Starphanluke

For what it's worth, Nintendo almost always lifts embargoes one day before release (which could mean they have input on this). Even for games like Breath of the Wild, one of the most critically acclaimed games ever.

Probably. But the RotB trailer performed very well. Above Guardians 3 and Indy, which released on the same day. People downplay the interest in that movie. More on topic: hell yeah to John Wick tracking big. It's going to make Shazam (and D&D) look even worse by comparison, though.

Could not disagree more. Seeing that makes me grateful Nintendo was watching over Illumination the whole time to ensure the movie didn't turn out like that.

I would advise y'all check TikTok. People who grew up on the early Bay films are causing a swell in hype for Rise of the Beasts... I imagine that's where a lot of the trailer views came from? Transformers is pretty hot on there recently. And yes, obviously a big chunk of that view count is international.

My wild prediction is that it easily out performs both Spider-Verse and Flash. I really think that movie's going to do better than most people on this board think.

I know I'm biased, but I still think y'all are pretty wildly under-estimating Transformers. That trailer generated a LOT of buzz (more than Guardians or Indy, which dropped on the *same day*), and massive trailer views. While trailer views don't always translate to BO receipts, it's at least promising. It also really took off on TikTok which, as you know, can really elevate stuff. It just hit me that the kids who grew up on the original 2007 movie are now entering an age to be a big demographic for movies like this. I think nostalgia could help it, too. If the movie can get a release in China, I absolutely think $800m is in play.

Is Thor even going to make it to $800m? Feels unlikely.

Made during COVID. That's how.

There are some absolutely WILD predictions in here. I adore Dune (my favorite book and book series of all time) and am so thrilled it found success in a time when not a lot of movies were, but not a chance in HELL it gets anywhere close to a billion. I think it can definitely improve over Part 1 and get to $600m-ish, which is a great number for an auteur, heady Sci-Fi movie. The Marvels is defininitely hard to predict without the Endgame factor plus the fact that Ms. Marvel is low-key bombing on D+. Still, under $600m seems insane to me. We'll see. And Transformers opening to only $35m and grossing under $100m domestic just isn't happening. I think it will at least top The Last Knight domestically and worldwide (assuming Paramount can secure a Chinese release). I've heard good things about it--Paramount really just needs to find it a date where it can compete. I will agree with some of you that the Hunger Games prequel will bomba. The book is DREADFUL and has none of the qualities fans of that series would want in a movie.

Honestly, I feel like Paramount should move Transformers to April. If it is even halfway decent, it could do fine there. Otherwise, it's going to get buried in June.

Goddamn, I did not expect Minions to go over $100m. Mario's gonna make bank next April. And goddamn, it buried Lightyear, huh?

Honestly, Lightyear is giving Solo vibes. A doomed-from-the-start spinoff for a character that no one really wanted. Both needed to be incredible to have a real chance, and both turned out just "fine," dooming both to box office disappointment.

This is not at all how I thought this weekend was gonna go lmao. I took dad to see Top Gun 2 last night and it was a sold-out showing. The theatre in general was packed.

I genuinely think this is worse than TRoS (and that general audiences will think so, too). At least TRoS had some fun sequences and the main cast had a nice comaraderie. This just is dull. Idk, maybe my pessimism is just because I had high hopes. I just have a bad feeling about this one.

Interesting. I suppose that is a pretty good comparison. Maybe my hunch is wrong, then.

The interesting thing about relying so heavily on walkups, though, is that there's another movie playing that still has incredible momentum and WOM. That could easily sway people into seeing Top Gun instead. Of course, we don't know yet how WOM will be for this one, but I'm not super confident in it. To use Fallen Kingdom as a baseline: was there another wildly popular/highly-regarded movie out at the time that was doing big box office? I genuinely can't remember. Anyway, theatres in my area are looking pretty empty (outside of the earliest premium screenings) so far for Dominion, but I didn't check before Fallen Kingdom, so I don't have a great point of comparison.

This movie was weirdly boring as hell. The trailers made it seem like they were *finally* "going for it," but it was just a big, fat nothingburger. Idk if audiences will be thrilled with this.

Wow, this'll probably be Paramount's biggest movie ever domestically until Transformers comes out next year.

Basically, anything that can go wrong will go wrong... unless you're Disney

Sure, my main point just being that there is substantial blockbuster content available on streaming next weekend, which will test the whole "compete with theatres" theory. Also: Star Wars does have a substantial older audience, but Mandalorian has shown there are PLENTY of young fans tuning in.

What's interesting about DS2 next weekend is that Top Gun may not be targeting that exact same audience, but Stranger Things and Obi Wan are out next weekend, and those do target similar demographics. Will be an interesting test to see if compelling streaming content can actually sway people's theatre-going habits.

On the positive side of things, I'm so genuinely thrilled about EEAAO's success

It just keeps on trucking

Seems pretty good

Oddly enough, I genuinely think Wanda/Scarlet Witch is that popular (or well on her way to being so).