Menor the Destroyer

90+ seems doable from these reactions, I think it'll have WF reviews at minimum. Not sure if the animal cruelty thing might turn people off (it surely will at least a bit, hopefully not too much).

Little Mermaid MTC3 Shows: 2885 Seats Sold: 2252/612517 Obviously don't have a great comp, but going by the current number for GOTG3 and making a rough guess as to how much of that was from D1, it's probably around 1/6 of that start, so probably a bit lower than what I've seen in some of the other reports. GOTG3 today was missing data from a few theaters so no data from there. Will go back to GOTG3 until release and then start updating Fast X and this.

Not too worried about reviews, I've got a good feeling about this one and all tea leaves are looking very good. WF reception was hurt less by tone and more by losing its star lead and pacing, this one may have the latter problem but at least won't have to deal with the former.

Meh. Still doesn't feel like anything fresh and the action doesn't look like anything special.

You have to adjust the raw number for Bat Sacto down a bit but yeah I agree I prefer it somewhat in terms of pace.

Thanks, btw the JWD comp for today seems off, total sold didn't change from yesterday.

FB3 will very likely be too small as well, and I think Potter has different fanbase dynamics. Minions 2 was such an outlier in late growth that I don't think it's a good comp for anything. But I don't have any good ideas for this, it's a tougher one for sure. It may be better to wait for the 24h and just throw in anything that sold a similar volume just to get a range.

Yeah I'm not looking for the actual value, just the pace. The pace is so far below JWD rn that it's hard to make sense of the trajectory.

I'm not convinced about that at all. Mario had a great ramp-up especially considering the size. Plus female-skewing films are more presale-heavy from what I've seen.

Shows: 5385 (+84) Sold: 41428/1099472 (+2237) Slightly more than 24 hours, I would say take more like 1.9-2k as the 24h pace.

Yeah I think comparing the audience scores of the first entry to sequels is dicey (not impossible, but you have to be aware of these factors). The audience for GOTG2 knew exactly what to expect from the film and was much more primed for the tone. Yep. It's also why I prefer Guardians 2 over the first, I think it leans more into the heart and emotions that make these movies special.

Ant 3 pace was 6100 after the premiere which made the comp drop but it dropped to 4400 today. I'm hopeful that Guardians can get close to or surpass the pace today without any help from the premiere or reactions/reviews. That would also put less pressure on having a really high review bump. LM I believe started last night at midnight but the Fandango alert came this morning. I wouldn't put any hopes on the BP2 or Thor comps improving significantly until after reviews. The AM3 comp is very likely going to start moving up from tomorrow's update.

I forget exactly when it started, is the F9 comp coming soon?

As far as scripts, I'm not sure how much coding experience you have but I think there are plenty of resources online for web scraping. You'll have to check the individual website to see which method works best. I tend to use Python, there are some basic web scraping libraries like BeautifulSoup and such or there is browser simulation like Selenium for pages that need to render JavaScript to show the seatmaps. Generally you want to find all the showtime links for a particular movie and be able to navigate to each link and count all the seats (Inspect Element is your friend in terms of finding out the particular page structure and what to search for in your code). As far as keeping the data I think a spreadsheet of some sort is the best format.

My base case is that I think it'll be more or less steady from yesterday on Tuesday and Wednesday and maybe a larger jump on Thursday with the premiere into the 4k+ range (so just about 125k), and then assuming fairly good reviews a sizeable jump on Friday to a daily pace of 8k+ (as we've seen with reaction bumps for other movies and this is a double catalyst of reactions+reviews). From there I think it paces around 80% of BPWF dailies (raw numbers) for the rest of the run, with perhaps a worse Sat+Sun as the review bump wears off a bit but a somewhat better Tuesday+Wednesday trend as BPWF did have the midterms sucking up media attention. That will put it close to 19m previews. (I did read your post fully and I know it would be an outlier going by growth rate, but I just feel like this has good reason to behave abnormally. Is it my bias trying to create a better scenario for this? Perhaps, but I don't think it's unreasonable that buying patterns for the MCU have shifted a bit with repeated disappointments and more pertinently that the very late premiere relative to recent big MCU films also creates some modeling issues. We'll see how it goes. If it lands more in the range that you've predicted then props and that would be a big win for modeling by growth rate)

Guardians MTC3 Shows: 5301 (+13) Sold: 39191/1085987 (+1586) So this sets the baseline pace, let's see how it increases through the week.

Yes. It needs strong reviews. BW added 160k from this point, Guardians pace is similar to what BW was doing but BW already had the reviews out. If Guardians reviews can provide a further catalyst then that number is reachable. I expect them to do just that, but review bumps are not always predictable.

I think the finish is doable, the most optimistic part seems to be 6k Thu, if it gets there then the rest just seems like a normal MCU trend (I would say probably drop in pace on T-5 with that being Saturday post reviews followed by a bigger recovery on T-4). But we need to either see strong recovery this week or a big bump post reviews. For 100m I guess it would only need 16-17 and I don't think that needs anything special, it just needs to not collapse like AM3. The smaller starting value makes it easier to have a higher growth rate compared to the big 2022 comps.

The preview comps can absolutely increase significantly with a good final week. As for multi it should be able to clear 6, but 7-8x is impossible.

Guardians 3 MTC3 Total Shows: 5288 Total Sold: 37605/1080635 This is the first time I'm tracking this chain and the ratio of reserved/non-reserved seating makes it difficult to compare with other data, so no comps as of now. But it'll be nice to have this for upcoming CBMs like Flash/Spiderverse etc.

I am not worried about Guardians opening under 100 or anything like that either. T-17 to T-10 was bad, but I think those days are still more in the fan buying period of sales. From T-10 you generally see movies with longer PS periods start to bump and I think that's where the GA starts paying more attention to sales. My expectation is that Guardians will play more like other MCU sequels and have bumps throughout this week rather than AM3 which stagnated after reactions. If it does so then after its review boost on Friday it can pace on par with WF/Thor and way ahead of AM3, which would lead to a strong final week. Of course this could all be denial as the Guardians are my favorite MCU characters and I don't want to see this flop, but I do think that the fanbase/GA interest ratio here is much different than AM3 and that will show this week. If by next Sunday the relative pace hasn't improved too much vs Thor/WF and is closer to Ant-Man then I will start to get on the doom train.

Maybe a small boost, I doubt anything like what the usual post-premiere boost of double or more is.

Trailer kinda felt like it had more buzz than any of the SW trailers since Kenobi. I feel like this show in particular though is something that could very easily overindex with an online fanbase so who knows how it translates to viewership.

Hmm...I have mixed feelings. It was entertaining but didn't really have the impact of previous season finales.

I thought the Guardians clips were fine and the Marvels trailer was good. Have never had a problem with humor in superhero movies except Thor 4.