fishstick

Nice to see Kiwis breaking away from PJ cult. I expected that his excessive in-your-face wealth (it`s one thing to build a Neverland-like mansion in a neighbourhood with similar riches and totally another when you do that where people are normal middle class) and diminishing quality of movies would bite him in the ass at home at some point.

I`d just wait a little longer, until we see Saturday performance, to settle the passion or lack thereof matter. But the thing is, TH book does not have passionate following. It`s a popular book, read by many, but without passionate fanbase like LOTR. Tolkienism really started with LOTR and LOTR is the carrier of Tolkien cult. TH just gets by because it`s a sorta prequel (well, LOTR`s sorta sequel) but it never had the same impact, fandom,etc. Say it ain`t so. If Smaug is the only reason why people would see this an masse, not because they care for main characters, than this is a bad news. Hulk may have been scene stealer but he was not the only reason why people were pumped for TA. I hope you see the difference that Hulk was also one of main characters and Smaug is not. He`s an episode in Bilbo&dwarves quest. If Bilbo&dwarves are not the main reason to stick around than money shot of a talking dragon won`t lift the business. You have to care for characters first to care for whatever menace comes their way.

Ok, so basically she`s spinning NZ record opening into global record or something? It doesn`t compute based on country-by-country numbers reported here from BOfers.

Guys, can someone explain what`s going on? Nikki`s claiming records-breaking while people here doubt passing BD2 internaitonally based on the same numbers. What`s going on?

Here we go again. Estimations are deliberately lowballed because of the shooting. They don`t know how it`ll play out so they use TDKR scenario - high anticipation, tracking at _________ and than boom boom and number free-falls from tracking. So they are simply cautious. But we know that shooting won`t have the same effct hence why this number isn`t real.

Only $82-85 mio estimate takes Aurora scenario. We know this won`t be Aurora but they don`t want to look like underperformers if the movie gets hit by it somewhat.

Yep, that`s what I`m saying. I always subtract midnights from friday anyway especially since most midnights these days are inflated by 10pm which is really Thurday, not Friday.

Yeah, TDKR was a totally different situation. Joker-obsessed loon targetted TDKR audience. This pretty much sent the message that TDKR, not all movies, is dangerous loon magnet. Of course, all movies felt it because when shit like that happens in one cinema people start feeling uneasy about any movie, let alone that one that attacts biggest crowds.The elementary school shooting cannot posisbly have such a wide-spread and long lasting effect on TH boxoffice.Not to mention that unless you are immediate family or friend of family struck by tragedy, you won`t miss Xmas routine because of what happened. Holiday erases those things from the mind quickly.

But they still went up from friday even with Wednesday opening. Friday was not the next biggest day or something. Besides, of course that numbers won`t match entirely since TH opened on Friday. So lets wait for Saturday.

I wouldn`t say no competition in tenpole department because at least Les Mis is advertised as a tentpole and Xmas event. Also, lets not forget that TH was supposed to be Oscar movie too because LOTR ones were. You can`t really convince anyone that you did not have Oscary intention if you keep traditional release date that worked for previous 3.

Neo lives up to his heroic code name. Essence of Galadriel is kindness. Blanchett never captured that because she comes off smug. But maybe mo`cap acted in her place or something. I mena, they digitally place actors heads on stunt double bodies and than actors take full credit, so I wouldn`t be shocked if performences are digitally inhanced too.

Franchises behave like a clock. But prequel to a trilogy is not a usual situation. It could continue franchise pattern or it could start behaving like a new one. It really depands on the overlap with first trilogy`s audience. I`m just insisting on it that TH is likely going to follow LOTR because of weak Friday which was typical for LOTR. LOTR always unmistakably recovered on Saturday. And by recovered I really mean recovered.

Happened 2 times and both times it was original movie not a sequel/prequel. So no sequelitis (aka tendency of later movies to drop harder than the original). We need to see Saturday first before we take "disappointing" $85 mio as the done deal. If it`s following LOTR pattern than Saturday will push it over.

Well, at the moment, "hit" is a debatable word. ;)As for my being a detractor with objectivity, I`m full of shit last two days to tell you the truth. Neo slapped me with a warning so I`m playing nicer and more objective than usual.

It means that those are natural occurances because people watch movies on their phones and tablets now. You have to take market situation into consideration and you can`t view TH as LOTR 4. It`s starts the cyclus all over again so instead of going "why isn`t it beating ROTK?", you view it as the first movie in the new cyclus. Now, I said "unless it begins to stray from the pattern" and that`s something we`ll know when Saturday blows over. If Saturday posts big increase than it`s staying in LOTR pattern. if unexpected decrease occurs than this is a new franchise so to speak.Also, don`t forget that LOTR arrived on the market that was low in geek properties and quality tentpoles for GA and 2 years after TPM which was a massive disappointment. Therefore, it was much easier for fans to embrace it as the next geek and tenpole-friendly GA thing. OTOH, look at geek shit that oversaturates the market now. Not the same situation. TH is no more the savior of geekdom, alternative to SW or whatever LOTR was dubbed in 2001-2003. It`s just one of many franchises.

I love you too. I don`t want boxoffice discussion to suffer because of bias. We are here to sharpen our understanding of boxoffice and prediction power not to flamewar each other. I mena, flamewars are fun but competent discussion is fun and educative.

problem with THG predictions is like with Twilight - most geeks aren`t into YA and don`t want big things to happen so they always underpredict. Every single Twilight movie had comments like "I don`t feel the buzz, doesn`t feel like event, the fad has faded, the franchise has peaked with NM, won`t make more than previous movie" and they were wrong every time.

ENOUGH OF THIS SHIT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Franchises behave like a clock. All of them. LOTR has always been a weak Friday player and strong Saturday one. OK, maybe not in its OW but later yes very much so. Wait and see. Like I said, I`d love to be proved wrong and have TH with low Friday and every other day. But that`s not the franchise pattern unless TH is seriously strayning from LOTR pattern. I`m objective about those things. yes, I hate Shitto and PJ and Ringers but I`m objective about franchise`s boxoffice run.Also, remember $8 mio midnight? Early numbers are always underestimated. Which is why I didn`t get my hopes high that $8 mio was real. I was first to say this is family stuff so midnight doesn`t reflect real audience. And boom, it jumped. Dammit it did. Grrrrr. But you get my point. Get past either bias and just focus on facts, people.

BTW, that bitch LOTR has always been a Saturday movie. Just when I was going "woo-hoo, shit Friday, take that Shitto" the bitch movies made an enormous Saturday jump. TH is also going to be Saturday player though hopefully not as crazy as LOTR. But just so you know that was the patern. So make your predix accordingly.

Oh, Jesus! I`m not rooting for TH like at all. I think PJ should pay for his annoying overratedness and bloat and shit for 5 more decades before redeeming himself. I`m thrilled that his return to ME is slammed by critics who fell out of love with him with a good reason. BUT! Get this into your heads, all of you. This is not a holiday weekend. Office parties are held everywhere. Hell, I just left one because my med made me too drowsy. So they are not at the cinema. Not today. hey, I wish they won`t flock the cinema tomorrow but they will. Sucks but that`s a fact of life. This overlong boring juvenile movie will get the boost when families wake up. That`s how the business works.

OMG, this is the greatest truth ever spoken about this site and incompetency of boxoffice journalism. :wub: :wub:Those overpaid bitches don`t know what the fuck they are doing, saying, counting,etc.

I`m sorry but who are you? I don`t recall ever seeing you on BOF before. I see that you made about 1000 messages none of them that I remember and I bet they are all recent TH-related.

I`m sorry but what? What happened to LOTR movie fandom expending so much so that TH was going to beat TA? Why are 40+ years old Tolkien fans even in conversation?

This TASM all over again. Fanboys post Haters Gonna Hate gifs, swear that their friends who didn`t know anything about LOTR,etc loved TH and didn`t think it was boring at all and so want to see it 100 times so GA buzz is through the roof (although midnight, you know, doesn`t exactly support that but whatever), averige midnight and OS numbers are called amazing and you just wait for holidays if you don`t think this is a proof that the fandom not only remained but grew. OTOH, anti-fanboys, well, you know.

Actually, they assumed huge opening + LOTRish legs. remember the most anticipated since TPM, fandom grew since Shriekapoo, 3D,etc.