30 for Sat

Pulse added 6k since 9AM, about the same rate as yesterday. Suggests a ~29-30 million Sat, assuming its less presale heavy than Fri (like Pikachu was).

Thing is KFP2 is much more a pure family film than Aladdin, which hits a broader audience. I would expect a weaker bump than that, but stronger than the last couple of years Memorial Day openers at least.

Looking through CM's sales breakdown on the akvalley spreadsheet, a very high fraction of its early sales went to Thursday previews. FFH only has midnights, so presumably far fewer showings/seats available, and it's opening day is on a weekday, which would also depress sales. FFH's opening is gonna be really annoying to comp across the board.

I don't like the word "locked"...but I'm pretty sure 100+ 4-day is pretty close to that. 110 seems pretty likely as well since this will play better to families than stuff like Solo or POTC.

Thinking back on it you're right, it really isn't that similar to AQM. Would love to see it adapted to live action, but unfortunately it probably won't happen.

Maybe I'm just not remembering Atlantis very well but I remember being reminded of its underwater battle sequences when watching Aquaman

Atlantis had great spectacle but tbh it would come off as very similar to Aquaman if they made it now. The opportunity has passed.

Assuming Charlie's 24.4 million pure Friday holds then Aladdin played slightly more presale-heavy than Pikachu and Dumbo yesterday, which pointed to 25.5 and 26.2 respectively. Today it's at 32724 at 9 AM, down about 6k from yesterday. It added 20k from that point yesterday, I guess today it might do the same or a bit more (Saturday should be less presale heavy but also has stronger matinees). Say it ends at 54k. Exact comps with Dumbo and Pika give 31 and 34 million respectively with that number, so it might end up with a bit less, say 30 million. That would be a strong jump for a Memorial Day opener, if it can get there.

Wouldn't the Saturday bump be deflated a bit by Memorial Day though? From what I remember Panda 2 (mday) had a 41.7% bump compared to Panda 3 (January?) that was in the 70s

If Asgard can give us 0.5 million it'll be perfect. Feeling pretty good about that call now

I am comparing to other movies

You're looking at a different link. http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/fandango_daily.txt shows the tickets sold for each day.

50k crossed in the latest hour, no slow down at all. I'm getting more and more confident in that number (though obviously waiting on Asgard)

48690 at 4pm on Pulse, no slowdown and it will hit 50k or thereabouts at 5. It added 5k between 5pm and final on Thursday, I expect significantly higher for Friday so maybe 8kish, which puts it at 58k. Comps (throwing out those that were off by >1 million last night): I2: 34.9 (lol) Dumbo: 26.3 Pika: 25.6 BP: 20.1 (lol) So...7-26-31-28-22 = 114...maybe?

At this point I think even though the marketing was not ideal (to say the least), this can still qualify as breaking the Memorial Day curse. Yeah, Aladdin had a lot more potential than this, but there's still a positive energy building up around it that I haven't seen anything close to for the other recent Disney Memorial Day openers.

30 million is very good, I think it'll go higher though. The Fandango sales show no signs of slowing down, so a $23 million pure Friday would mean that it's significantly more presale/Pulse heavy than yesterday night.

To be fair, I'd expect Aladdin to have a better bump than the 10% of Alice 2 (from true Friday to Sat), simply because the WOM looks to be much better.

Maybe. I'd still be more comfortable saying a 20% or so bump.

I mean let's keep the expectations in check a little, the run rate could slow down, or the film could be more presale-heavy than yesterday, or any number of issues could crop up because I don't have a lot of experience extrapolating. Also, don't Memorial Day openers tend to have lower Saturday bumps? I'd think a 26 million friday would put it in the range of a 110-115 4-day weekend, 90ish 3-day (which would still be quite the overperformance).