JimmyB

IDK, Tarot feels like a dump, no buzz. At least with First Omen and Abigail I saw commercials on ESPN during the NBA games. Ive seen nothing for Tarot if I wasnt a movie nerd I wouldnt even know it was coming out.

I know its only one theater but if this forum says a movies presales are popping I like checking my local Cinemark and will see sales are doing great like the forum says. This theater is probably the busiest theater in Jacksonville and its in a nice area of town...lots of homes, apartments, restaurants and a huge outdoor mall. The area would be the prime demo for a movie like Fall Guy, Fall Guy sales are just DOA. 5 sales for two showtimes 5/1 early access. 5 sales for six showtimes 5/2 Thursday. https://www.cinemark.com/theatres/fl-jacksonville/cinemark-tinseltown-jacksonville-and-xd?showDate=2024-05-01

The budget for Challengers was made with Amazon MGM 2 years ago when they were spending like drunken sailors....160m for Air, A movie called Red Shirt in development....Tatum to be paid $25 million, Leitch to get $18 million, with Kinberg nabbing $8 million for his services. The deals made in 2021 and 2022 by Amazon MGM are insane. Since, the start of the year Amazon has been laying off several hundred employees at Prime Video and Amazon MGM Studios. I don't think this budget or deal is made today for Challengers.

This movie could also get a massive pop from what is looking like an epic box office drought. April is looking to barely gross 400m, May looks like it'll gross under 700m, June is looking meh besides Inside Out 2 and another kids movie comes July 4th weekend. It's really setup as the one Event movie of summer and August looks weak as well.

This movie looks awful, lol. 6m opening weekend

That's not good. Your T-10 Civil War run showed it sold 1321 tickets and 57 since yesterday. The Fall Guy, with all this marketing is going to fall behind Civil War sales tomorrow.

the top comment on Reddit that's about box office is should make around GOTG3 number which would be around 850m worldwide. That seems like a reasonable/positive take for an R-rated movie.

The director said part of the appeal of making “Trap” was the idea of telling the story “from the vantage point of an unexpected person” — in this case, . “It kind of led more and more to this dark humor angle that ‘Servant’ has and ‘The Visit’ and ‘Split’ had.” Maybe, M Night is using 1998 Snake Eyes as his template....a concert instead of a boxing match...Snake Eyes tried doing the "real time" thing.

Looks like a Deadpool movie with Wolverine. Im not sure how much Wolverine adds to the box office since id think theyd have the same audience.

Is 60-70m where these adult movies will land now....Killers of a Flower Moon, Napoleon, Civil War, even Beekeeper landed in this range. Terrible weekend at the box office but if I need excuses why movies fail this forum is the place, lol. Its never as simple as the general audience just doesnt care about going to the theater anymore unless its some IP they know....Dune, Panda, GB and Gxk. The crazy thing about the box office recently is alot of movies now are unable to even crack the 20m or 30m range. Only, 10 movies released this year have grossed over 40m domestic. Monkey Man had a HUGE marketing budget for it and Deadlines spin today is its already north of 21m after 3 weekends. Deadline also ignores Ready or Not opened on a Wednesday. From Deadline: Universal’s B CinemaScore, but 82% certified fresh vampire movie, Abigail, starring Melissa Barrera will at least hit $10M after a $4M Friday. The opening here is a little bit higher than Radio Silence’s Ready or Not ($8M) which was a Searchlight release and did a 3.6x multiple off a B+ CinemaScore. It will be interesting to see how this one legs out. In addition, Abigail‘s opening is right near the start of Dev Patel’s genre action movie Monkey Man three weekends ago which did $10.1M; that’s already north of $21M.

Are horror fans getting more picky too? Last weekend the overall marketplace around $77.4M....this weekend with 3 new wide releases per Deadline 65.8M weekend.

The box office numbers domestically just are bad. When you start digging into the numbers its almost unbelievable how far behind the box office is or ticket sales are to the box office average from 2016-2019. My local Cinemark is a big 20 screen theater and last night we drove by it and the parking lot had maybe 40 cars just a fucking ghost town. When we go, half the time no one is even checking your tickets and you'll only have 2 people working concessions. Im not sure how they stay in business. 9-10 years ago I worked at that Cinemark. A slow weekend for us was usually the weekend after Labor Day. The weekend after Labor Day in 2014 No Good Deed opened to almost 25 million and Dolphin Tale 2 did almost 16 million. In 2015, The Perfect Guy opened to almost 26 million and The Visit opened to 25 million. These were what we called slow weekends. In 2024 do any of these 4 films even open to 12 million. Might seem harsh but in 2024 people see these movies are streaming films. This was Deadline's spin from last weekend. Down 31% compared to the same weekend 5 years ago. 5 years! We are comparing revenue for a business to 5 years ago and with inflation that revenue is still down 31%. Despite the great business for a movie like Civil War, the overall marketplace at $77.4M still dragged behind last year’s Super Mario Bros mojo at -48%, but was only behind 2019’s same April weekend at -31%.

April's box office is awful. Which was expected. All the movies released this month have good to great reviews but your average joe doesnt care. They'll wait for these movies on Netflix or whatever streaming service.

Lionsgate is calling their all-in previews for Guy Ritchie’s The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare at $1.45M, however that includes around $600K in advance shows from last weekend in addition to Thursday’s cash. Which means Universal’s Radio Silence vampire movie, Abigail, won Thursday previews with $1M. Meanwhile, Sony Crunchyroll’s anime movie Spy x Family Code: White did $670K from shows that began at 4PM. The weekend crown is expected to be a game of rock, paper, scissors between Abigail and A24’s second weekend of Civil War at about $12M+ apiece. Civil War led Thursday among pics in regular release with $1.6M, -14% from Wednesday, for a first week of $33.1M at 3,838 theaters.

Im just not sure SXSW matters or early reviews or hosting SNL or social media reactions for the majority of movies. Universal did everything for Monkey Man....put Dev on every TV talk show, SXSW premium, early reviews, super bowl ad, etc, and the majority of people who saw that trailer probably thought yeah I'll wait to see that movie on streaming.....same thing with the First Omen, same thing with the majority of releases this year. People will pay to see a giant Ape punch things because it looks like something that needs to be seen on the biggest screen possible but another religious horror movie (First Omen) and another vampire movie (Abigail) doesnt matter how good they are it just doesnt seem to get people to the theater.

More recent adult R rated movies that opened wide and didn't release in the summer or holidays. its not a lot. Killers of a Flower Moon Tuesday bump was 41.7%. After a Sunday to Monday drop of 64%. Killers dropped 60% its 2nd weekend. Cocaine Bear Tuesday bump 40%. Sunday to Monday drop 70%. 2nd weekend drop 52%. Woman King Tuesday bump 47%. Sunday to Monday drop 72%. 2nd weekend drop 42%. Don't Worry Darling Tuesday bump 20%. Sunday to Monday drop 59%. 2nd weekend drop 65%.

A24’s Civil War, which currently counts $27M through Monday after $1.9M yesterday, will need to defend its No. 1 flag from Universal’s Radio Silence directed genre title Abigail. Both are looking at around $12M apeice. Lionsgate’s Guy Ritchie directed The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare which is looking at mid single digits as well as Spy x Family Code: White which is looking to do about the same. May can't come soon enough for theaters. https://deadline.com/2024/04/box-office-preview-civil-war-abigail-the-ministry-of-ungentlemanly-warfare-1235887561/

From THR 3 weeks before its release. So, its doing better. The dystopian action movie came on tracking Thursday morning, three weeks ahead of its debut in theaters across the U.S. One leading service shows the much buzzed-about movie starting off with a strong $21 million thanks to interest among younger males, and even among younger females. That’s ahead of the $13.6 million opening of A24’s horror pic Hereditary in 2018, which to date is the top start for the indie studio and distributor. (The tracking service’s full range is $18 million to $24 million for Civil War.) https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/civil-war-movie-box-office-tracking-1235857295/

Anime usually extremely front loaded. I guess I wouldnt be surprised by 9m Spy X 8.5m Abigail (around First Omen) 7m Warfare (around Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant)

iSpot shows that Universal shelled out as much for TV spots on Monkey Man as Warner’s did for GxK –around $16M. Monkey Man‘s campaign, which launched at SXSW, pulled in 331M impressions to Disney’s 265M impressions on First Omen. iSpot shows the Mouse House spending around $4M in spots. Uni aired spots for Monkey Man on NFL games (30.6%), men’s college basketball (27.0%), NBA (8.3%), women’s college basketball (3.4%) and the show Chicago Fire (2.4%). Most ad impressions for Monkey Man were on CBS (50%), and that’s due to that Monkey Man Super Bowl spot.

Per Deadline below maybe helpful data for how Santikos tracks for certain movies. A24 is calling Civil War at a $25.7M opening. Rival studios are also seeing it around that range. This is after an $8.76M Saturday, which was +11% from Friday’s pure $7.9M

The box office the past 9 months is what it looks like when we dont have a movie be an event and be a part of the zeitgeist. Over, the past 3 years, 5 movies have entered the top 15 domestic highest grosses of all time....NWH, TGM, Avatar 2, Barbie and Mario. That's great but what happens when we don't have one of these "event" movies. This is what the box office looks like. GxK opened to 80m and is probably not hitting 200m. GB opened to 45m and will barely crawl over 100m. This is bad. A bunch of movies aren't filling the gap. I don't know the solution to get people to the theater. May doesn't look like it has an "event" movie maybe Fall Guy is the one that surprises. June has Inside Out 2 and you'd hope that can do Spiderverse numbers. Bad Boys 4 maybe Transformers Rise of the Beast numbers. Quiet Place and Horizon open the last weekend of June but nothing else in June looks like a huge hit. July needs Twisters, Despicable Me or Deadpool to be massive. August has an Alien movie and thats about it.

So much potential wasted IMO. I needed something to be invested in the story.....anything why is the war happening, who started it, the movie is spineless. Yes, the action is decent but I didnt care. I didnt care about anything that was happening. C-.

So, Civil War is going to do Cocaine Bear numbers at the domestic box office. Total box office this weekend will be around 70m'ish. YTD box office down around 18% vs 2023 about 400m behind 2023. Monkey Man & Omen will both finish under 30m domestic. Civil War will win April with a number in the 60m. The two new releases next weekend will both finish under 30m domestic. Leaving only Challengers which will probably not do much. Depressing April for the new wide releases but it was expected.

Pre sales for Abigail and Ministry look like both movies will open below 10m