Jerri Blank-Diggler

Deadline's Saturday number up to $76 M Estimate -- Demographic skew also aging down considerably -- https://deadline.com/2024/03/box-office-dune-part-two-1235842667/ Legendary Entertainment/Warner Bros‘ Dune: Part Two is shaping up at this moment to with a weekend take around $76M, which though not at that $80M expectation the industry was putting upon it, is still wonderfully 85% over of Dune‘s $41M opening, which was dampered down by Covid and pic’s avail on HBO Max. Friday came in with $32.2M, which includes previews. The last time we saw a Friday with previews north of $30M was at the end of October with Universal/Blumhouse’s Five Nights at Freddy‘s posting $39.6M which turned into an $80M opening. Dune: Part Two‘s Friday is also just under that of Oppenheimer‘s which was $33M (and an $82.4M opening).... Right now Imax and PLFs are driving 48% of the weekend gross similar to the first Dune and an amazing share for upscale tickets. PostTrak shows 18-34 repping 55% of the audience with 24-34 year olds the largest demo at 34% with the overall over 35 crowd repping 41% of ticket buyers.

$1M CLUB: DISCOUNT TUESDAY 1. BOB MARLEY ($1.5M) 2. ORDINARY ANGELS ($1M) - ERC https://x.com/ERCboxoffice/status/1762872310825197638?s=20

Box Office Pro LONG RANGE FORECAST is out: https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-ghostbusters-frozen-empire/ Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2024’s Upcoming Calendar (as of 2/22/24) Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Distributor 2/29/2024 The Chosen: Season 4 Episodes 7 – 8 $3,000,000 – $7,000,000 $7,000,000 – $16,000,000 Angel Studios 3/1/2024 Dune: Part Two $65,000,000 – $80,000,000 +9% $164,000,000 – $213,000,000 +12% Warner Bros. Pictures 3/8/2024 Accidental Texan Roadside Attractions 3/8/2024 Cabrini Angel Studios 3/8/2024 Imaginary $15,000,000 – $20,000,000 -9% $37,000,000 – $63,000,000 -9% Lionsgate 3/8/2024 Kung Fu Panda 4 $30,000,000 – $39,000,000 $103,000,000 – $142,000,000 Universal Pictures & DreamWorks Animation 3/15/2024 1992 $5,000,000 – $9,000,000 $12,000,000 – $27,000,000 Lionsgate 3/15/2024 Arthur The King $12,000,000 – $17,000,000 $36,000,000 – $68,000,000 Lionsgate 3/22/2024 One Life Bleecker Street 3/22/2024 The American Society of Magical Negroes Focus Features 3/22/2024 Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire $35,000,000 – $49,000,000 $96,000,000 – $144,000,000 Sony / Columbia Pictures 3/22/2024 Luca Disney / Pixar 3/29/2024 Asphalt City Vertical & Roadside Attractions 3/29/2024 Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire $35,000,000 – $45,000,000 $78,000,000 – $105,000,000 Warner Bros. Pictures 3/29/2024 In the Land of Saints and Sinners

Box Office Pro's weekend forecast is also posted: https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-forecast-demon-slayer-to-the-hashira-training-drive-away-dolls-and-ordinary-angels/ Film Studio 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, February 25 3-Day % Change from Last Wknd Bob Marley: One Love Paramount Pictures $19,400,000 $78,300,000 -32% Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training Sony Pictures & Crunchyroll $9,800,000 $9,800,000 NEW Madame Web Sony & Columbia Pictures $6,300,000 $35,500,000 -59% Ordinary Angels Lionsgate & Kingdom Story Company $5,500,000 $5,500,000 NEW Migration Universal Pictures & Illumination $3,100,000 $120,600,000 -19% Argylle Universal Pictures $3,000,000 $41,700,000 -38% Wonka Warner Bros. Pictures $2,700,000 $214,700,000 -23% Drive-Away Dolls Focus Features $2,300,000 $2,300,000 NEW The Beekeeper MGM $2,000,000 $63,100,000 -38% The Chosen: Season 4 Episodes 4 – 6 Fathom Events $1,600,000 $7,400,000 -56%

The Cole Sprouse fans finally arrived en masse. Maybe it was his birthday? JK. The Numbers has now fixed that number. Lisa F earned $278,625 rather than $2.7796 M on Tuesday. Just a small bad. Btw, can only administrators start threads like a weekday BO thread? It would be nice to have one, but I'm still pretty new here so I don't want to be presumptuous.

Yes, granted. Each theater can however only do half as many showings per day. The long runtime also means that it would be daunting for Chosen's demographic to hit any showing that begins after 8 pm (particularly with kids in the mix). I had been fairly bullish on this Chosen Fathom event early on, and I had seen quite a lot of brisk sales in screenings near me. As theaters locked weekend schedules, though, I also noticed how a good number of theaters are limiting showings to 2 times per day. (Not all, of course.) I took a peek on a Chosen subreddit, and quite a number of people were commenting on how daunting the prospect of sitting through almost 3.5 hours of it at once was. I just checked the 5 closest theaters to me for Chosen weekend showtimes. #1 (a CMX) is not showing Chosen at all. #2 (a Regal) is showing it 2 times per day on each of Friday, Saturday and Sunday. #3 (an AMC) is also showing it 2 times per day on each of Friday, Saturday and Sunday. #4 (a Studio Movie Grill) is showing it 4 times each on Friday and Saturday then 3 times on Sunday. #5 (another Regal) showing it 2 times per day on each of Friday, Saturday and Sunday. I then checked the largest area 24 plex (an AMC) that often has the most showings and generally gets good attendance across the board for all different types of films. For today, Chosen has 4 showings there: the 3 pm showing that has sold 32 out of 52 seats; 4 pm showing that has sold 31 out of 100+ (large auditorium); 7:30 pm showing that has sold 35 out of 52 seats; and 8:30 pm showing that has zero pre-sales in the large auditorium. (For context about how many auditoriums get allocated to movies and how many tickets this cinema tends to pre sell, Argylle has 9 screenings there today, and tonight's 6:30 pm Dolby showing of Argylle there has already sold 90 seats.) Tomorrow Chosen has 5 Saturday showings there. 12 pm has 4 tickets sold; 3 pm has sold 29 out of 52; 4:30 pm has sold 16 in a large 100+ seat auditorium; 7:30 pm has sold 24 out of 52; and 9 pm has 0 tickets sold. (Again, for context, Argylle has 12 Saturday screenings, and Argylle has sold 41 seats for the Saturday 6:30 pm Dolby showing at this theater.) On Sunday, Chosen is down to 4 showings at this theater: 11:30 am (church-time) - 5 sold; 3 pm - 37 sold of 52; 4 pm - 8 sold out of 101; 7:30 pm - 14 sold out of 52. (For comparison, Argylle has 13 Sunday showings. The 6:30 pm Dolby of Argylle has sold 6 tickets.) Of course, Chosen 4 Eps 1-3 is running for 2 full weeks, so Chosen fans do have a bit of time to go catch this in an ideal window (early evening weekdays, and mid-afternoon to early evening on weekends, it seems) before Eps 4-6 replaces it in theaters.

"Strong" must be Giteshese for "meh," because one year ago Chosen's Season 3 Finale premiered with $1.667 M on Thursday, Feb. 2, 2023 in 1731 theaters. S4 Eps 1-3's Thursday is down 15% from last year's Thursday number at more theaters (2236, according to Deadline).

Good prediction on The Chosen, @abracadabra1998 ("Let's go with $1.5 Million, +/- 0.25.") Its Thursday number is $1.4 M according to Deadline. Deadline seems to be treating this as a preview number, though Fathom had stated Thursday as opening day. With The Chosen S 3 Finale last February that also opened on Thursday, Thursday earnings did not get included in weekend totals. S 3 Finale did $1.7 M previews and $3.6 M FSS weekend in 1731 theaters. Deadline says the new S 4 eps 1-3 opened yesterday in 2236 theaters. That almost 3.5 hour run-time has to be making for a lot fewer overall showtimes per theater (and making it harder for Chosen's demographic to hit any showing that starts later than 8 pm). https://deadline.com/2024/02/box-office-argylle-1235812281/ Apple Original Films’ ‘Argylle’ Sees $1.7M In Thursday Previews; ‘The Chosen’ $1.4M – Box Office

Box Office: ‘Argylle’ Makes $1.7 Million in Previews (Variety) https://variety.com/2024/film/box-office/box-office-argylle-previews-1235892130/

I'm curious if you're going to be able to post a T-0 or an Opening Day for this one. Previous Chosen episodes have been doing well, but in the latest Box Office Pro forecast, this is now predicted to just earn $3.2 Million for the entire weekend. As of last Friday, BOP had Chosen's FSS at $7-11 M, but suddenly the FSS estimate range is down to $2.5-$5.5 M with that pinpoint at $3.2 M, which would put it down all the way at #7 for the weekend. I'm pretty surprised at this big drop for such a previously dependable performer. Shawn mentioned the longer runtime of this Chosen event in comparison to previous ones, which is a fair point. I hadn't realized that this Chosen event stretches to almost a KOTFM length at just under 3.5 hours (with short intermissions between episodes). That said, there is a devoted, "faithful" fanbase here, and it looks like it will be months before any of these Season 4 episodes will be made available to stream, so this fanbase either has to go to the theater or wait several months. I've looked at theaters around me, and many are filling up throughout the weekend. Are you seeing positive or negative trends in your area?

BOP's Long Range Forecast posted last night: Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2024’s Upcoming Calendar (as of 1/25/24) Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Low/High Range Distributor 2/1/2024 The Chosen: Season 4 Episodes 1 – 3 $7,000,000 – $11,000,000 $11,000,000 – $18,000,000 Fathom Events 2/2/2024 Argylle $20,000,000 – $30,000,000 $65,000,000 – $95,000,000 Universal Pictures / Apple Original Films 2/2/2024 Scrambled $2,000,000 – $5,000,000 $4,500,000 – $14,000,000 Lionsgate ... 2/9/2024 Lisa Frankenstein $9,000,000 – $14,000,000 $23,000,000 – $46,000,000 Focus Features ... 2/14/2024 Bob Marley: One Love $13,000,000 – $18,000,000 $41,000,000 – $77,000,000 Paramount Pictures 2/14/2024 Madame Web $25,000,000 – $35,000,000 $56,000,000 – $101,000,000 Sony / Columbia Pictures 2/15/2024 The Chosen: Season 4 Episodes 4 – 6 $6,000,000 – $10,000,000 $9,000,000 – $16,000,000 Fathom Events Shawn's article and complete chart at https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-demon-slayer-kimetsu-no-yaiba-to-the-hashira-training-and-ordinary-angels/

According to The Numbers last night: "We have yet to receive a theater count for [Miller's Girl] but will include it when we get one. Based on our survey of theaters, it looks as though it will debut in about 500 locations."

POOR THINGS is expanding into 2300 THEATERS this weekend per Box Office Report. Disney / Searchlight's Poor Things grossed $323K on Wednesday (from 1,410 locations), which was a 61% increase from the previous Wednesday. Total domestic gross stands at $21.42M. This weekend's location count for the film is 2,300 locations. https://x.com/BORReport/status/1750585109345112451?s=20

Box Office Pro's Weekend Box Office Forecast: MEAN GIRLS Likely to Threepeat Amid Oscar Nominee Expansions and No Major Openers... 1 Mean Girls $7.2 M (-38%) 2 Beekeeper $6.1 M (-29%) 3 Wonka $5.5 M (-18%) 4 Migration $4.7 M (-14)% 5 Anyone But You $4.3 M (-20%) Full article with chart at: https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-forecast-mean-girls-likely-to-threepeat-amid-oscar-nominee-expansions-and-no-major-openers/

"THE BEEKEEPER ($800k) is the #1 film in the nation, overtaking MEAN GIRLS ($700k) on Monday." - ERC https://x.com/ERCboxoffice/status/1749828573312270801?s=20

Deadline Weekend Box Office (as of Sat) -- 1 Mean Girls $11 M (-62%); 2 Beekeeper $8.3 M (-50%); 3 Wonka $6.75 (-20%); 4 Anyone But You $5.4 M (-24%); 5 Migration $5.3 M (-15%); 6 Aquaman $3.75 M (-29%); 7 ISS $3.3 M Per Deadline: ISS -- *PostTrack a low 49% positive and 27% definite recommend* to go with C- Cinemascore Total Weekend Box Office $68M; "-8% from same frame" in 2022 https://deadline.com/2024/01/box-office-mean-girls-weak-winter-weekend-1235799017/

Most terrible results for Mean Girls. Friday to Friday (with previews counted) Mean Girls -71.8% Beekeeper -64% True Friday to Friday (with previews removed) Mean Girls -61% Beekeeper -44%* (*Not sure if Beekeeper's previous Saturday EA screenings were included in first Friday numbers separate from Thursday preview numbers. If so then its true Friday to Friday drop would be a bit less.) Taking Variety's overall weekend prediction numbers: -- If Mean Girls earns $11 M this weekend, that will be a 62% drop from last weekend. -- If Beekeeper earns $8.4 M this weekend, then that will be a 49.3% drop. (Estimates from https://variety.com/2024/film/box-office/iss-opening-day-beekeeper-mean-girls-1235879982/ )

ISS got a C- Cinemascore, which bodes a quick crash landing.... For comparison, Moonfall got a C+.

Very interesting. Something strange happened locally with "Origin" today. It has disappeared from the 1 local theater that had been listing showtimes for it this weekend, and now Fandango says "This movie starts playing Thurs., Jan 25." Indeed, 2 local theaters have showtimes posted starting at 5 pm next Thursday, 1/25 (previews, clearly). So maybe the Origin release is becoming more of a platform roll-out after all. Your AMC theaters in NY, SF and LA rolling it out first this weekend certainly sounds like the beginnings of one. And with some word now spreading about Angelina Jolie and other in Hollywood trying to create a To Leslie-style FYC campaign for it to get surprise Oscar nomination(s), perhaps Neon has switched up its 11th hour release strategy.

Does anyone have the scoop on what is happening with the release of Ava DuVernay's "Origin"? I had read that it would be getting a wide release this coming weekend. However, as theaters are locking in their weekend fare, I'm only seeing "Origin" opening in certain big-city theaters. Has its release switched to limited or to some platform pattern? I live in an urban area of several million people, and "Origin" is opening in a grand total of 1 area theater - about 30 miles away. (Compare that to *ISS,* which is opening in 22 area theaters.) Looking around the country, I can see that "Origin" is doing Wednesday EA shows, Thursday previews and Friday opening in a limited number of big-city theaters, but it certainly does not seem like any kind of traditional "wide" release. Did I miss the memo about changes in its release?

Deadline -- Sunday studio reported estimates: 1.) Mean Girls (Par) 3,791 theaters, Fri $11.65M, Sat $9.65M Sun $6.8M Mon $4M 3-day $28M, 4-day $32M/Wk 1 2.) The Beekeeper (AMZ MGM) 3,303 theaters, Fri $6.7M, Sat $5.7M Sun $4.3M Mon $2.3M 3-day $16.8M, 4-day $19.2M/Wk 1 3.) Wonka (WB) 3,346 (-471) theaters, Fri $1.8M (-58%) Sat $3.65M Sun $2.9M Mon $2.5M 3-day $8.38M (-40%), 4-day $10.88M Total $178.69M/Wk 5 4.) Migration (Ill/Uni) 3,224 (-488) theaters, Fri $1.15M (-62%) Sat $2.8M Sun $2.2M Mon $2.1M 3-day $6.19M (-38%), 4-day $8.3M Total $87.8M/ Wk 4 5.) Anyone But You (Sony) 2,935 (-120) Fri $2.1M (-35%) Sat $2.75M Sun $2.09M Mon $1.3M 3-day $6.94M (-29%), 4 day $8.255M Total $56.4M/Wk 4 6.) Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (WB) 2,741 (-812) theaters, Fri $1.16M (-63%) Sat $2.28M Sun $1.8M Mon $1.37M 3-day $5.265M (-50%), 4-day $6.64M /Total $109.6M/Wk 4 7.) Night Swim (Uni) 3,257 (+7) theaters, Fri $1.17M (-78%) Sat $1.98M Sun $1.5M Mon $840K 3-day $4.66M (-60%), 4-day $5.5M, Total $20M/Wk 7 8.) Boys in the Boat (AMZ MGM) 2,007 (-680) theaters, Fri $974K (-45%) Sat $1.45M Sun $1.09M 3-day $3.52M (-37%), 4-day $4.18M Total $40M, Wk 3 9.) The Book of Clarence (Leg/Tri-Star) Fri $1M Sat $890K Sun $685K Mon $425K 3-day $2.57M 4-day $3M/Wk 1 9) Iron Claw (A24) 1,591 (-801) theaters, Fri $691K Sat $950K Sun $760K Mon $608K 3-day $2.4M (-47%) 4-day $3M Total $29.2M /Wk 4 11.) Guntur Kaaram (Parth) 800 theaters, Fri $2M, Sat $391K Sun $317K Mon $170K 3-day $2.7M, 4-day $2.87M/Wk 1 Full article at: https://deadline.com/2024/01/box-office-mean-girls-mlk-2024-1235726596/

B+ Cinemascores worked for both Hunger Games: BoSS and Anyone But You this season, so Beekeeper may just sprout some legs (wings?). We became Tim Meadows walk-ups tonight for a 6:00 pm showing of Mean Girls. I don't mind musicals, liked Wonka, liked Anyone But You, really like the original Mean Girls, and.... I think a "B" Cinemascore for MG '24 is generous. It is just not good. It is subpar at seamlessly integrating the songs into the action. Most of them don't drive the narrative forward, they slow it down abruptly. To be fair, a couple of songs work and feel as organic as big dance numbers about Apex Predators can be, but they are in the minority. The music burns up so much of the runtime that everything else feels like a YouTube highlights version of the original movie. Our audience started to audibly groan when new songs started, and someone yelled "Thank You!" to the biggest audience laughter of the showing when one character acted like they were about to break out into song but then didn't. The only Fetch-Grool presence in the whole thing is Renee Rapp, who is dynamite.

‘Mean Girls’ Makes $3.3M in Previews, ‘Beekeeper’ Buzzes to $2.4M https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/mean-girls-box-office-previews-beekeeper-1235786479/ Edit: ERC lists the "Mean Girls' preview number as $3.25 M, to get granular.

With those films, I was thinking more around the margins, particularly in cases where there are fairly close races between certain films at the Box Office, etc. Such differences may help finally sink Aquaman 2 below Migration, help ensure that Wonka comes in well below Beekeeper this weekend, etc. (I'm certainly not saying those will be the only causes, but contributing factors.)

Last weekend's #3 Aquaman 2 losing a whopping 812 theaters (23% of its previous total theaters), last weekend #4 Migration losing about 500 (498) and Boys in the Boat losing -680 are all large cuts. Hell, even last weekend's #1 Wonka is losing 417 theaters. Those are all bigger drops than most industry forecasters seemed to have been baking into their models.