StarWarsMemer

Easily, maybe $1.25B+

Probably not

Doubt that'll happen. ¥1.8B is the highest I can see it go to

This will pass Jurassic World. It'll be close to $2B

What legs can we expect from this? Is it likely that it'll beat Aladdin's total or Endgame's total?

500K admissions is likely then, or ¥900M+

I know that TRoS had an 18 days lead over Infinity War, but that's huge

Weekend Results (~70% of the Market): 748,438/1,436,072 (52.1% capacity), [258/4,368] - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Apr., 2019)703,128/1,299,917 (54.1% capacity), [249/3,625] - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (Apr., 2018)697,121/1,487,446 (46.9% capacity), [263/5,175] - Toy Story 4 (July, 2019)676,886/1,200,412 (56.4% capacity), [240/3,324] - Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (Apr., 2017)621,123/1,051,181 (59.1% capacity), [231/3,415] - Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (Dec., 2015)583,307/1,626,823 (35.9% capacity), [251/6,355] - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (July, 2018)572,042/1,043,666 (54.8% capacity), [230/2,936] - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Apr., 2016)569,497/1,392,147 (40.9% capacity), [236/5,431] - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Dec., 2015)564,449/1,416,549 (39.8% capacity), [261/4,673] - Weathering With You (July, 2019)559,049/1,406,597 (39.7% capacity), [261/4,672] - Aladdin (June, 2019)549,579/1,389,766 (39.6% capacity), [247/5,670] - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (July, 2017)547,821/1,330,179 (41.2% capacity), [254/5,015] - Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Dec., 2017)530,132/1,116,138 (47.5% capacity), [250/3,838] - Code Blue (July, 2018)526,470/1,302,175 (40.4% capacity), [245/4,570] - Beauty and the Beast (Apr., 2017)494,190/1,298,579 (38.1% capacity), [231/4,461] - One Piece Film Gold (July, 2016)477,529/1,048,231 (45.6% capacity), [261/4,552] - Avengers: Endgame (Apr., 2019)436,267/x,908,420 (48.0% capacity), [218/2,520] - Your Name. (Aug., 2016)429,097/x,903,746 (47.5% capacity), [221/3,049] - Dragon Ball Z: Resurrection F (Apr., 2015)427,077/x,913,713 (46.8% capacity), [229/2,643] - Detective Conan: Sunflowers of Inferno (Apr., 2015)413,446/1,823,898 (22.7% capacity), [258/6,439] - Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Nov., 2018)408,053/x,969,280 (42.1% capacity), [235/3,141] - Doraemon: Nobita's Treasure Island (Mar., 2018)407,419/1,271,559 (32.0% capacity), [252/4,010] - Dragon Ball Super: Broly (Dec., 2018)398,627/1,101,595 (36.2% capacity), [257/3,337] - Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Mar., 2019)395,204/1,150,630 (34.3% capacity), [254/3,559] - One Piece Film Stampede (Aug., 2019)385,119/x,998,768 (38.6% capacity), [240/2,966] - Doraemon: Nobita's Great Adventure in the Antarctic (Mar., 2017)371,995/1,021,926 (36.4% capacity), [237/3,331] - Jurassic World (Aug., 2015)370,390/1,515,394 (24.4% capacity), [243/5,111] - Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Nov., 2016)364,228/x,947,797 (38.4% capacity), [262/4,025] - The Lion King (Aug., 2019)344,292/1,394,229 (24.7% capacity), [236/4,683] - Finding Dory (July, 2016)342,594/1,196,457 (28.6% capacity), [259/4,113] - Godzilla: King of the Monsters (June, 2019)338,566/1,028,823 (32.9% capacity), [260/3,645] - Spider-Man: Far From Home (June, 2019)336,993/x,969,600 (34.8% capacity), [247/2,836] - Masquerade Hotel (Jan., 2019)327,709/1,025,446 (31.9% capacity), [233/2,903] - Doraemon: Nobita and the Birth of Japan (Mar., 2016)313,592/x,790,757 (39.7% capacity), [259/3,559] - Pokemon: Mewtwo Strikes Back - Evolution (July, 2019)311,497/x,841,015 (37.0% capacity), [252/3,307] - Avengers: Infinity War (Apr., 2018) 500K admissions on Saturday and 400K on Sunday is possible, or approximately ¥1.67B. A 12× multiplier would be over ¥20B

1.5B if it has a 7 total admissions/presales multiplier (Aladdin had 9.1 and BatB had 7.8) and a 1.26K average ticket price Currently 3.7 on eiga. It dropped from 3,8 after it has risen from 3.6. Below its predecessor's score of 3.9, and higher than TLK and TS4's 3.6 scores Could reach 20B, but I'm sticking for 17B for now

. So nearly a 5× Friday to Thursday multiplier? Makes sense since most kids go to schools on Thursday.

Do you have a job at AMC? How do you access data for over 2 million seats

B-but the pre-sales were stronger than TLK's? Kinda disappointed that this most likely wont beat the November record.

the-numbers says TS4 had a 15M OW, is that true?

The legs are what is important. A 1.33B with a 15 multiplier would be 20B. Aladdin had an 11 multiplier.

$13M and a 13x multiplier?

I highly doubt it'll have a $65M Saturday. That's like a $170M+ OW

Frozen only did half a billion internationally exlcuding South Korea, Japan, and China. Even TS4 did more than that

When did Captain Marvel's presumes start relative to its release? Has anyone tracked any $100M+ openers from 2018-2019 that had its presales start over a month prior to release other than Captain Marvel?

Chances of 150B+

Frozen at its peak was #5 worldwide. #5 worldwide right now is Infinity War with $2.05B. The Lion King (1995) was #2. Aladdin, Findng Nemo, andToy Story 3 were probably top 7. Animated movies can make a lot relative to other movies from their time period but it's just there has been a HUGE juggernaut this couple of years (minus TLK), and I don't think there will be in the next 5 years~ because Pixar and WDAS will focus on original movies. Edit: TS3 peaked at #4 behind Avatar, Titanic, and Return of the King only. Yeah, Frozen 2 will make a lot.

For $2B, it would need to do TLK numbers outside NA, China, SK, and Japan ($900M), $600M domestically, and $500M China, SK, and Japan combined. $1.75B unless it overperforms massively over TLK in Southeastern Asia and South America.

My expectations were more like 60% higher than TS4, and I dont believe this will happen based on current presales.

Damn I had high expectations for this quality-wise and box office potential.

Omg you're so informative thank you So if TRoS sells an average 75 tickets daily from now on till a week before its release in your theater and adds 6K tickets in its final week, it would be 22% higher than IW's previews, or $47M. That's pretty great

So TLK sold 7587 seats. If we assume TRoS sells 75 tickets daily on average, its previews would be only 40% higher than TLK, or $3M higher than Rogue One's previews. Do movies usually sell a lot of tickets a week prior to release to skew the average higher than 75 tickets a day?