Relevation

Something must be up with Garfield at one of my theaters, as the back row is completely clear out in all 3 standard showings with not much else going on. Not sure if this is a strong preference for the back row, or if these seats are blocked out.

Fast forward to June 25 when we’re having this conversation about Horizon

For the trackers who use spreadsheets here, does anyone else color code their spreadsheets by movie? I've been doing it for a few weeks now and it makes my spreadsheet much more fun to look at while compiling data

What kind of IM do we think IF will land? Elemental level of like 12.2x?

66 day presale window? That's pretty wack

TWO THEATER MN PRESALES TRACK (T-1) 05/16/24 The Strangers: Chapter One - 36 tickets sold IF - 33 tickets sold Back to Black - 9 tickets sold COMPS The Strangers: Chapter One 1.71x of Abigail ($1.71M) 2.11x of Imaginary ($1.54M) 2.77x of The First Omen ($2.01M) 3.00x of Tarot ($2.15M) AVERAGE: $1.85M IF 0.27x of Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire ($1.27M) 0.31x of Kung Fu Panda 4 ($1.19M) 0.63x of Argylle ($1.08M) AVERAGE: $1.18M Back to Black 0.03x of Bob Marley: One Love ($370K) 0.17x of Challengers ($272K) 0.41x of Drive-Away Dolls ($184K) 0.75x of The Book of Clarence ($214K) AVERAGE: $260K And the horror curse of this market has been vanquished! The Strangers: Chapter One sold surprisingly well here, even somehow knocking IF for best selling movie of the weekend. Comps are hovering in the $1.5-2.2M range and I don't have a clue how walkups play here, but I suppose the $1.85M THU average my comps spit out sounds pretty right, combined with a $15Mish OW. IF completely tanked here, brutal comp average with no good comparisons at all. $1.2-1.5M THU and something in the ballpark of an $18-24M OW? And for how shitty IF did, Back to Black cratered even harder, and likely would've been the worst selling movie I've ever tracked had I not run numbers a little late. Sub-$300K THU and a $2.5-4M OW.

I think I've clocked what the presales pattern is gonna look like here

Do you have a D1 KFP4 and/or Little Mermaid comp? Because cross checking with KFP4 the ratio looks a lot better than the above comps

I think A Quiet Place hits $7M in the end, but horror movies are usually backloaded and especially since it’s kind of a monster movie, I think it’ll be more of a late pickup Same thing for Bad Boys but to even more of an extent, I think that could easily be seeing $8M+ by the time T-0 walkups roll in

Since IO2 and Bad Boys both start ticket sales this week, I’m gonna call my shot on where Thurs comps for all the June movies start off (not outright predictions, just where I think comps start off based on my overall expectations) Bad Boys: Ride or Die - $5-6M Thu The Watchers - $1.0-1.5M Thu Inside Out 2 - $14-17M Thu Horizon: An American Saga - Part 1 - $2-3M Thu A Quiet Place: Day One - $4-5M Thu

I think The Little Mermaid is probably the best comp for whoever has it, big Disney nostalgia IP movie iwith normal ticketing window and didn’t come out long enough ago to be unhelpful

TWO THEATER MN PRESALES TRACK (T-1) 05/09/24 Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes - 72 tickets sold COMPS 0.20x of Dune: Part Two ($1.83M) 0.385x of Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire ($3.85M) 1.53x of Monkey Man ($2.14M) AVERAGE: $2.61M Well, Planet of the Apes clearly isn't a hot property in MN. Apes bombed badly here, selling worse than Spy x Family and Ordinary Angels, and failing to clear $4M against any serious comp. GxK probably closest to the mark, but my market blew way under what everyone else is seeing. Hence my prediction is significantly higher, to the tune of almost double what the comps say here. $5M THU and a $55M OW is where I'm thinking.

EVERY SUMMER MOVIE I HAVE OVER $50M DOM 1. Inside Out 2 - $148M OW / $551M DOM 2. Deadpool & Wolverine - $205M OW / $402M DOM 3. Despicable Me 4 - $104M OW / $335M DOM 4. The Garfield Movie - $54M OW / $200M DOM 5. Horizon: An American Saga - Part 2 - $40M OW / $176M DOM 6. Bad Boys: Ride or Die - $61M OW / $169M DOM 7. A Quiet Place: Day One - $53M OW / $164M DOM 8. Horizon: An American Saga - Part 1 - $27M OW / $149M DOM 9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga - $49M OW / $147M DOM 10. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes - $48M OW / $145M DOM 11. Alien: Romulus - $36M OW / $108M DOM 12. Twisters - $37M OW / $103M DOM 13. IF - $29M OW / $100M DOM 14. Trap - $24M OW / $91M DOM 15. The Fall Guy - $28M OW / $88M DOM 16. It Ends With Us - $20M OW / $66M DOM 17. Borderlands - $21M OW / $55M DOM 18. Fly Me to the Moon - $16M OW / $50M DOM (if we’re counting it) 3. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice - $124M OW / $347M DOM

TWO THEATER MN PRESALES TRACK (T-1) 05/01/24 (05/02/24 for Phantom Menace) The Fall Guy - 80 tickets sold Tarot - 12 tickets sold Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace (Friday/re-release) - 124 tickets sold COMPS The Fall Guy (Thu only) 0.43x of Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire ($4.27M) 0.63x of Civil War ($1.84M) 0.66x of Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire ($3.08M) 1.54x of Argylle ($2.61M) 3.20x of The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare ($2.72M) AVERAGE: $2.99M Tarot 0.57x of Abigail ($570K) 0.70x of Imaginary ($512K) 0.92x of The First Omen ($669K) AVERAGE: $584K Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace (Friday) 0.34x of Dune: Part Two ($3.15M) 0.77x of Madame Web ($4.63M) 1.29x of Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba - To the Hashira Training ($2.33M) AVERAGE: $3.37M Posting a day later because I wanted to pull Phantom Menace data on T-1. Fall Guy and Tarot were both pulled Wednesday night as usual. The Fall Guy comps are kinda all over the place, because GxK under indexed and Civil War over indexed, but the average came just under $3M which sounds pretty right to me and likely means a debut in the high $20M range. $2.75-3M THU and a $25-28M OW is my prediction. Tarot sold very poorly as all horror seems to do in my market, and tied with The Book of Clarence for second worst seller on record. Thankfully tho my comps have been fairly predictable here, so $500-600K THU and a $6-7M OW sounds reasonable. I had no idea what to comp Phantom Menace with, throwing sci-fi with Dune, an all day release with Madame Web, and fan heavy rush with Demon Slayer into that possibly indicative $3.4M average. Could easily fall below $3M or swing close to $5M but since my anime comps were skewing weirdly low (hence why I didn’t add Spy x Family), I’m gonna err higher and say $3.5-4M THU and a $13-18M weekend.

I think the absolute worst scenario on the table for The Fall Guy is The Phantom Menace somehow beating it for #1 in a $20M to $19M style situation, that would be a total nightmare for all talent involved

Honestly, I feel people are really overstating how much the strikes in particular are to blame for the rough BO for the first 4 months of this year. Not saying it had no impact, but look at what the schedule here was like before the strikes: (Bolded were delayed out of Jan-Apr 2024) 01/05 - Night Swim 01/12 - Bob Marley: One Love, The Book of Clarence, The Beekeeper 01/19 - The Tiger’s Apprentice 02/02 - Argylle, Wise Guys, Imaginary 02/09 - It Ends With Us, Dirty Dancing 2 02/16 - Madame Web 03/01 - The Fall Guy, Elio 03/08 - Kung Fu Panda 4, A Quiet Place: Day One 03/15 - Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire 03/22 - Snow White 03/29 - Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse, Mickey 17 04/12 - The Lord of the Rings: The War for the Rohirrim 04/19 - Abigail Now on paper this looks better, but I really doubt this schedule holds up irregardless of the strikes. Elio, Snow White, Beyond the Spider-Verse, and Mickey 17 all had significant production troubles predating the strikes and likely wouldn’t have made their dates had they happened or not. The Tiger’s Apprentice was punted direct to streaming so I don’t think that changes without the strikes happening. I really doubt Sony wants to keep It Ends With Us right next to Madame Web even without the strikes, so that probably would’ve been moved elsewhere too. So really, the only major strike casualties here were Wise Guys, Dirty Dancing 2, The Fall Guy, A Quiet Place: Day One, and The Lord of the Rings: The War for the Rohirrim, none huge grossers or even likely to clear $150M in their pre-strike dates. And The Fall Guy only moved to May 3 anyways, not even a stone’s throw away. In comparison to what the schedule doesn’t have without the strikes, obviously no Dune: Part Two. That’s a massive $275M+ grosser just not on the board at all, on top of Civil War likely not doing as well due to increased PLF competition, Mean Girls potentially not getting moved off Paramount+ due to the lack of needed demand, and no Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire either. The 4 movies that moved decently far away largely because of the strikes (AQP:D1, DD2, Wise Guys, and LOTR) probably combined make around $320M+ ish domestic, off some back of napkin math. Losing Ghostbusters, possibly Mean Girls, and Dune while Civil War does $30M worse means you lose $435-500M+ in unrealized revenue from movies which would not have been in Q1 2024 had the strikes not happened. Which honestly lends credence to the idea that the strikes actually helped the box office in this window specifically, because more money was made than otherwise would’ve happened. So I really don’t think the strikes should be the bogeyman for the catatonic BO this year so far, it really was just a real drought of major tentpoles due to production woes, and a bunch of mid range movies that didn’t really connect. We were in for a rough go of things no matter what when Argylle is the only $200M+ budgeted blockbuster in the first two months of the year and none of the Christmas tentpoles are doing anything to save that. Possibly off topic for this thread but that was sitting in my head for a bit and I felt like mentioning it

Is anyone tracking the Phantom Menace re-release? It’s selling phenomenally in one of my friend’s markets for FRI, even outstripping Dune previews at the same point and it’s already well clear of Challengers, Argylle, and The Beekeeper’s entire runs at my market. Could be looking at a double digit debut.

TWO THEATER MN PRESALES TRACK (T-1/0) 04/25/24 Challengers - 52 tickets sold Unsung Hero - 44 tickets sold Boy Kills World - 9 tickets sold COMPS (all Thurs only) Challengers 0.32x of Madame Web ($1.94M) 0.34x of Mean Girls ($1.12M) 0.41x of Civil War ($1.20M) 2.36x of Drive-Away Dolls ($1.06M) 2.48x of Abigail ($2.48M) AVERAGE: $1.56M Unsung Hero 0.56x of Ordinary Angels ($161K) 1.22x of Cabrini ($611K) AVERAGE: $386K Boy Kills World 0.19x of Monkey Man ($268K) 0.36x of The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare ($306K) AVERAGE: $287K Challengers on the whole looks to be skewing a little low here, hence why I added the higher Madame Web and Abigail comps to shore up the average. Probably a Thurs preview finish in the $1.75-2M range given mine and other trackers' data, which yields nicely for a $15-20M debut. Unsung Hero looks kinda bad, but that's partially because Ordinary Angels waaaaay over indexed here to a bizarre extent. The average looks ok crosschecking with other trackers tho, so I suppose I'll project out $400K pure THU and a $6-8M OW. And as for Boy Kills World, we now have a new worst selling movie in my market after The Book of Clarence held the crown from the beginning of my tracking dataset. Overall very rough goings, but the two original non EA action comps I have say basically the same thing, sooooo $300K previews and a $3M OW?

I mean, Civil War pretty much did $25M+ opening, not terrible hold, biggest launch for an A24 movie by far, good walkups, probably a $70M+ DOM finish

TWO THEATER MN PRESALES TRACK (T-1/0) 04/18/24 Spy x Family Code: White - 73 tickets sold The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare - 25 tickets sold Abigail - 21 tickets sold COMPS Abigail 1.24x of Imaginary ($896K) 1.62x of The First Omen ($1.17M) AVERAGE: $1.03M The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare 0.54x of The Beekeeper (previews+EA) ($1.30M) 0.20x of Civil War ($580K) 0.53x of Monkey Man ($745K) 0.48x of Argylle ($817K) THURS ONLY AVERAGE MINUS BEEKEEPER: $714K Spy x Family Code: White 0.76x of Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba - To the Hashira Training ($1.37M) AVERAGE: $1.37M Overall looks pretty rough for Ungentlemanly Warfare, didn't even pace well against the inflated Beekeeper comp with EA baked in. Probably an $8-11M OW on that off something like $750K in Thurs alone previews. As for Abigail, I'm thinking that horror just sells poorly in my area, as Imaginary, First Omen, and now this are some of the lowest selling movies I've tracked here. (For reference: Argylle sold more than all 3 aforementioned films combined). Anyways for the horror only comps, looks like about $1M previews and a $10-15M OW as corroborated by other trackers. Spy x Family sold pretty well, but not as great in comparison to the one anime comp I have. Just gonna trust that one and say something like $1.3M previews and a $6-8M OW.

TWO THEATER MN PRESALES TRACK (T-1/0) 04/11/24 Civil War - 126 tickets sold COMPS Civil War 0.35x of Dune: Part Two ($3.20M) 2.42x of Argylle ($4.12M) 2.68x of Monkey Man ($3.75M) AVERAGE: $3.69M Civil War clearly running hot here, managed to clear $3M even against the Dune comp when one of my theaters has a 70mm screen and I used the lower $9.25M figure as the preview number. It sold more tickets here than Ghostbusters and KFP4, but those likely had better T-0s than this will have. Overall, considering all the comps I used had mid-bad walkups and Civil War is having a great last week judging by other trackers, gonna set my prediction at $3.75M Thu +/- $0.6M, and probably an OW of something like $25-30M.

They can just roll these together like what Disney did with Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes to get that sweet 100M views headline except in the case of Joker, more like 4x that lmao

This actually looks like a #1 north of $50M+ on every weekend to me tbh, definitely much more balanced in terms of movie types than the $300M budget tentpole fuckfest that was June of last year One big $400M+ mega blockbuster, 3 solid $150-200M genre grossers, and a few smaller films is a cleaner balance especially considering all these movies have smaller budgets

Blown away at how incredible this looks, the cinematography and production design are actually insane I think the cultural zeitgeist is absolutely back here, gonna absolutely be the most talked about movie of the year bar none Basically everyone is gonna go see it, it’s like if you synthesized the audiences for Barbie and Oppenheimer and CBMs and musicals and everything else in between Highest grossing live-action film of the year on lock

Looks like standard tickets are now on sale for Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes