toutvabien

I really just don't see this opening to $70-80M with good reviews and WoM, I think that's the level where its opening could go if it gets Eternals/Quantumania level reviews or worse. So, if it opens on that range, it's not gonna leg it out like WF. Are you seriously thinking that even if this gets good buzz it's gonna do maximum $80M OW?

If it is to open to just $70-80M, that would require pretty poor WoM, so why would its legs look like Wakanda Forever and not something like Eternals?

The first Black Panther did $523M OS w/o China and Russia. Wakanda Forever was at $389M before its uneventful Chinese release, where it did just $15M. The first Captain Marvel did $527M OS w/o China and Russia. If The Marvels is to release in China, it could do anywhere between Quantumania ($39M) and GOTG 3 ($87M) or anything really at this point. A BP-WF level drop gets this to $275M domestic and about $670M worldwide before China.

Only way this does worse than Quantumania is if it gets Quantumania level response.

Monica was literally in the first film. She did get some boost as a character from WandaVision, obviously not as much as that show's title characters (duh). She was always gonna have a pretty big role in this one. I don't know what impact a name really can have on a film, like it's still a film with Captain Marvel in the main lead role and mostly returning characters (Monica, Fury) and conflicts (the Kree). Kamala's addition shouldn't have any negative or positive impact, business-wise. Comparing it to Birds of Prey, which was the R rated spin-off, meant to capitalize on the perceived love/success of Robbie's Harley Quinn, amongst young women, in the PG-13, really poorly received Suicide Squad is a little goofy.

One thing's for sure; this will do $17.5M previews.

I think that more so translates into "comic book movies didn't need to be great and get amazing word of mouth to be hits, anything could be, just for having the Marvel or DC logo on it". Of course, this would still probably ended up being more of a Shazam-sized sucess, as the DC(EU) brand especially was already bleeding in terms of hype; Wonder Woman and Aquaman were driven by WoM more than anything into the extent of their success.

Looks so good. So does Paul Mescal, damn. What would I give to get into a queer little love story with Paul Mescal.

The alt-right incels now go after Nia DaCosta for... saying white men over at Marvel helped create a healthy environment for her when making the film. Okay... cool...

This is an oversimplified/no cotext version of what she stated in that interview.

We're around the time when full trailers dropped for previous WDAS Thanksgiving releases.

Nearly every shot in this film is a wide lens shot I see... Well, this confirms my theory that Viola Davis makes everything seem more worth watching. Rachel Zegler is very attractive, I can see why incels are scared of her. Excited for Hunter Schafer using the Euphoria fame to get into big Hollywood movies era.

Which were hired to write Kang Dynasty and Secret Wars, respectively. Also, the latter was the showrunner for Loki on its first season.

If it gets good buzz, I feel good about the $100-120M range for The Marvel's opening. From there, it depends on if MCU can get a couple of different well received projects back-to-back, especially on the film side. If DP3 comes out before NWO and is well liked, NWO could open bigger than all the 2023 CBMs. If that's well liked, similar fate for Thunderbolts etc.

On a less doom-y note, I'm confident on this and their 2024 slate not breaking Marvel's current streak of $100M+ openings. If it continues through Thunderbolts, that's gonna be 10 films back to back.

Yea, had to clarify; a poorly received film in their weakest sub-franchise, that is.

Sky isn't falling, these movies still make a shit ton of money. Every franchise would wish a poorly received film made $200M+ domestically and near $500M worldwide. But yea, Guardians 3 pre-sales, the fact that there was a chance of missing $100M on OW, the fact that it still opened 19% below the second film despite great WoM and 6 years of inflation... shows the brand ain't what it used to be.

For a second there I legit thought 2018 was 7 years ago and that felt scary! But yea, I don't think 3 years is that long either, that's why I said it's not the worst example. But it is noteworthy that in the Infinity Saga, that would be the longest you could go without revisiting a character. Now, because there's more solo franchises and less Avengers-type films, that's no longer possible. I do think all that has an active effect in the momentum of the Saga and the MCU and I do think that's relevant when discussing the landscape during which Captain Marvel opened and the one The Marvels finds itself at. In addition to the fact that the landscape was also drastically different because well, Phase 3, 2019, right in the middle of the culmination of a whole 11 year old saga worth of films. The need to go into a different, Avengers-less direction (which makes some business and a lot of storytelling sense) but also make so many more hours worth of content has made things feel less special.

I don't disagree that sometimes people get overreactionary about these things. But you also trained your audience to expect to be interracting faster with these characters. And even then, Sam and Bucky's 3 years between Falcon and the Winter Soldier and Brave New World and Thunderbolts ain't the worst example. You trained the audience to the characters themselves interracting faster with one another and the events. This is because they chose this structure for the Saga. I don't blame people for not feeling it.

The plan is, thus far, to have two Avengers movies in this saga and the first one is gonna come out in Year 6 (out of 7). In the meantime, several characters that have debuted in the last two years we don't know when we're gonna see them until those Avengers movies. That was never something you could think about in the Infinity Saga because of the proximity in which the characters appeared back then, even outside of the big Avengers cross-overs. Again, this is probably intentional. They wanna explore more corners of the universe and have more of a variety and less Avengers-type films, because they don't wanna risk them feeling less of an event post Endgame, or maybe even because that's the structure they figured worked the best with the story they wanted to tell this time around. I get that whole part. But this approach does make it a little harder to invest and it's not like Marvel ever for me nailed all those different individual corners even back during the Infinity Saga, so, now that it's most of what I get, I'm having some issues.

Nah, it's not about that. It's the fact that Tony, Cap and Thor were nearly in one film per year or at worst every two years since their debuts and even Hulk, Widow, Hawkeye and Fury popped off commonly and the sub-franchises that were also had new installements at a closer proximity. There was also an Avengers movie every once in a while, which helped. Spidey and Black Panther were everywhere the moment they debuted. Wanda and Ultron were popping off nearly every year since their debut in Age of Ultron. Sure, that's harder to achieve if you focus on introducing more characters in solo/focused projects, but still. It's a shift. The argument ain't that they should have used the exact same narrative strucute for the Multiverse Saga, but the one they are using ain't helping.

Well, there are some pleasing rumors about Kate at least. But yea, other than Spidey, I feel like we should have a decent idea by this point on when we're seeing next these characters and the answer shouldn't be "in Kang Dynasty and Secret Wars".

Unless this has like... toxic word of mouth, it's gonna be the biggest DC film since The Batman. Now, what that means, could range anywhere between just $10M over Black Adam to who knows how big. It's not completely out of the question that this becomes the biggest cbm of the year. but for the time being, I expect below Guardians, Spider-Verse and possibly wherever Marvels ends up at.

This is by far imo my biggest gripe with the Multiverse Saga thus far. I loved Shang-Chi! Where the f is he? Why is he not getting a sequel until after Kang Dynasty? Why does that film look like it's gonna be his next appearance? The only characters with multiple appearances throughout those 3 years have been Wanda, Yelena, Wong, Dr. Strange and... Valentina Allegra de Fontaine. And I guess the Guardians had their cameo in Love and Thunder. Sure, with The Marvels, you can add Fury, Kamala and Monica to the list and by next year, Red Guardian, Bucky, Sam, Ross, Taskmaster, Agatha, Echo, maybe Daredevil? And that's largely because next year's Brave New World and Thunderbolts are literally set up to cross-over characters. Wish that was more on Marvel's agenda.

Let's get a couple of things straight: Box Office Pro drops their long range forecasts a month before a film's release. They just dropped one for the Eras Tour. So, that's coming in October, alongside first numbers from industry tracking. That will also be closer to whenever tickets will go on sale for this film. Yea, Captain Marvel became as big as it did because of its timing and position in the MCU, but that's the case for any MCU movie, especially the Avengers ones. One interesting little detail between the two films is that the first one came out at peak Marvel/super hero movie time, literally just before the culmination of the Infinity Saga, on a Phase 3 that was perceived as "great movie after great movie". This sequel is not opening to as great of a build up; waning interest, diminishing returns, divisiveness. Guardians 3 in itself is evidence that in current times, the brand is bleeding - even with great reviews and WoM, it opened 19% below its predecessor and that was seen as an overperformance relative to expectations. Quantumania appears to be somewhat of a floor, but a similarly (or worse) received Marvels could drop that floor on an even lower level. However, even if the reviews and WoM are decent, kinda like the first film, it's gonna do a lot better than Quantumania. And if they are good to great, it could do Guardians numbers or better.