Jerri Blank-Diggler

I'm trying to understand this film's potential US/NA Box Office and its premiere... do we know in how many US theaters it is premiering? I looked around in a couple of US markets, and Guntur Kaaram seems to be in fewer theaters than the recent "Salaar: Part 1," for example. Salaar was in 802 NA theaters. Also the above tweet reads "USA Premieres Gross" (not just *Previews*). I found a couple of online articles from today saying that Guntur has broken the $1 Million mark for all of its US-presales, so could this $1.036 M number be referring to total North America pre-sales? An India Times article today reads: "...reports hint at even more astounding numbers, estimating estimating that by the end of its premiere, revenue may reach $1.5 million." (India Times; link below) For comparison, "on its initial day in North America, "Salaar" generated an impressive $3.7 million." (GreatAndhra link below) Salaar ended up being pretty front-loaded, earning a total $5.6 million over that 3-day Fri-Sun Dec 22-24 weekend (including its Thursday previews). Links: ComingSoon.net: https://www.comingsoon.net/indian/news/1481291-guntur-kaaram-advance-booking-collection-us-mahesh-babu-movie-crosses-1m-mark ("trade pundits have revealed that the pre-sales of the movie have surpassed the $1 million milestone in the US. This is a testament to the massive popularity of the Mahesh Babu-starrer. As a result, these numbers are expected to go as high as $1.5 million by the end of the premieres.") India Times: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/entertainment/telugu/movies/news/mahesh-babus-guntur-kaaram-pre-sales-soar-past-1-million-ahead-of-usa-premiere/articleshow/106717295.cms?from=mdr Great Andhra piece about Salaar Part 1: https://www.greatandhra.com/movies/news/us-bo-salaar-becomes-third-big-hit-for-prabhas-134526#:~:text=On its initial day in,"Salaar" amounts to %243%2C759%2C055.

Deadline's Wednesday evening weekend forecast does not seriously lowball against other prevailing forecasts for once: "Mean Girls is excellent with women, and poised to clear $30 million over the four-day MLK weekend at 3,782 theaters. Meanwhile, Amazon MGM Studios’ R-rated Jason Statham action title The Beekeeper, solid with men and multicultural audiences, is looking at $16M Friday-Monday... Beekeeper is in 3,303 locations including Imax, Screen X, 4DX and some Dolby…The Book of Clarence, which isn’t suppose to do well with a low-single-digit take over four days at 2,100 theaters....” Mean Girls' and Beekeeper's location counts are also both higher than has previously been stated elsewhere... Earlier this week, Beekeeper's estimated location count (per Box Office Report) was "2750+." That "+" has swollen by more than 550 additional locations. Mean Girls had previously been stated to be opening in "an estimated 3600 locations" tomorrow. Its new 3782 locations number could put it at the top of the location counts this weekend. Last weekend Wonka was in 3817 locations (after falling by 234 locations from the prior weekend), so it could only lose 35 theaters this weekend without ceding the location count crown to Mean Girls. https://deadline.com/2024/01/box-office-mean-girl-preview-1235712531/ Edit: One other tracking tidbit included by Deadline is the number of national locations for Mean Girls' Wednesday EA screenings: 450, seemingly all PLF & Dolby theaters. Demonstrates how limited capacity was, as cited by trackers on here. "Tonight, Paramount is holding early previews of Mean Girls at 450 Dolby and PLF theaters, aka an “On Wednesdays We Wear Pink Early Access Screening” at 7 p.m. That money will be rolled into Thursday previews, which start at 4 p.m." No mention of Beekeeper's Saturday EA screenings in terms of number of locations or to which day BK's EA earnings will be applied.

BOX OFFICE PRO: 4-Day MLK Weekend Box Office Forecast: #1 MEAN GIRLS ($30.9 M 3-day/$34.6 M 4-day), 2/3 WONKA/THE BEEKEEPER (Beekeeper #2 over 3-day, Wonka #2 over 4-day), #4 Anyone But You, #5 Migration; Book of Clarence outside Top 5 https://www.boxofficepro.com/4-day-mlk-weekend-box-office-forecast-the-beekeeper-the-book-of-clarence-and-mean-girls/ Film Studio 3-Day Weekend Forecast Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) 3-Day % Change from Last Wknd 4-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Monday, January 15 Mean Girls (2023) Paramount Pictures $30,900,000 ~3,700 NEW $34,600,000 $34,600,000 Wonka Warner Bros. Pictures $10,100,000 ~3,600 -28% $12,600,000 $180,700,000 The Beekeeper MGM $10,700,000 ~3,000 NEW $12,200,000 $12,200,000 Anyone But You Sony & Columbia Pictures $8,000,000 ~3,100 -18% $10,300,000 $58,500,000 Migration Universal Pictures & Illumination $7,700,000 ~3,400 -23% $10,100,000 $90,300,000

Box Office Report: Weekend Box Office Predictions for January 5 - January 7, 2024 (Link to BOR analysis below.) Predictions for this weekend's top 10 films at the domestic box office. Rank Film (Distributor) Weekend Gross Total Gross % Change Week # 1 Wonka (Warner Bros.) $15.7 M $166.0 M -30% 4 2 Night Swim (Universal) $14.5 M $14.5 M N/A 1 3 Migration (Universal) $12.0 M $79.7 M -29% 3 4 Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (Warner Bros.) $11.7 M $101.1 M -36% 3 6 Anyone But You (Sony / Columbia) $7.9 M $42.1 M -10% 3 6 The Color Purple (Warner Bros.) $5.9 M $55.7 M -50% 2 7 The Boys in the Boat (Amazon MGM Studios) $5.8 M $33.6 M -31% 2 8 The Iron Claw (A24) $3.4 M $22.8 M -33% 3 9 Ferrari (NEON) $2.6 M $16.0 M -34% 2 10 The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes (Lionsgate) $2.1 M $164.1 M -27% 8 http://www.boxofficereport.com/predictions/predictions20240104.htm

Box Office Report: Holiday Weekend Predictions -- 4-Day: 1. Aquaman ($33M) 2. Wonka (29.5M) 3. Migration ($19 M) 4. The Color Purple ($18.5 M) 5. Anyone But You ($8.3 M) 6. Salaar: Part 1 - Ceasefire ($8.0 M) 7. The Iron Claw $5.6 M http://www.boxofficereport.com/predictions/predictions20231221.html In the description, they list the FSS 3-day predictions as well: 1. Aquaman -- $25.0 M 3-day 2. Wonka $20.0 M 3-day 3. Migration $14.0 M 3-day 4. Salaar: Part 1 - Ceasefire - $6.2 M 3-day (slightly ahead of Anyone But You; citing over $2 M in presales as of early Thurs.) 5. Anyone But You - $6.0 M 3-day (slightly behind here, different from the 4-day ranking, presumably getting a Christmas bounce) 6. The Iron Claw - $4.2 M 3-day

Thanks for quickly posting these numbers! I see that Dunki is listed as "Day 1" for Thursday, which does suggest that its Thursday numbers may not be rolling into Friday. That Salaar preview number at $1.95 M could easily put it at #2 for Thursday previews behind Aquaman. Rolling ~$2 M into its weekend gross does make Salaar look like a contender. I'm feeling like Salaar could be a sleeper #4 this weekend. Even though Migration is looking barely able to get off the ground, I have to assume that its sheer proliferation will push it up somewhere close to Puss in Boots OW numbers for #3 position. If Dunki is going solely on the strength of its FSS numbers, then I wonder where in that #5-#8 Weekend Top movies it might land. (I'm also assuming that Hunger Games could still be in the mix somewhere between #5 and #8.)

Oops, hit send on that before I had finished added data: [With all of this post, I'm really talking about the FSS weekend before the market gets even more jam-packed on Christmas Day] *More on Salaar *It is getting some RPX, Dolby and Laser showings *Some big mainstream theaters like the Regal Medlock Crossing have it doing around 11 showings per day * Dunki-- Thursday previews in 21 area theaters (10 fewer than Salaar); on Friday, it adds another for 22 area theaters * The Thursday evening shows seem even more full on average than for Salaar, at least partially because of limited capacity *Over the weekend, its daily showtimes increase to not be far behind those of Salaar, and I saw at least a couple of RPX showings *Somewhere I read that Dunki may not be applying its Thursday earnings to its weekend take *One note -- at the theaters where both Dunki and Salaar sold well in primetime for Thurs-Friday, they also seem to be selling a ton of seats for their late night Thursday & Friday showings between 9:30 and 10:30 pm, so there is obviously demand here For comparison, the local numbers of theaters for the other 4 wide openers are: * Aquaman: opening at 57 area theaters within 50 miles * Lots of showings throughout the weekend * I found a few theaters that had robust Thursday preview sales, but most were pretty sparse * Migration: also opening in 57 area theaters within 50 miles *Lots of showings, but even more sparse Thursday previews; lots of theaters had 0-2 sales for Thursday * Anyone But You: opening in 54 area theaters within 50 miles *I checked about 15 theaters known to have robust sales, and I mostly found it opening in fairly small theaters and pre-selling on average 6-20 tickets for primetime 7-8 pm Thursday shows; some were totally empty *This seems to be getting 1 theater at most cinemas, probably averaging about 4-5 showings per day in the area over the weekend * Iron Claw: also opening in 54 area theaters within 50 miles *I also checked about 15 theaters, and a few had 40+ tickets presold for Thursday primetime 7-8 pm showings, while others had very few sold, so this one could earn the majority of its Box Office from a smaller portion of its overall theaters *Like Anyone, also seems to be getting 1 theater at most cinemas and around 4-5 showings per day So the question is: could we be looking at 2 Bollywood films (or at least 1) breaking into the weekend (FSS) top 5? On the heels of back-to-back Japanese hits, could there be a lesser simultaneous Bollywood storming of the NA Box Office prior to Christmas Day? I'd love to hear thoughts.

Speaking of Dunki, has anyone been tracking the openings of the 2 Bollywood films both set to open this weekend? Both Salaar Part 1: Ceasefire and Dunki seem to be getting a lot of traction. Of course they are not going to overtake the top 3 this weekend, but could they overtake the other presumed new openers, *Anyone But You* and/or *The Iron Claw*? Exhibitor Relations Co. posted that Salaar is opening in 750+ theaters this weekend while Dunki is opening in 686 theaters. Those may seem like fairly small numbers, but their presales look huge. For reference, *Jawan* opened a few months ago in about 800 theaters and did $6.1 million OW (FSS). Given current predictions for *Anyone But You* and *Iron Claw,* even a $5+ million 3-day for either *Salaar* or *Dunki* could put them in a very competitive position for #4 and/or #5. Another interesting point here is that since a large portion of the audience for these movies may not be celebrating Christmas, the assumed Christmas Eve depressive effect may be minimized for *Salaar* and *Dunki.* I happen to be traveling through Atlanta at the moment. I checked theaters here, and for tonight and Friday night, and here's what I found: *Salaar Part 1 -- * opening in 31 area theaters on Thursday; there are many shows, some in very large auditoriums, that are 2/3 or more full * some theaters are offering different showings in Telugu, Hindi and Tamil, all with English subtitles; the Telugu language shows seem to be selling the most [Edit: continues with more on Dunki etc. in follow-up post below b/c I accidentally hit post button at this point]

Now that we have daily first week box office numbers through Wednesday for The Boy & The Heron, I thought it would be interesting to see how its daily performance has compared to the first week daily performance of Godzilla Minus One. I pulled together the following chart, including a "Winner" row at the bottom that lists the overall daily winner both in (1) overall daily earnings and (2) percentage change from the previous day. Each daily winner is highlighted in green and also listed in the bottom row. The Boy & The Heron took most wins at first, but over time, the daily edge shifted to Godzilla-1. Going into the mid-week stretch, their overall daily numbers remain quite close. The Boy & the Heron does seem to face some particularly strong headwinds going into its second weekend as mentioned in the final forward-looking "2nd Friday Changes" column. FIRST WEEK US/CAN DOMESTIC DAILY PERFORMANCE COMPARISON: GODZILLA MINUS ONE versus BOY & THE HERON FIRST WEEK Previews/EA Earnings Friday ( "True Friday" #s) Saturday Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday 2nd Friday Changes Godzilla Minus 1 (2308 theaters; Primary “Also New” Competition: Renaissance, taking most premium formats) $2,100,000 $2,626,373 (true Friday; +25.1% previews/EA) $3,735,270 (+42.22% of true Friday) $2,958,332 (-21% YD) $1,225,396 (-59% YD) $1,714,786 (+40% YD) $1,361,343 (-21% YD) $1,279,834 (-6%); Changes-- maybe lost some premium theaters to B&H previews? Added 232 theaters for second weekend (from 2308 to 2540) The Boy & the Heron (2205 theaters; Primary “Also New” Competition: N/A for 1st 6 days) $2,390,000 $3,212,603 (true Friday; +34.42% previews/EA) $4,042,880 (+25.64% of true Friday) $3,366,239 (-17% YD) $1,195,371 (-64% YD) $1,463,447 (+22% YD) $1,308,260 M estimate (-10.6% YD) ?; Changes – losing many premium screens to Wonka Maintaining total theaters; losing most premium format screens to new competitor Wonka Daily Winners in Earnings & in Percentage Daily Change Boy & Heron in overall earnings Boy & Heron in daily earnings & percent increase Boy & Heron in daily earnings; Godzilla in percent increase Boy & Heron in daily earnings; Godzilla in lower percent decrease Godzilla in daily earnings & lower percent decrease Godzilla in daily earnings & higher percent increase Godzilla in daily earnings; Boy & Heron in lower percent decrease ? It's also interesting to look at how each film's 1st Wednesday compares to its 1st Monday (since Tuesdays are inflated, etc.) Godzilla: 1st Wed v. 1st Mon. = +11.1% growth Boy & Heron 1st Wed. v 1st Mon. = +9.44% growth Godzilla has the slight edge growth there. This is a first draft, but hopefully it does not read too clunky.

So *Wish* may come in ahead of *Renaissance*.... definitely calls for the "Astonishing" reaction.

Box Office Report Weekend Predictions: 1. Boy & Heron; 2. Hunger Games; 3. Godzilla 4. Renaissance; 5. Trolls 3 BOX OFFICE REPORT WEEKEND PREDICTIONS The Boy & the Heron -- $11.0 M (NEW) Hunger Games: Boss -- $10.0 M (-29%) Godzilla Minus One -- $8.3 M (-27%) Renaissance...Beyonce -- $6.5 M (-70%) Trolls 3 -- $6.3 M (-20%) Link to Box Office Report Weekend Predictions

Thanks for all you do for the box office community, @Shawn! It's awesome how collaborative and team-spirted you are with the folks on BOT. Btw, on your updated Box Office Pro chart, you currently still have GMO listed in 2400 theaters for the weekend. Isn't its new theater count ~2540 based on the widely circulated posts from Toho @Godzilla_Toho and Deadline (which specified 2540) last evening? Link to Godzilla Toho Tweet

According to a Deadline article published Wednesday evening: "Distributor Toho International said it’s been adding screens this week due to marketplace demand. It will be playing the film by Takashi Yamazaki in 2,540 locations (up from 2,308)." Link to Deadline Article "Godzilla Minus One Highest Grossing Live Action Japanese Film in North America"

I just saw the newly posted Box Office Pro Weekend Forecast. Most of it makes sense (Boy & the Heron pinpoint of $10.2 M, etc.), but I cannot get my head around the prediction for Godzilla Minus One to drop 72% and only earn $3.2 million this coming weekend -- below Trolls, Wish and Napoleon. @Shawn, I'd love to hear more about how your team came up with that number. Box Office Pro Weekend Forecast Link Film Studio 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, December 10 Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) 3-Day % Change from Last Wknd The Boy and the Heron GKIDS $10,200,000 $10,200,000 ~2,100 NEW The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes Lionsgate $9,500,000 $135,600,000 ~3,500 -33% Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé AMC Theatres Distribution $6,300,000 $29,300,000 ~2,539 -71% Trolls Band Together Universal Pictures $6,000,000 $82,900,000 ~3,500 -23% Wish Disney $5,300,000 $49,300,000 ~3,400 -31% Napoleon Sony Pictures & Apple $4,500,000 $53,300,000 ~3,300 -38% Godzilla Minus One Toho International $3,200,000 $18,800,000 ~2,400 -72% The Shift Angel Studios $1,800,000 $8,200,000 ~2,450 -58% Silent Night Lionsgate $1,500,000 $5,500,000 ~1,870 -50% Thanksgiving Sony Pictures & TriStar $1,500,000 $30,800,000 ~2,000 -43%

NEW OPENER PREVIEW RESULTS (per Deadline): - Renaissance $5 M - Godzilla $2.1 M (EA + Thurs) - Silent Night $250k From Deadline: AMC Entertainment’s second concert film theatrical release, Renaissance: A Film by Beyonce, fired up last night with $5M previews from showtimes that began at 7PM...Given Beyonce’s pull on older audiences, particularly woman (those over 25 showed up at 53%), an opening in the vicinity of $15M-$20M is expected, and indeed, last night’s ticket sales are considered to be frontloaded... Toho International’s first self-distributed U.S. theatrical release, Godzilla Minus One (for those keeping tabs, Crunchy Roll previously released Toho movies), earned $2.1M Wednesday and Thursday previews. The Japanese reboot is expected to make in the high single digits-$10M+ for the weekend. Lionsgate has John Woo’s first U.S. theatrical release in 20 years, Silent Night, which did $250K in previews last night. The movie is expected to file in the low single digits this weekend. Link to the Deadline post

Disney's Wish grossed $591K on Wednesday (from 3,900 locations). domestic gross stands at $33.97M. Universal / DreamWorks Animation's Trolls Band Together grossed $529K on Wednesday (from 3,893 locations). Total domestic gross stands at $66.72M. Sony and Apple's Napoleon grossed an estimated $1.30M on Wednesday (from 3,500 locations). Estimated total domestic gross stands at $37.51M. (All from Box Office Report.)

Saw this last night. Terrific film; it really works as a satisfying action thriller. Some of the best action set pieces all year. In an unexpected way, this end of & immediate post-WW2 version of Godzilla feels like a fitting nuclear-tinged,, zeitgeisty book-end to July's Oppenheimer. Talk about the Destroyer of Worlds personified (monsterified?). Our large IMAX theater that was about 1/2 full -- the good seats all mostly taken. There was widespread audience clapping at the end (only the third time I've heard that all year -- after Barbie and GotG3 as well).

https://deadline.com/2023/11/hunger-games-ballad-of-songbirds-and-snakes-box-office-100m-1235642112/ Deadline just included some spicy zingers about Renaissance's "very low" pre-sales and BO outlook for the upcoming weekend in the linked article ostensibly about Hunger Games BoSS crossing the $100 M mark domestically: "While industry sources expect Songbirds & Snakes to decline -55% in its third weekend for a 3-day gross around $13M, don’t count the movie’s momentum out even though AMC’s Renaissance: A Film by Beyonce is arriving in theaters. The latter pic’s presales are very low, in the vicinity of West Side Story and In the Heights, so it wouldn’t be shocking if Songbirds & Snakes wins No. 1 for a third time in a row. Don’t put all your chips on Beyonce. Expectations for the concert-documentary movie have dropped down to $15M on the low-end, and it could be lower."

I have about 25 theaters I routinely check around the country, and this morning I found that TET had tickets for sale on Friday, November 10 at 9 of those theaters. Given that most theaters are only pre-loading The Marvels, The Holdovers, It's a Wonderful Knife and Journey to Bethlehem this far out, it seemed like a vote of confidence in TET that 9 of them also have showings for sell a week out. I checked the 7-8 pm hour shows at some of them and was surprised to see that they already had some sold seats. For the record, the theaters with TET seats already loaded for 11/10 that I found earlier were: AMC Metreon (SF), AMC Mercado 20 (San Jose, CA), AMC Eastridge (San Jose, CA),, AMC Burbank 16 (Los Angeles), AMC Kips Bay 15 (NYC), Cinemark Pflugerville 20 (TX), Cinemark Fayette Mall & XD (Lexington, KY), AMC Riverview 14 (Tampa) and AMC Veterans 24 (Tampa).

Looking at the Tampa Bay Area (FL), most theaters are running 3-4 TET showings tonight. However, the big AMC Veterans 24 (in Tampa) already has 17 showings scheduled for tonight: 2 in IMAX; 2 in Dolby; and 13 standard. Just glancing at showing starting the first hour of EA screenings: the 6:30 pm IMAX showing has 77 seats sold (adult ticket price: $26.76). The 6:15 pm Dolby showing has 40 sold (adult ticket price: $26.76 as well). Standard 6:15 pm showing has 4 sold, the 6:45 pm has 5 sold (both at a $21.38 ticket price). Across the bay in St. Petersburg, the one IMAX theater (AMC Sundial 12) has a 6 pm TET showing that has sold 81 tickets (adult ticket price of $26.63). It's not like a fair number of seats aren't filling up, particularly in the premium formats.