Relevation

Might be reading it wrong, but Wish is looking really good no? Almost every comp is comfortably above $3M (minus Hilts) and some are getting up into the high $3M range with not terribly slow pace. Seems good for like $3M flat TUE minus EA which off my averaged Encanto+Strange World 25x IM would take it to a frankly phenomenal $50M FSS and $75M 5-day total.

So based on the general drift I’m seeing, we should expect around $6-7M Thurs and a $36-49M OW?

Wish social reactions seem glowing to the point of being fake. Nothing negative in sight, could see a decent bump tomorrow.

I agree but we probably disagree on what’s 1st, 3rd, and 4th

But it probably is opening at or under $40M Like I’m not even trying to pile on it, but Thursday comps are absolutely crashing to $6M Thurs or lower. IM math from there does not get you above $45M. The writing’s on the wall here imo and that final trailer is not moving the needle.

I think a potential X factor here is that Napoleon will probably get a period of actor promo assuming the SAG strike ends soon, a luxury not granted to KotFM Averaging out the 5-day IMs for House of Gucci (16.92x) and Devotion (14.92x) and this is probably looking at a 15.8-16.0x IM off Tuesday Soooooo if this is running even with KOTFM ($2.6M) then imo that is pretty damn good, should be able to get around a $41-42M 5-day with that

Tickets are now on sale for Napoleon

I agree, but I don’t think TMNT doing relatively decent domestic numbers fueled mostly by legs should’ve come as that much of a surprise considering the strength of the talent behind it and the good window between family titles, especially in comparison to Saw X getting an RT score 40 points better than the peak of the franchise and landing its best total in 14 years Also I do think the Animation Penalty is beginning to ware off as time goes on, as I think the adult audience for high-quality animation content has been growing in recent years especially on social media

Remind me again what was the highest grossing superhero movie domestically this year

My guy Mutant Mayhem is only like the third highest grossing TMNT film domestically and fourth highest worldwide (and one of those is from 1990 unadjusted!) also the answer’s Saw

International presales comps look bad enough to where $65M seems pretty hard imo Also not to diss on Charlie but didn’t he call ATSV at $125M+ INT OW and then it did $88M

$45M OS and $35M DOM for an $80M launch seems feasible imo

This is having a Flash-level collapse in it’s final week of sales, literal free fall Probably opening with like $33-36M atp with potential to go lower

Wish will probably have a larger 3-day OW than The Marvels despite Wish opening on a Wednesday

Gonna be so funny when this inevitably gets crossposted to Reddit (and possibly X too)

Was there supposed to be a matrix here orrrrr

Idk how disastrous this Nov will be when there’s only one movie having a terrible presales run right now. HG looks decent fir a $55M+ debut and a $170M+ run, Trolls should get over $25M OW and $100M DOM, Wish looks honestly like it could play for $220M or higher, and I’m personally bullish on the $100M+ chances of Napoleon Frankly this looks fine if you ignore the very real possibility of The Marvels opening in Morbius territory, there’s just no real mega $150M+ opener to pay attention to and rather a broader sprinkling of $30-60M openers that will hopefully have good legs for the most part

Huh, I’m actually of the opposite opinion I think THG is pretty safely going above Marvels OW but I think it’ll be close for Thurs previews. Do you expect THG to have a more frontloaded IM? I think THG will get an 8x IM (FNAF did 7.77x and this will have better reviews + a slightly older audience) and The Marvels with more like a 7x IM, between BPWF’s 6.5x and Eternals’ 7.5x

Genuinely I don’t think that gets it over a $40M OW

I think a good assortment of comps for Hunger Games would be (all from this year) Scream VI (younger female skewing, fan driven, $40-50M opener in the range I expect THG to get in) John Wick 4 (somewhat fan driven action film that isn’t a mega opener and similar age skew) The Little Mermaid (not walkup heavy female skewing blockbuster) The Creator (young-ish skewing action-ish film which I think is tangentially connected to the action genre in a similar way to THG) Oppenheimer (core fanbase being pulled, long film like THG, potentially not great Day 1 comp due to sales window disparities) Don’t think The Marvels works as a comp due to not having a preview figure and also the nature of high MCU day 1 sales figures, and using a Barbie comp I think would set an unrealistic daily pace for THG that I think would just make the comp look unnecessarily bad I think Scream VI is the winner out of the comps I listed but will take feedback

@Porthos HG tickets were moved up to Oct 31 earlier

I fear the super late embargo means they’re just not doing fan screenings at all and are gonna ride this out In which case it’s probably DOA even if an 11th hour end to the SAG strike comes to a futile rescue Opening weekend is fucked (possibly sub-$50M), only hope for it at this point is phenomenal WoM and Elemental style legs which seems a bit far fetched to me

Personally, since it’s pretty much performing ahead of Elemental everywhere right now, I don’t see it coming substantially under that movie’s $2.4M previews even with the low ATP. Maybe setting $2.2M as the lower bound. High bound could go as high as $3.5M imo or even closer to $4M if the super high Orlando numbers can stick. Sticking with a $2.2-3.5M Thurs range and an 5-day IM of 24-28x (low end a bit higher than Strange World and high end a bit higher than Encanto to account for potential siphoning of TUE sales due to EA), and you’ve got yourself a potential range of $53-98M over 5 days. Now obviously that range is broad and a bit unhelpful, so shaving off $15M from both extreme bounds and shifting it back a bit to potentially account for poorer late pace with the SAG strike and early sales jump (+ around like $3M from EA), aaaaaaaand I would peg this at a $43-53M 3-day and $65-80M 5-day.