Ziddletwix

Naive question—"Don't Tell Mom the Babysitter's Dead" (2024) released this weekend, and I see some showtimes near me. Why aren't there any numbers for it? Is there just some large delay on reporting any numbers, or do some small distributions just not report any box office results at all?

What makes you say that? (Genuinely asking, haven't followed this at all). EEAAO's domestic split was ~55%. As you say, Civil War will probably end up in its domestic ballpark. I don't know much about its global release plans, but is it clear that it'll have a higher international % than EEAAO did? (I get that 55% is quite high, so that's not a high bar to clear, but this weekend Civil War only opened in a few markets internationally so I'm curious if the data from those looked promising and/or if we know how its plans for global rollout will look). Studio blockbusters usually have much higher international % than that, but that requires an actual strategy for a global rollout, not sure if we know that A24 is ready for that.

Got it! That makes sense. Missed that because sometimes the ranks are stable-ish, so the given rankings seemed plausible for the current day, but it'd fit that they're just starting w/ yesterday's rank. Thanks!

Probably naive question, but a bit new to box office stuff. The-numbers has some of the Thursday results posted: https://thenumbers.com/daily-box-office-chart. There are numbers next to the titles, GxK is (1), Dune is (4), First Omen is (5)—presumably its place at the box office. The KFP4 & Monkey Man numbers aren't posted here yet, and yet it already seems to "know" that Dune will be (4). So if that's accurate, it seems like MM & KFP4 are (2) and (3) (in some order). This is a long way of asking—if the numbers for a movie haven't been posted yet, are those ranks still generally accurate? Like can I deduce that probably Monkey Man & KFP4 are probably higher than $635K, because they must be (2) and (3) on the table? My first assumption would be that they don't have any numbers for KFP4, in which case they can't know if Dune will be (4) or (3) or etc.

Deadline/the-numbers reporting 2.9M for Civil War Thursday. Is that gap (from the 3.5M expected) surprising, or am I missing something?

The-numbers is showing 2.9M for Civil War. Is that a huge shift from the overnight predictions (3.5M). Or is that excluding early action for part of the gap?

No KFP4 numbers yet? can't find any anywhere Edit: NVM they're up now, $614,950. Like everything else, a healthy jump from yesterday. but still a much bigger weekly drop than KFP4 had been having. how likely is a 45%+ drop for the weekend? (its last two weekend drops have been 37% and 25%, way lower)

750k for Monkey Man. Any early guesses for what these mondays mean for next weekend? The drop down from Easter is permanent, but maybe these are further depressed by NCAA finals? (not sure how much I buy that). I was eyeballing both Frozen Empire & Monkey Man near 5M? And probably a severe drop for GxK—50-55%?

A bit surprised by a few of these. If FE is 2.4M Friday, even at 40% weekly drop for Sat/Sun that only gets to 8.5M. Is there reason to expect crazy low weekly drops because of Easter last weekend? Same with KFP4 & its Friday #, $8.9M would be a huge saturday spike.

KFP4 $2.25M Friday Seems pretty solid? With a typical KFP4 weekend split, you could hope for ~7.5M?

Monkey Man - 4.25M GxK - 8.5M

Originally, Dune was much stronger on weekdays, but KFP4 pulled ahead on weekends (because kids are available). Now Dune has won the past two weekends, but KFP4 is ahead on weekdays. What switched? Is that surprising, or is there a clear reason? If KFP4 continues with 40% drops, it'll reach about 180M or so. I think that's a bit less than most projections, so people think it'll be dropping less than that? GxK had ~84% of Dune 2's first Tuesday. Is that a plausible guess for the 2nd weekend? (Which would put GxK at 38-39M 2nd weekend). Or any reason to think that's very off? Frozen Empire actually a fair bit ahead of Afterlife on its 2nd Tuesday, even though it's far behind cumulatively. Looks like it'll be past 100M, but not by too much?

So KFP4 with the weekly increase? I guess more people have Monday off than I realized, and this is best viewed as a holiday? (I assumed Dune would easily be past KFP4 next weekend, now I'm not as sure)

IIUC, Frozen Empire has a bit of a staggered release internationally. Is there a chance it surpasses Afterlife WW? It's been hard to track how it's doing on the shared markets.

The Numbers is showing 13M for Dune. That's a crazy difference from 11.1M. What's happening here? https://thenumbers.com/weekend-box-office-chart

So after barely dropping during the week, it dropped ~50% on the weekend? Bigger gap than I expected, wow

That's a crazy hold for KFP4. Does that update what people are expecting for domestic total? Maybe like ~190M now?

Any early indications of KFP4 & Dune's Friday? I'm guessing KFP4 will be ahead this weekend, but not sure.

I'm a bit confused—when is the review embargo supposed to drop? I had previously seen 6AM March 28th, but apparently the time zone was in Australia, which equated to noon PT on March 27th. And that's what this reddit post (below) lists "(Mar. 27) Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire Review Embargo lifts (noon (12 PM) PST)". But reviews aren't out. Is the embargo actually 6am March 28, but a different time zone?

Does anyone have a rough ballpark range for what we could expect Oppenheimer to gross in Japan? OW & overall? I know it's super uncertain, but what's a remotely plausible comparison (for e.g. ~300 screens).

Only -15% drop for KFP4? Is that expected? (All its recent drops have been so much higher). Should we expect similarly low drops throughout this week & this weekend, or is there some reason this Monday would be an outlier?

Can someone dumb this down for me? (New to this!) Is the claim that the current (Monday morning) studio estimates (45.0M for the weekend) are suspiciously high, given the other numbers we've seen for each day. Thus, when the actuals come out (soon), they'll be lower. Or is the claim that even once the actuals come in, they'll still be suspiciously high? I.e. the underlying accounting itself is what's off, not the current studio estimates? (trying to follow the exchange in this thread)

KFP4's Thursday weekly drop was ~61%, Dune 2's Thursday weekly drop was ~51%. But I'm seeing most predictions expect substantially lower drops for both over the weekend, maybe 40-42% drops compared to last weekend. Is that normal? I.e. on a Thursday you see a much bigger drop from last week than you do on a weekend? (I guess I assumed last Thursday's gross already took that into account). (I guess for KFP4, the idea is last Thursday was spring break, yesterday isn't, so you see a super steep drop, but on weekends that difference isn't as extreme?) Also, probably naive question—why was Dune's Thursday weekly drop so much larger than its drops for the rest of the week? Is it just because it lost screens to Ghostbusters? (I.e. I'm trying to predict if it's likely that there are any more >50% drops next week—seems like it's possible if next Thursday it loses even more screens to GxK?)

I'm new here—will there be a separate weekdays thread? I'm really curious about what to expect for Dune/KFP4's Monday gross (seems like a big bellweather of the holds to expect going forward?)