Menor the Destroyer

I think yours and Inception's numbers are a bit early to get the typical Sunday night bump, which would likely be more reflected in tomorrow's updates. Could more reflect the Saturday numbers which were generally not great vs comps (although that is in itself not a great thing for Flash).

Yes, but these trends in buying tend to happen in a fairly predictable manner and there is a correlation between the behavior of those who are prebuying a week before and those who buy late. Not perfect but it's not as if we have to just throw up our hands and pretend that we don't know anything about where this is headed.

Temporarily, but Pulse at least was back up for a couple months after that. In fact the period after Endgame was when we figured out how to make the best use of Pulse and were even able to project dailies with it very early on. Fandango removed it from the app in one of their updates right before the release of Far From Home.

Woody and Buzz, Nemo, the Incredibles family, Simba/Mufasa/Scar are pretty iconic

Yeah I think Indy is doing ok. 100m still possible on higher end.

I have observed that Thu/Fri ratio can be artificially better for bigger films since they have presold more into the weekend anyway. Makes Flash a bit tough to comp since it's too big for the small stuff and too small for the big stuff. However MTC1, unlike other samples is fairly close to SV at the moment (75%ish), and is pretty significantly more Thu-heavy at 0.56 vs 0.66 (bucketing in the fan shows with Thu here). I tend to put more weight on that comp than Transformers which I feel like has a pretty different dynamic in terms of audience behavior and the EA makes Fri/Thu hard to comp.

It's a bit early to hone in on a number but I feel like it can go higher than that especially in IM. The middle of run sales have not been quite that dire and as Jat said Fri is well ahead of Transformers.

Really solid sales especially for Fri with still 40+ days to go. It's hard to comp this one but I definitely think 50m OW is in range even with Nolan's fanbase skewing things. Friday is not far behind where Dune was T-14 (a fanbase, PLF heavy film that also had the HBO Max release as a disadvantage). Though this staggered release is hard to read. Could you do one update tomorrow just to see the pace?

The thread can also be too high, though. So while it's important to consider all possibilities, that doesn't mean we should only consider variation in one direction. Just at the beginning of the year we had Avatar 2 and Quantumania which both finished poorly back to back (for different reasons). And in almost all of these cases the trendline usually has become fairly clear by now, it's just the extent of the rise/fall in expected value that is unclear. It's very rare (though not impossible) for something to truly change its trendline in the final week without some external factor like reviews or calendar.

I came up with the Thursday projection based on the current pace and how other recent films have finished. In fact, I've leaned toward the films that saw stronger pace bumps in the final week. For example, Transformers, which was selling similar daily numbers of raw tickets for combined previews+EA, added about 108k from this point (again combined), which would put Flash in the low 180k range and previews closer to 9m. So you can see that I've given Flash benefit of the doubt here in terms of having a solid final week trend. The FSS is based on general Fri weakness in tracking samples and normal CBM weekend trends with a strong Father's Day/pre Juneteenth Sunday. If you have a disagreement then put out your own number based on the data instead of just sniping at predictions you don't like.

With, but don't think they will do a whole lot. There are too few to make a big difference.

Overall number is better than other samples but the pace is very low. Probably looking at a 200k finish for about 10m (expecting it to be around 85k pure Thu by the end of Sunday). Like other samples Fri ratio is weaker than Verse so would go 10-17-19-19 for the weekend, about 65m.

It will obviously accelerate, that doesn't mean the comp values will increase because the movies being comped to also accelerated.

The trend is that it has been dropping against Black Adam lol. The BA comp being cited as evidence of this having a preview of 16m was in 23m after day 1 of sales! The Shazam comp was 31m! It will continue to drop as we enter the final week. You can't just take comp values literally like that.

Something off with ATSV tickets sold? It cannot be that high for T-7

Shazam did improve late but its presales were so ridiculously low that there wasn't even a proper CBM comp. Not the same scenario at all for Flash.

...that post was about Spiderverse lol

Quorum tends to be low for fanbase movies and Nolan has a very committed fanbase.

Beetle trailer isn't far below Flash in YouTube likes (and well ahead of the likes of Shazam) I don't think that Flash not being huge means it will flop. Standalone DC films can sometimes do surprisingly well if they strike a chord even when the universe stuff does worse than expected.

I mean we're making similar conclusions from the same data pretty much.

I will also note that Flash sales trend is pretty frontloaded to Thu in Drafthouse relative to Spiderverse, which also matches what I can see in other samples. I think it's quite possible that the IM is more like 6, with the caveat that smaller sales makes it harder to project farther out into the weekend.

Fairly limited review bump for Flash considering that this is the point in time where you'd expect to see bumps anyway. Will wait for tomorrow to see how it holds to take any hard conclusions from it, but it's not in a good spot considering it has no more catalysts until release.

I mean I don't know if there was a case where reviews didn't boost the pace. Even Eternals saw a minor boost. But the films that Flash is being comped to for the double digit previews values (SV, Black Adam) finished pretty well so it'll need a pretty strong boost to keep up.

Your point is that critics and audiences were misaligned on Fast X because Fast X got an 85% from audiences? 85% and B+ aren't good audience scores.

I think it will end up in the 70s. Probably just the initial batch of reviews was bad on RT and now it seems to have gone up.