toutvabien

TIL Jennifer Lee, president of WDAS, director of the Frozen movies and a writer on this one, is married to Alfred Molina...!! Anyway, expecting this to be another building block, adding to the work of Elemental, into making animated Disney stuff back into an event. Imagine how huge Encanto could have been at the box office if it weren't for them conditioning audiences to watch it on Disney+.

I'll do you one better; 100%

Well, yea, I'm aware. Still, kind of a similar situation of changing the title in overseas release. Now, let's no longer go on about this. If this underperforms maybe we can blame 5% of it on the title.

Let's not recycle the subject of title. Many sequels lose their subtitles overseas and replace them with numbers, I don't see this as any different.

More likely than not this and Cap 4 just swap dates.

Damn. We even got to the whole "diverse stuff gets better reviews" discourse in this thread. Which kind of started from me saying that only poor reviews and bad buzz are gonna get this to actually open to as low as some people here are suggesting. Anyways, it's fair to say that Marvel had one too many divsive projects by this point which has weakened the brand momentum a little bit. Phase 3 just had a type of ridiculous momentum which just lead to a type of winning streak that is hard to replicate - even if that Phase has arguably its own misses. But I still think some predictions here are below the absolute floor for this one.

Actually, it was Aquaman. Which is funny, because that has a sequel coming out a little over a month after this film. It did very similarly to Wonder Woman, demo-wise. Black Panther, Ant-Man and the Wasp and Captain Marvel had the best male-female ratio out of the Infinity Saga. Wakanda Forever built on that to the best female showing for a MCU opening (48% female) while Quantumania... not so much (39% female). I wouldn't be surprised to see The Marvels challenge Wakanda here, but we'll see. Black Widow and Eternals were still typically male-leaning.

Critic attitude towards MCU movies has shifted since the release of Captain Marvel. But even then, diversity is a plus but not nearly enough to give anything a pass. Eternals was the first rotten film in the MCU. Now, that had a lot of big swings and ambitions and it failed in the eyes of many. This does seem to have a more streamlined plot.

looks cute!

I really just don't see this opening to $70-80M with good reviews and WoM, I think that's the level where its opening could go if it gets Eternals/Quantumania level reviews or worse. So, if it opens on that range, it's not gonna leg it out like WF. Are you seriously thinking that even if this gets good buzz it's gonna do maximum $80M OW?

If it is to open to just $70-80M, that would require pretty poor WoM, so why would its legs look like Wakanda Forever and not something like Eternals?

The first Black Panther did $523M OS w/o China and Russia. Wakanda Forever was at $389M before its uneventful Chinese release, where it did just $15M. The first Captain Marvel did $527M OS w/o China and Russia. If The Marvels is to release in China, it could do anywhere between Quantumania ($39M) and GOTG 3 ($87M) or anything really at this point. A BP-WF level drop gets this to $275M domestic and about $670M worldwide before China.

Only way this does worse than Quantumania is if it gets Quantumania level response.

Monica was literally in the first film. She did get some boost as a character from WandaVision, obviously not as much as that show's title characters (duh). She was always gonna have a pretty big role in this one. I don't know what impact a name really can have on a film, like it's still a film with Captain Marvel in the main lead role and mostly returning characters (Monica, Fury) and conflicts (the Kree). Kamala's addition shouldn't have any negative or positive impact, business-wise. Comparing it to Birds of Prey, which was the R rated spin-off, meant to capitalize on the perceived love/success of Robbie's Harley Quinn, amongst young women, in the PG-13, really poorly received Suicide Squad is a little goofy.

One thing's for sure; this will do $17.5M previews.

I think that more so translates into "comic book movies didn't need to be great and get amazing word of mouth to be hits, anything could be, just for having the Marvel or DC logo on it". Of course, this would still probably ended up being more of a Shazam-sized sucess, as the DC(EU) brand especially was already bleeding in terms of hype; Wonder Woman and Aquaman were driven by WoM more than anything into the extent of their success.

Looks so good. So does Paul Mescal, damn. What would I give to get into a queer little love story with Paul Mescal.

The alt-right incels now go after Nia DaCosta for... saying white men over at Marvel helped create a healthy environment for her when making the film. Okay... cool...

This is an oversimplified/no cotext version of what she stated in that interview.

We're around the time when full trailers dropped for previous WDAS Thanksgiving releases.

Nearly every shot in this film is a wide lens shot I see... Well, this confirms my theory that Viola Davis makes everything seem more worth watching. Rachel Zegler is very attractive, I can see why incels are scared of her. Excited for Hunter Schafer using the Euphoria fame to get into big Hollywood movies era.

Which were hired to write Kang Dynasty and Secret Wars, respectively. Also, the latter was the showrunner for Loki on its first season.

If it gets good buzz, I feel good about the $100-120M range for The Marvel's opening. From there, it depends on if MCU can get a couple of different well received projects back-to-back, especially on the film side. If DP3 comes out before NWO and is well liked, NWO could open bigger than all the 2023 CBMs. If that's well liked, similar fate for Thunderbolts etc.

On a less doom-y note, I'm confident on this and their 2024 slate not breaking Marvel's current streak of $100M+ openings. If it continues through Thunderbolts, that's gonna be 10 films back to back.

Yea, had to clarify; a poorly received film in their weakest sub-franchise, that is.