Menor the Destroyer

EG IW GOTG3 GOTG2 TA

Since we don't have any Asgard numbers yet, I would guess 39ish Sat from the same source/method we used for A2. Usual caveats, smaller chain and high variance etc.

The PostTrak scores for women (still 35% of the audience, not negligible) are every bit as glowing as they are for men.

Eh, I'm quite happy with nobody dying since I think the movie hit all the emotion it needed to despite that. This was fantastic and I definitely think it can had legs. I didn't find it "dark" or "grim" as reviews were suggesting, it's a feel-good film with such a sweet ending and I can't wait to see it again.

Ah, I see. Definitionally that ratio must be the same for the comp value as it was for the film that is generating that comp value, so I don't see how it could be off. Unless the comp values themselves are wrong.

GOTG2 was like 97% CGV. They had great reception, just smaller audience.

With Sat ratio better in PS compared to QM (+17%) was expecting closer to +22% for this if WOM similar, could be closer to 30 with much stronger WOM. Similarly would expect Sun -30 but maybe could be -25 or so. Not massive changes but enough to affect the IM.

I mean...it kinda does. Good WOM generally helps the Sat bump and Sun hold.

What do you mean by PSM here? My usual interpretation of that phrase would imply Final/PS, but we don't have a final number.

It is quite literally not comparable, at least by your standards, because your comparison involves movies with good reviews and WOM, and TSS didn't have very good WOM. As far as attracting audiences, the movie hasn't even opened yet in many places. How on earth are you judging whether WOM attracts audiences without seeing the legs?

TSS didn't have very strong WOM.

Not sure how that is even possible. It's not even at that ratio for Thu and MoM presales were at a point where they had spilled over into the weekend so all the post-Thu days should have a lower ratio. I'm guessing Deadline mixed something up.

If it does like 18.5-32-40-30 that is 6.5x. None of that requires anything particularly crazy looking at QM's internal multi/bumps and GOTG3's pace being well ahead ever since last Friday. Only thing optimistic is Sun drop but GOTG2 did have a pretty good Sun drop, not sure if there was any special factor for that Sun.

Yeah that said Saturday presales have been good and that also helps the IM. The presale run has also been more backloaded than QM which will help the Fri more (% wise) than Thu. 6.5 is doable with a good Sat and Sun.

14k would be weak for a Monday bump, I would go under 18 from that. 16-17k is what I would expect.

I think Alpha bump generally tends to be in the middle of Sacto and Denver. My goal for today was around 153.5k (+11k), hoping it gets close to that at least.

Sacto was taken around midnight I believe, Sunday really takes off at night.

Absolutely not, lol

With you all the way my friend, time to light the beam.

Man do I envy that weather.

Right, I'm not saying that matching Mario as of your final count would mean the final tickets sold would be anywhere close to Mario OD. Just that if Mario T-0 was 12401 in your equivalent markets, GOTG would seem to be on pace to match that number. Absolutely insane review bump compared to the last daily pace of like ~170.

6 days to go, I'd think it would be more likely to match Mario T-0 off of 699 sold today assuming normal bumps in the final days. Is this data like for like?

Lower than I hoped as well but the RT score is still in a range where tons of MCU films have gotten As before.

I'm very curious to see WOM from the fan screenings today. Anyway I don't think reviews will be a turnoff but probably won't boost the OW quite as much as I'd hoped. Think audience response could still be pretty strong though. Edit: IW top critic score was way stronger than I remember it being.

I think double (10k) is quite possible. Most recent big MCU film where premiere and reviews hit the same day was DS2 which was +50% on worse reviews and with a way bigger sales volume (+28k to +43k iirc). We've seen reactions bumps alone be double as well, though those were on less volume (easier to bump bigger). I think my target was 8k today for 19m, so even that +60%ish will still be ok. If it does significantly above that then my estimate will go higher. Below would be disappointing and would indicate either a broader disinterest in the film that reviews wouldn't make a dent in, or maybe that certain aspects of the reviews turned people off despite being generally positive. If it does only say 6-7k then that would lower my estimate more to where M37 has it.