JimmyB

Yeah, Im down on the box office and I was looking for a little hope...maybe false hope, lol

I dont see anything in the article. Could be Deadline Anthony tossing out a best case opening weekend after a lackluster weekend at the box office.

no way Deadline believes the summer will be under 3 billion? Also, saying 40m opening weekend for Fall Guy From Deadline- What happens now in this cruel summer box office that might not hit $3 billion? This coming weekend, it’s Universal’s The Fall Guy, starring Emily Blunt and Ryan Gosling. If it’s lucky after a SXSW world premiere over a month ago, it will hit $40M, and the expectation is that movie will hold and pull in women thanks to post-Barbie Gosling Ken. https://deadline.com/2024/04/box-office-challengers-zendaya-1235896116/

The embargo lifts May 10th a week after its release, Sony isnt going to let bad reviews hurt its opening weekend.

I dont think something like The Fall Guy bombing changes anything but what will the excuses be? During the strikes, when a lot of movies weren't opening well, a common excuse was the stars of the films can't promote the movie...i saw that excuse a lot for The Marvels. The Fall Guy has had it's stars promoting the movie same with all releases this year. Can't use that excuse anymore. @Porthos has an interesting comment in the tracking thread responding to the lack of 100m dollar openers and the strike being the cause. Movies that got delayed because of the strike to 2024 Dune 2, Ghostbusters, Challengers have come out. Kraven the Hunter keeps getting moved but do we expect much from that before the strikes. Captain America Brave New World was supposed to come out May 2024, moved to July 2024 and moved to Feb 2025 but is going to have extensive reshoots for months. So, was the delay because of the strikes or because it tested poorly and The Marvels bombing caused Disney to try and fix it. Snow White was supposed to come out March 2024 and was delayed a year again was that movie even ready to release in 2024? Deadpool was supposed to come out November 2024 and moved up. My point is, what movies that moved from 2023 because of strikes are missing or would have changed 2024 box office as of today? I agree, starting with Deadpool it looks like we have some nice hits coming but some are going to disappoint.

Prequel lovers are very vocal online will be interesting to see if they show up next weekend. 23 tickets sold for The Fall Guy on T-5 seems insanely low.

The trades have been reporting on movies budgets for over a 100 years. Which movies are seen as financial winners and losers have been a part of Hollywood forever. It's always been a dick measuring contest....from RKO Pictures to MGM to WB to Disney.

I think the Fall Guy opening to 30m in March or May would be seen as a failure either way because of the budget. The two most commonly used comps for this are The Lost City (68-74m budget) and Bullet Train (85-90m budget). Once, Variety reported the budget for Fall Guy was 125m it immediately raises expectations. From Variety - Chill factor: Leitch, whose credits include “Deadpool 2” and “Bullet Train,” has a solid track record of blending gonzo with goofy. But big-budget action films have mostly fallen out of favor at the box office. At the same time, all of those practical effects are pricey. “The Fall Guy cost $125 million and requires outsized global ticket sales to justify its existence. Verdict: Early buzz indicates a fun and funny action-adventure, but it’s hard to make these movies stick, even with two likable stars.

From Deadline - Some might snipe that for a movie of this budget to do this kind of number is meh, or really harp on “Oh, this is how much Zendaya is worth without a franchise,” however, the whole industry should just count its blessings in a funky marketplace, this weekend delivering some $65M, off 36% from the same weekend a year ago. I love Deadline Anthony. Man really missed his calling being a spokesperson for politicians. No idea how he'll handle The Fall Guy opening to 25m next weekend. https://deadline.com/2024/04/box-office-challengers-zendaya-1235896116/

Match Point and Wimbledon sure as hell didnt get an all out marketing push like Challengers. Match Point played in barely 500 theaters. Wimbledon barely played in 2k theaters. Are we trying to spin Challengers weekend as a success? The numbers are bad. Zendaya got 10m and good for her but this is the result for 10m bucks....has to be a disappointment.

That seems overly optimistic based on the preview numbers but 420m is what I predicted for the month's total in the 2024 thread. So, I'll take it, lol

This weekend's total box office will be around 50m'ish. Should be just enough to get the total box office gross for April to 400M. https://www.boxofficemojo.com/month/april/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses

IDK, Tarot feels like a dump, no buzz. At least with First Omen and Abigail I saw commercials on ESPN during the NBA games. Ive seen nothing for Tarot if I wasnt a movie nerd I wouldnt even know it was coming out.

I know its only one theater but if this forum says a movies presales are popping I like checking my local Cinemark and will see sales are doing great like the forum says. This theater is probably the busiest theater in Jacksonville and its in a nice area of town...lots of homes, apartments, restaurants and a huge outdoor mall. The area would be the prime demo for a movie like Fall Guy, Fall Guy sales are just DOA. 5 sales for two showtimes 5/1 early access. 5 sales for six showtimes 5/2 Thursday. https://www.cinemark.com/theatres/fl-jacksonville/cinemark-tinseltown-jacksonville-and-xd?showDate=2024-05-01

The budget for Challengers was made with Amazon MGM 2 years ago when they were spending like drunken sailors....160m for Air, A movie called Red Shirt in development....Tatum to be paid $25 million, Leitch to get $18 million, with Kinberg nabbing $8 million for his services. The deals made in 2021 and 2022 by Amazon MGM are insane. Since, the start of the year Amazon has been laying off several hundred employees at Prime Video and Amazon MGM Studios. I don't think this budget or deal is made today for Challengers.

This movie could also get a massive pop from what is looking like an epic box office drought. April is looking to barely gross 400m, May looks like it'll gross under 700m, June is looking meh besides Inside Out 2 and another kids movie comes July 4th weekend. It's really setup as the one Event movie of summer and August looks weak as well.

This movie looks awful, lol. 6m opening weekend

That's not good. Your T-10 Civil War run showed it sold 1321 tickets and 57 since yesterday. The Fall Guy, with all this marketing is going to fall behind Civil War sales tomorrow.

the top comment on Reddit that's about box office is should make around GOTG3 number which would be around 850m worldwide. That seems like a reasonable/positive take for an R-rated movie.

The director said part of the appeal of making “Trap” was the idea of telling the story “from the vantage point of an unexpected person” — in this case, . “It kind of led more and more to this dark humor angle that ‘Servant’ has and ‘The Visit’ and ‘Split’ had.” Maybe, M Night is using 1998 Snake Eyes as his template....a concert instead of a boxing match...Snake Eyes tried doing the "real time" thing.

Looks like a Deadpool movie with Wolverine. Im not sure how much Wolverine adds to the box office since id think theyd have the same audience.

Is 60-70m where these adult movies will land now....Killers of a Flower Moon, Napoleon, Civil War, even Beekeeper landed in this range. Terrible weekend at the box office but if I need excuses why movies fail this forum is the place, lol. Its never as simple as the general audience just doesnt care about going to the theater anymore unless its some IP they know....Dune, Panda, GB and Gxk. The crazy thing about the box office recently is alot of movies now are unable to even crack the 20m or 30m range. Only, 10 movies released this year have grossed over 40m domestic. Monkey Man had a HUGE marketing budget for it and Deadlines spin today is its already north of 21m after 3 weekends. Deadline also ignores Ready or Not opened on a Wednesday. From Deadline: Universal’s B CinemaScore, but 82% certified fresh vampire movie, Abigail, starring Melissa Barrera will at least hit $10M after a $4M Friday. The opening here is a little bit higher than Radio Silence’s Ready or Not ($8M) which was a Searchlight release and did a 3.6x multiple off a B+ CinemaScore. It will be interesting to see how this one legs out. In addition, Abigail‘s opening is right near the start of Dev Patel’s genre action movie Monkey Man three weekends ago which did $10.1M; that’s already north of $21M.

Are horror fans getting more picky too? Last weekend the overall marketplace around $77.4M....this weekend with 3 new wide releases per Deadline 65.8M weekend.

The box office numbers domestically just are bad. When you start digging into the numbers its almost unbelievable how far behind the box office is or ticket sales are to the box office average from 2016-2019. My local Cinemark is a big 20 screen theater and last night we drove by it and the parking lot had maybe 40 cars just a fucking ghost town. When we go, half the time no one is even checking your tickets and you'll only have 2 people working concessions. Im not sure how they stay in business. 9-10 years ago I worked at that Cinemark. A slow weekend for us was usually the weekend after Labor Day. The weekend after Labor Day in 2014 No Good Deed opened to almost 25 million and Dolphin Tale 2 did almost 16 million. In 2015, The Perfect Guy opened to almost 26 million and The Visit opened to 25 million. These were what we called slow weekends. In 2024 do any of these 4 films even open to 12 million. Might seem harsh but in 2024 people see these movies are streaming films. This was Deadline's spin from last weekend. Down 31% compared to the same weekend 5 years ago. 5 years! We are comparing revenue for a business to 5 years ago and with inflation that revenue is still down 31%. Despite the great business for a movie like Civil War, the overall marketplace at $77.4M still dragged behind last year’s Super Mario Bros mojo at -48%, but was only behind 2019’s same April weekend at -31%.

April's box office is awful. Which was expected. All the movies released this month have good to great reviews but your average joe doesnt care. They'll wait for these movies on Netflix or whatever streaming service.