Potiki

Been a while since I’ve been here, but just chiming in to say that poster is awesome. About a week ago they showed some footage for this in Korea mainly focusing on Lee Jung-jae as a Jedi and from what I have heard second hand it was pretty awesome, I expect that will probably be part of whatever trailer/teaser they show off soon.

Per the rules we are only allowed the post Disney Star Wars films (Force Awakens, Rogue One, Last Jedi, Solo and Rise of Skywalker)

Wish does not have a 30 day window like Encanto or Strange World. I think it will have a very healthy window, maybe even similar Indy 5 but that is just a guess due to the staggered international release this film has like Frozen II and the previous WDAS holiday season films. I will say personally it sucks that I have to wait until Boxing Day or later to see the film, one of the good things about the short window is it pretty much forced a day and date worldwide release for most markets.

Don't know how to share Instagram posts (doesn't link the same way as Twitter) but this from this post and BTS images from Natasha Liu Bordizzo (Sabine) is wonderful 🥹🥰 That last one with Ray 😭 source: https://www.instagram.com/p/CzcJggMSyHu/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link

Excited for this movie and box office run! Expecting it to do $700m+ and get a lot of "Pixar is back" headlines when in reality this will perform better due to it being a sequel.

They already do this with Hulu, so probably just keeping that as an option. source: https://help.hulu.com/s/article/espn-addon As I mentioned above probably just for the US market similar to how they already do with Hulu. However Star+ in Latin America does also have ESPN sports, Disney+ in other markets have some of the documentaries mainly 30 for 30s plus they did show the Toy Story themed NFL game internationally on Disney+. In India Disney+Hotstar has Star Sports coverage, In Indonesia Disney+Hotstar has WWE programming, so it is possible Disney could move more into sports internationally just depends if they can get global rights to show certain games/leagues and if it is worth bidding more to get those rights.

Sure what he did is shitty but the bigger point is don't listen to anyone outside of SAG themselves, then you won't get your hopes up based on false statements.

Your mistake was listening to the likes of Sneider and EC like they had some sort of inside knowledge. I feel like myself and others pushed back on them having any inside intel and said to wait for information from the guild (which should always be the case) It is clear this is a complicated negotiation and hopefully things stay on track and we get a deal done soon but I'm sure SAG will let us know when a deal is done and there isn't anything anyone here can do to speed things up so may as well just wait and cross your fingers if you feel that is needed.

Counter-counterpoint: This seems like they will be limiting releases and they have been happy to delay movies, seemingly for quality purposes (Avatar, Snow White, Elio, Avengers 4+5) hopefully something like that won't happen again. If anything I feel this news mean it is more likely something like TROS would hav been pushed back if released now both from hearing and seeing what has taken place in the last few months.

Was talking about how they increased production right after COVID, they already have lowered streaming release cadence so I took what he said to mean lowering volume although could see budgets come down some as well.

Cutting back on theatrical output by the sounds of things. Not shocking. Hopefully improves quality of things.

I mean he did pick an awful time to merge with WB as since then advertising (which is very very important to Discovery) has taken a big dive for Cable (and Broadcast though that doesn't impact WBD) which has made paying off as much Debt as they would have liked to difficult. Streaming for them has been poor though as although they have cut enough costs to turn profitable they have either no growth or negative growth depending at how you want to look at integrating Discovery programming into Max. Theatrical has been challenged for them (Barbie and Horror excluded) Only really positive thing they have is the gaming segment and that is a pretty small part of their business. I didn't really want to go heavily into WBD because at this point it must seem like I am constantly shitting on them, but the reality is they are not doing very well. If they didn't have so much debt they would probably have a much much better share price, but Zaslav decided to take on that debt in order to get the merger so it is his (and his boards) own fault.

Theatrical doesn't matter for Disney stock price for the most part, in fact they had a hefty loss in theatrical this quarter and it didn't really get a mention. The improvement at streaming as well as parks, licensing and merchandise continuing to grow are the big things that are driving the stock price up even with the weak advertising market for broadcast and cable.

Hulu integration with Disney+ going into Beta in December for Bundle subs. Spring 2024 for offical launch.

Nah the big beat is International subs, Domestic only went up 0.5m, Hotstar lost 2.8m, International was up 6.4m. This is the quote from the earnings release: "Disney+ added nearly 7 million core subscribers in the fourth quarter. Key streaming content in the quarter included theatrical titles Elemental, Little Mermaid and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3., original series Ahsoka and the Korean original series Moving." As I have been saying for years these services having big international hits like Moving is very important. Also other notable news is ESPN+ was profitable bringing in $33m for the quarter and streaming losses narrowed in entertainment streaming* (Disney+ and Hulu) $420m vs. $1.4B for the same quarter last year. *Entertainment and Sports are now their own reported parts of the company rather than Linear Networks and DTC.

Enjoyed this a lot, was shot well, great chemistry between the cast, really great humour. Kamala and Family were easily the MVPs! Gutted it isn’t going to do well Box Office wise, the showing I went to was only about 10% full which is crazy for an opening night showing, Free Guy at the same cinema/screen during COVID restrictions had a bigger crowd

Took longer than expected but my top 100 Finding Nemo (2003) Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest (2006) Spirited Away (2001) The Lion King (1994) Star Wars: The Last Jedi (2017) Moana (2016) Mulan (1998) The Rescue (2021) Inside Out (2015) Mary Poppins (1964) Lilo and Stitch (2002) Up (2009) Aladdin (1992) Fantasia (1940) Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl (2003) Princess Mononoke (1997) Muppets Treasure Island (1996) Who Framed Roger Rabbit (1988) Face/Off (1997) Holes (2003) Shaolin Soccer (2001) Monsters Inc. (2001) The Little Mermaid (1989) Beauty and the Beast (1991) Cool Runnings (1993) A Goofy Movie (1995) Turning Red (2022) National Treasure (2004) Chungking Express (1994) Thor: Ragnarok (2017) The Nightmare Before Christmas (1993) WALL-E (2008) The Incredibles (2004) Finding Dory (2016) Freaky Friday (2003) Scream (1996) Pulp Fiction (1994) Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs (1937) Return to Oz (1995) The Parent Trap (1998) Dead Poets Society (1989) Toy Story (1995) Muppets Christmas Carol (1992) Farewell My Concubine (1993) Hocus Pocus (1993) Queen of Katwe (2016) The Color of Friendship (2000) Wendy Wu: Homecoming Warrior (2006) Ready or Not (2019) Jojo Rabbit (2019) Free Guy (2021) Prey (2022) Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (2017) Hercules (1997) Coco (2017) One Hundred and One Dalmations (1961) The Emperor’s New Groove (2001) Zootopia (2016) Tangled (2010) Winnie the Pooh (2011) Sky High (2005) Flubber (1997) Rabbit Proof Fence (2002) Zenon: Girl of the 21st Century (1997) 10 Things I Hate About You (1999) Shanghai Noon (2000) Cadet Kelly (2002) Toy Story 3 (2010) Raya and the Last Dragon (2021) Pokemon 4Ever (2001) The Mighty Ducks (1992) The Lizzie McGuire Movie (2003) KIm Possible: A Sitch in Time (2003) The Princess Dairies (2001) Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy (2005) Aladdin (2019) The Prestige (2006) Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End (2007) Toy Story 2 (1999) Toy Story 4 (2019) The Tale of the Princess Kaguya (2013) Million Dollar Arm (2014) Con Air (1997) Rushmore (1998) Dangal (2016) Chip and Dale: Rescue Rangers (2022) The Menu (2022) Spy Kids (2001) Spy Kids 3D: Game Over (2003) Cruella (2021) Solo: A Star Wars Story (2018) Hamilton (2020) Treasure Planet (2002) The Sixth Sense (1999) Pretty Woman (1990) Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.2 (2017) The Jungle Book (2016) Pete’s Dragon (2016) The Pacifier (2005) Sin City (2005)

The difference comes from lack of funding from Comcast towards Hulu being deducted: "Disney expects it will pay NBCU approximately $8.61 billion, representing NBCU’s equity ownership percentage of the guaranteed floor value of approximately $9.17 billion (the “guaranteed purchase price”) minus the outstanding NBCU capital call contributions under the Hulu Agreement payable to Disney, currently approximately $567 million, if the full amount of such outstanding capital call contributions remains unpaid on such date." source: https://app.quotemedia.com/data/downloadFiling?webmasterId=90423&ref=317835503&type=PDF&symbol=DIS&cdn=cb9e09bc8758554b71e7078a62ca080c&companyName=The+Walt+Disney+Company&formType=8-K&formDescription=Current+report+pursuant+to+Section+13+or+15(d)&dateFiled=2023-11-01 As for the valuation difference between Disney, Comcast and the market have to wait to see how things play out but I think it will depend on how Hulu is valued (if firms are using Netflix, Disney, streaming growth, future potential, revenue growth etc.) they could spit out a bunch of different valuations which likely means a third firm will be involved and could just be luck really. Important to note that September 30th is the date that they have to work out the valuation of Hulu as an asset so any changes to stock prices, company changes etc. since then shouldn't have an impact. Personally I believe the more bearish sentiment towards streaming the last 12-18 months will benefit Disney but that has been my guess for some time. I could be wrong I haven't followed a transaction like this before, I'm not sure many have, so could really go in any direction.

Once again we should wait until SAG puts out a statement that this a done deal. It seems like they are close to a deal but anything can happen between now and a deal officially being signed that could be a set back.

It does seem like at a minimum SAG will get performance residuals similar to WGA. That has been mentioned publicly by Ted Sarandos, at the 16:10 mark of this interview (from right after talks fell apart): https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2023-10-12/netflix-co-ceo-sarandos-talks-business-content-and-hollywood-strike Also mentioned it is estimated to be 4-5x more than WGA deal due to a greater amount of participants at the 17:20 mark but it could very well have increased since than as this was over 2 weeks ago and there have been plenty of talks since then. And is mentioned in less detail as the first point in the October 11th release they had when talks broke down: "A first-of-its-kind success-based residual for High-Budget SVOD productions" Source: https://labor.amptp.org/sites/labor.amptp.org/files/October 11 Statement from AMPTP.pdf#overlay-context=node/19252

I misremembered the Encanto run slightly only one week above 2B but still as you said weeks 3-10 are all crazy averaging 1.3B or so minutes. I think an excellent run for Elemental would be averaging 800m over the next 7 weeks (would likely need 1B+ for the next 3 for that to happen) and then 500m for the next 5, I'm pretty sure that takes it through the end of the year, and would put it a little over 11B hours viewed for the year.

Encanto was doing 2B for about a month, I think what @Porthos means is if it can stay steady or have a small drop from week 2 to week 3 and then stay around that number for a while or it continues to fall and steadies out later on the run. Going to be a very big difference come the end of the year chart depending if weeks 3-7 average closer to 1B, 800m or 600m for instance, also probably the difference between it taking the number 1 spot or Moana reclaiming that spot.

Yeah getting it down to 100 was tough, a lot of stuff I had to leave off that I really like. I'm still trying to work of placements for the 100 films which is taking longer than I would have thought, I pretty much have them in groups of about 10-20 now nd just need to decide what goes higher and lower in those groupings.

Piracy will have an impact for sure. Disney+ and Netflix are in a league of their own when it comes to movie launches that is undeniable, I don't think Peacock is that far off Max or Amazon though at least for the year so far. Peacock had Super Mario that had a decent 717m minute launch ~8m views, which I believe is larger than any Max exclusive film this year. Max will have Barbie (which should do a 1B+ when It debuts) and did share Avatar 2 with Disney+, Amazon's only bigger film than that was I believe Shotgun Wedding in January. The biggest day and date Peacock film so far I imagine would be Halloween Ends (also strangely did 717m minutes viewed) for ~6.5m viewers in 3 days. FNAF funnily enough overlaps with both Mario and Halloween Ends being both a video game and a horror movie and I could see it besting the figure of both of the films, wouldn't be shocked at anywhere from 500m-1B minutes watched depending on reception, need to watch with a crowd etc.. Certainly not going to a Covid like impact of what films were doing in 2020 and 2021 going day and date but still an impact.

Apple TV has been on Android for some time https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.apple.atve.androidtv.appletv If you are talking specifically mobile, much like Chromebook's and non-Mac PC they have an option for people to watch in browser: https://support.apple.com/en-nz/guide/tvplus/apdc0cb7ad64/web Lack of reach is not a problem for Apple but outside of Ted Lasso (and possibly the MLS Messi games) they just haven't had a massive must watch movie/show unlike many of their competitors. However they seem fine spending money as marketing play for now, though they have been more discerning than the first couple of years with many more recent cancellations.