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Starphanluke

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Everything posted by Starphanluke

  1. Starphanluke
    Feels like a lowball, but China and US OW are definitely hard to pin down right now so who knows. Is this day-and-date on HBO in UK? Or anywhere else outside of the US?
  2. Starphanluke
    Don't forget there is a Bene Gesserit prequel with Villenueve attached in development at HBO Max.
  3. Starphanluke
    My gut is saying $30-$35M for the weekend for Dune, but I'm going to be bold and predict $60M. Jk. But I do think $40M can't be taken off the table yet.
  4. Starphanluke
    Release is at 6pm EST, same time as earliest previews in NA.
  5. Starphanluke
    Halloween is an established franchise in the US, whereas Dune is not. HBO Max will affect Dune more than Peacock did to Halloween. Halloween is horror, which is less presale-heavy and more reliant on walkups than traditional blockbusters.
  6. Starphanluke
    Wouldn't surprised if Dune has worse walk-ups than those, though, considering they were pre-established franchises widely known to GA. Sure, Dune is a pre-existing property, but one with not much familiarity. Dune may have some help from the teen and young adult market thanks to Timmy and Zendaya (who have very purposefully done LOTS of marketing towards the demo in recent days), though. So I could be way wrong.
  7. Starphanluke
    I'd argue Messiah is actually a fine ending to the story, and they could make small adjustments to make it even moreso. Sure, it has setups for Children of Dune, but it also completes the first arc of the saga.
  8. Starphanluke
    Come for the ticket sales numbers, stay for the Canada talk. Anyway, I've just now learned that Ron's Gone Wrong is even a thing that exists. And I work in the industry lmao. Also, we officially have an IMAX and Dolby sellout each for Dune opening night here in town. The IMAX one in particular is impressive because it's a huge auditorium. However, still only like 3 or 4 tickets sold for each standard screening.
  9. Starphanluke
    I'm hearing a lot of interest among younger crowds, too... but hard to tell if much of that translates to Box Office sales or HBO Max viewership. It feels like the one big variable we can't predict right now which is making Dune tricky.
  10. Starphanluke
    Seems... average? Or is that a bad score? I get the various ratings there mixed up.
  11. Starphanluke
    Huh, interesting to see the jump in expectations. Did they open more 2D showings? I wonder how Chinese audiences will react to the movie. I'm not super familiar with how Hollywood movies tend to leg in China--let's say it opens in the $20-$25m range, what sort of final would we be looking at? What was BR2049's multiplier there?
  12. Starphanluke
    Yeah, there's clear potential for growth, and they already have many setpieces, costumes, etc. already made. Plus--not to get into spoilers--but you could easily make Part 2 on a smaller budget. It is strange to me that expectations for this sort of inflated in recent weeks, though I guess that was inevitable after recent BO successes and strong early sales. It still seems to me to be ready to perform as many of us suspected for months.
  13. Starphanluke
    Yeah, I would think $60m (around what SS did in August) to be the minimum for US, but we will see. $300m WW would be somewhat respectable (with clear potential for growth in US). Will come down to HBO Max streaming numbers at that point.
  14. Starphanluke
    Yeah, China's performance is a lost cause at this point lmao. Here's hoping for at least $15m.
  15. Starphanluke
    It's weird that this sentiment is so common when it seems like Dune will at least do "fine." It straight-up bombing at this point seems unlikely (except in China, which isn't all that surprising).
  16. Starphanluke
    Lmao $300m WW is not a flop for Dune when it is on HBO Max day one and still in the middle of a global pandemic. It is so much more nuanced than that. You will need to look at streaming numbers, bump in HBO Max subscriptions, etc. in order to get a good idea of true performance. But $300m WW would be a decent result. Maybe not stellar, maybe just okay, but not a flop. I still think about $350m is where it ends up.
  17. Starphanluke
    I haven't been following closely so I'm not sure of the pace, but Dune presales here in my midwest state are strong... almost exclusively on premium formats. Almost all IMAX and Dolby seats are sold out for Thursday night shows (and many for Friday as well), but standard showings are nearly untouched. I seriously think we might see a record or near-record for percentage of gross as Premium Formats in an OW. Purely gut feeling, but I'm leaning towards a $30-35m opening weekend. Would love to get to $40m, though.
  18. Starphanluke
    Overall good numbers so far (at least IMO). It's this coming weekend where things get hard to predict. There are so many variables at play. BR2049 grossed like $25m in the UK, right? I honestly have no idea if Dune will match that. What are presales looking like there? And how have HBO Max films been affected at the BO there so far? Maybe about a $10m opening in China, which isn't all that surprising, though I guess a lot of people were hoping for more. And of course, who knows what will happen in the US. My gut says $35m or somewhere around there, but I'd love for $40m.
  19. Starphanluke
    I still think at this pace TRoS crosses a billion, but not by much. Maybe Rogue One levels.
  20. Starphanluke
    Sticking with my (probably misguided) prediction that TRoS will actually play well with audiences and will be a crowdpleaser. Just saw it again with a full crowd and people seemed to love it.
  21. Starphanluke
    Having seen the film, I will say (gut reaction/predicition): It's a messy bitch of a film, but it's also fast, fun, and enormously entertaining. The characters are very likable, if hollow. I think general audiences will actually take to it really well. I could see really strong holiday week numbers.
  22. Starphanluke
    Forgive me if this is a dumb question, but work has been busy this week and I haven't been able to follow too closely: how are SW TRoS presales looking? I know SW films are notoriously presale heavy, but are things looking promising or worrying with that in mind?
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