JimmyB

Lionsgate is calling their all-in previews for Guy Ritchie’s The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare at $1.45M, however that includes around $600K in advance shows from last weekend in addition to Thursday’s cash. Which means Universal’s Radio Silence vampire movie, Abigail, won Thursday previews with $1M. Meanwhile, Sony Crunchyroll’s anime movie Spy x Family Code: White did $670K from shows that began at 4PM. The weekend crown is expected to be a game of rock, paper, scissors between Abigail and A24’s second weekend of Civil War at about $12M+ apiece. Civil War led Thursday among pics in regular release with $1.6M, -14% from Wednesday, for a first week of $33.1M at 3,838 theaters.

Im just not sure SXSW matters or early reviews or hosting SNL or social media reactions for the majority of movies. Universal did everything for Monkey Man....put Dev on every TV talk show, SXSW premium, early reviews, super bowl ad, etc, and the majority of people who saw that trailer probably thought yeah I'll wait to see that movie on streaming.....same thing with the First Omen, same thing with the majority of releases this year. People will pay to see a giant Ape punch things because it looks like something that needs to be seen on the biggest screen possible but another religious horror movie (First Omen) and another vampire movie (Abigail) doesnt matter how good they are it just doesnt seem to get people to the theater.

More recent adult R rated movies that opened wide and didn't release in the summer or holidays. its not a lot. Killers of a Flower Moon Tuesday bump was 41.7%. After a Sunday to Monday drop of 64%. Killers dropped 60% its 2nd weekend. Cocaine Bear Tuesday bump 40%. Sunday to Monday drop 70%. 2nd weekend drop 52%. Woman King Tuesday bump 47%. Sunday to Monday drop 72%. 2nd weekend drop 42%. Don't Worry Darling Tuesday bump 20%. Sunday to Monday drop 59%. 2nd weekend drop 65%.

A24’s Civil War, which currently counts $27M through Monday after $1.9M yesterday, will need to defend its No. 1 flag from Universal’s Radio Silence directed genre title Abigail. Both are looking at around $12M apeice. Lionsgate’s Guy Ritchie directed The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare which is looking at mid single digits as well as Spy x Family Code: White which is looking to do about the same. May can't come soon enough for theaters. https://deadline.com/2024/04/box-office-preview-civil-war-abigail-the-ministry-of-ungentlemanly-warfare-1235887561/

From THR 3 weeks before its release. So, its doing better. The dystopian action movie came on tracking Thursday morning, three weeks ahead of its debut in theaters across the U.S. One leading service shows the much buzzed-about movie starting off with a strong $21 million thanks to interest among younger males, and even among younger females. That’s ahead of the $13.6 million opening of A24’s horror pic Hereditary in 2018, which to date is the top start for the indie studio and distributor. (The tracking service’s full range is $18 million to $24 million for Civil War.) https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/civil-war-movie-box-office-tracking-1235857295/

Anime usually extremely front loaded. I guess I wouldnt be surprised by 9m Spy X 8.5m Abigail (around First Omen) 7m Warfare (around Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant)

iSpot shows that Universal shelled out as much for TV spots on Monkey Man as Warner’s did for GxK –around $16M. Monkey Man‘s campaign, which launched at SXSW, pulled in 331M impressions to Disney’s 265M impressions on First Omen. iSpot shows the Mouse House spending around $4M in spots. Uni aired spots for Monkey Man on NFL games (30.6%), men’s college basketball (27.0%), NBA (8.3%), women’s college basketball (3.4%) and the show Chicago Fire (2.4%). Most ad impressions for Monkey Man were on CBS (50%), and that’s due to that Monkey Man Super Bowl spot.

Per Deadline below maybe helpful data for how Santikos tracks for certain movies. A24 is calling Civil War at a $25.7M opening. Rival studios are also seeing it around that range. This is after an $8.76M Saturday, which was +11% from Friday’s pure $7.9M

The box office the past 9 months is what it looks like when we dont have a movie be an event and be a part of the zeitgeist. Over, the past 3 years, 5 movies have entered the top 15 domestic highest grosses of all time....NWH, TGM, Avatar 2, Barbie and Mario. That's great but what happens when we don't have one of these "event" movies. This is what the box office looks like. GxK opened to 80m and is probably not hitting 200m. GB opened to 45m and will barely crawl over 100m. This is bad. A bunch of movies aren't filling the gap. I don't know the solution to get people to the theater. May doesn't look like it has an "event" movie maybe Fall Guy is the one that surprises. June has Inside Out 2 and you'd hope that can do Spiderverse numbers. Bad Boys 4 maybe Transformers Rise of the Beast numbers. Quiet Place and Horizon open the last weekend of June but nothing else in June looks like a huge hit. July needs Twisters, Despicable Me or Deadpool to be massive. August has an Alien movie and thats about it.

So much potential wasted IMO. I needed something to be invested in the story.....anything why is the war happening, who started it, the movie is spineless. Yes, the action is decent but I didnt care. I didnt care about anything that was happening. C-.

So, Civil War is going to do Cocaine Bear numbers at the domestic box office. Total box office this weekend will be around 70m'ish. YTD box office down around 18% vs 2023 about 400m behind 2023. Monkey Man & Omen will both finish under 30m domestic. Civil War will win April with a number in the 60m. The two new releases next weekend will both finish under 30m domestic. Leaving only Challengers which will probably not do much. Depressing April for the new wide releases but it was expected.

Pre sales for Abigail and Ministry look like both movies will open below 10m

Only in theaters May 5, 2025....oops

I don't think trailer views is a great way to predict box office but here's a couple recent movies that had a ton of views in 24 hours.. Thor: Love and Thunder - Teaser trailer - Walt Disney Studios - 209m - April 18, 2022 Transformers: Rise of the Beasts - Teaser trailer - Paramount Pictures - 238m - December 1, 2022

La La Land, Singing in the Rain? Looks like a couple big song and dance set pieces

Late summer studio dump date

This should have been the National Lampoon's Vacation remake not that Ed Helms thing.

So, what is this movie? Is it just a road trip movie looking at different parts of this Civil War? But, you have no idea why its happening or why you should care about the war?

I was just using Godzilla as an example but my overall point was revenue isnt increasing but costs are. This is bad business. It's bad for theaters. Theaters are squeezing every dollar they can from a declining consumer base. I'm not saying theaters will no longer exist because I don't believe that but more theaters closing I do believe is coming. Theaters will need to give the customer an experience they can't get at home....bigger everything screens, sound, seats. Maybe, multiplexes will remodel from 12 screens to 6 IMAX type screens. IDK, but what makes money in theaters today is very obvious. For, every original hit like Anyone Buy You (88m domestic) we get 10 that fail just look at the top grossing movies this year.

Ordinary Angels? That movie already came out and is gone from theaters. Do you mean Unsung Hero? That looks like the same type of movie as Ordinary Angels. Movies that open to around 7m and end their run at 18m.

The problem I see for theaters, we are comparing GxK a 2024 movie to Godzilla a 2014 movie movie. Why is this a problem for theaters? What's the ATP in 2014 vs 2024? If the ATP increased 35% that means a decrease in tickets sold by 35%. Where did the 35% of the consumer base go? The population increased since 2014. Everything, in 2024 cost more to run a business from labor, rent, food, heating and air vs 2014. Yet, theaters revenue < 10 years ago. This is bad. Theaters seem to be raising prices more and pushing people to see everything in PLFs (where they can charge even more). See Challengers in IMAX! They are squeezing every dollar they can out of a decreasing consumer base. This is why I think original IP will continue to fail in theaters because people will wait for the "event movie" "fear of missing out movie" to spend 100 dollars plus for a family of 4 night out at the theater.

How does this first weekend in April rank vs other first weekend's in April. 2024 - 85m'ish. (#1 film Gxk) 2023 - 204m. (#1 film Mario) 2022 - 75m. (#1 film Mobius) 2019 - 145m (#1 film Shazam!) 2018 - 163M (#1 film A Quiet Place) 2017 - 119m (#1 film The Boss Baby 2nd weekend) 2016 - 132m (#1 film BvS 2nd weekend) 2015 - 224m (#1 film Furious 7) 2014 - 167m (#1 film Captain America Winter Solider) 2013 - 134m (#1 film Evil Dead) 2012 - 122m (#1 film Hunger Games 3rd weekend) 2011 - 124m (#1 film Hop) 2010 - 177m (#1 film Clash of the Titans)

Deadline's early Friday numbers vs actuals last week. 31m Gxk Estimate...they did an update a couple hours later because the lowball was way to low. 36.8m actual. Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire is $5.1M Actual 5.495m Kung Fu Panda 4 at 3,582 sites, which is seeing a fourth Friday of $4.3M Actual 3.9m Neon’s Immaculate at 2,362 theaters with a second Friday of $1M Actual 1.1m

Men's Final Four is Saturday Night too. Even the Iowa women's game tonight will get 10m+ viewers.

Disappointing numbers but not surprising. Night Swim is the only horror movie get over 30m domestic. The First Omen preview number is half of Night Swim.