Filmovie

Worldwide cume for THE HUNGER GAMES: MOCKINGJAY PART 1 is now $560.5 million. So OS total: 303 M; 49 M made in the last week. CF after 3rd WE was at 336,7M (27M of which came from China). I would say 410M-15 M OS Total and 730-40 WW

Penguins will likely win; Today IS passes 10 M EU and Mp1 passes CF in local currency Remember that here this Monday is Holiday, so we will have big numbers too

2 new entries this week: - DADT: Thur 114 K EU (260 K EU TOT - 325K $) - Magic in the Moonlight 108K EU; last year BJ debuted with 83K EU. Allen is very strong here; since Match Point: -Match Point 10,8M $ -Scoop 5,6M $ -Cassandra's dream 6,9M $ -Vicky Cristina Barcelona 8,1M $ -Whatever Works 7,4M $ -You will meet a tall dark stranger 6,4M $ -Midnight in Paris 11,0M $ -To Rome with love 10,6M $ -Blue Jasmine 5M $ IS passed 12M $ today; Thur made -44% VS LW Mp1 is at 9,6M $; still running above in local currency but on par in $ (compared with CF) Penguins had -26% (85K EU - 107K $) vs Last Thursday; should make 2M $ WE (above 7M $ in tot)

I expect Penguins to make twice as much today, or maybe I hope that.

500 M WW after this Weekend. 315 DOM + 445 OS = 760 WW

Well, actually IS total after Sunday is 125M + 22M (5days) = 147M. Not 162, not even 153

So is that a rule? These aren't early estimates, in 3-4 hours we'll have officials

Why should it?

Meh for Penguins. If it follows ROFG pattern (unlikely) it will make 116-120M Domestic. Bad for HB2. It won't crack 60M Dom. 52-55 is more likely. BH6 will finish at around 210-220M IMHO.

I hadn't lost the hope. It was pretty clear after Wed however. The complete message is this: http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/index.php?/topic/16959-friday-numbersmj1-244m-penguins-104m-bh6-775/?p=1795242

If Mp1 makes 84 M during 5D Thanksgiving it means it GOTG has won the year. NM 5D Thnkgv: 66,2M; Tot after Thnksgv: 230,9M; Tot Dom: 296,6M; Money made after Thnksg= 65,7M DH1 5D Thnkgv: 75,0M; Tot after Thnksgv: 219,1M; Tot Dom: 296,0M; Money made after Thnksg= 76,9M BD1 5D Thnksgv: 61,9M; Tot after Thnksgv: 220,8M; Tot Dom: 281,3M; Money made after Thnksg=60,5M BD2 5D Thnksgv: 64,4M; Tot after Thnksgv: 227,4M; Tom Dom: 292,3M; Money made after Thnksg=64,9M CF 5D Thnksgv: 109,9M; Tot after Thnksgv:296,3M; Tot Dom: 424,7M; Money made after Thnksg=128,4M (*1,16 5DThnkg) Mp1 5D Thnksgv: 84M (est.); Tot after Thnksgv: 227M (est); Tot Dom= 227+84*1=311M or Tot Dom=227+84*1,16=324M. Mp1 311-324 range. I'll go with 315-320M

If Mp1 makes 84 M during 5D Thanksgiving it means it GOTG has won the year.

From Deadline 1). The Hunger Games (LGF), 4,151 theaters (0) / $24.4M Fri. (-56% from first Friday)/ 3-day cume: $58.4M (-52%) / 5-day cume: $84M / Total cume: $227M/ Wk 2 2). The Penguins Of Madagascar (FOX), 3,764 theaters / $10.4M Fri. / 3-day cume: $26.2M/ 5-day cume: $36.4-$38M / Wk 1 3). Big Hero 6 (DIS), 3,365 theaters (-285) / $7.75M Fri. / 3-day cume: $19.5M/ 5-day cume: $26.7M/ Total cume: $167.9M /Wk 4 4). Interstellar (PAR), 3,066 theaters (-349) / $6.7M Fri. / 3-day cume: $16.1M / 5-day cume: $22.3M/ Total cume: $162.4M / Wk 4 5). Horrible Bosses 2 (WB), 3,375 theaters / $6M Fri. / 3-day cume: $15.3M/ 5-day cume: $22-23M / Wk 1 (includes Tuesday night previews) 6). Dumb and Dumber To (UNI), 3,130 theaters (-58) / $3.4M Fri./3-day cume: $8.4M / 5-day cume: $11.7M/ Total cume: $72.3M /Wk 3 7). The Theory Of Everything (FOC), 802 theaters (+662) / $1.8M Fri. / 3-day cume: $4.6M / 5-day cume: $5.9M/ Total cume: $9.1M / Wk 4 8). Gone Girl (FOX), 1,174 theaters (-435) / $985K Fri. / 3-day cume: $2.5M/ 5-day cume: $3.3M/ Total cume: $160.8M / Wk 9 9). Beyond the Lights (REL), 1,187 theaters (-579)/ $790K Fri. / 3-day cume: $1.9M / 5-day cume: $2.4M / Total cume: $13.1M /Wk 3 10). Birdman (FSL), 710 theaters (-152) / 704K Fri. /3-day cume: $1.8M/ 5-day cume: $2.4M / Total cume: $17.2M /Wk 7

Next time I won't use the spoiler tag

Fri Mp1 304K EU (380K$) Fri CF 255K EU (350k$) Penguins did 237K EU (296K$). Today they will be likely first.

Well, in local currency CF made 156k during the 2nd Thur (while Mp1 has made 186k). In $ CF made 215K $ during 2nd Thur so the 235k$ of Mp1 is almost 10% stronger! Penguins will recover during Sat and Sun: 3mln EU (3,75M$) OW isn't impossible (so 4mln EU or 5M$ including last week previews). IS will be at 11.4-6 after this WE, 13M could be a stretch.

I am skeptical. I've seen a trailer in cinema and it hasn't had a good reception by the audience; so it would say 5-7 mln at most. But I could be wrong, honestly I never thought it could have been a success.

I think you're a little optimistic about the chances of some. I think only 3 movies have a real shot at 15-16 mln EU (20M$): Hobbit, Penguins and Ricco, Povero e il Maggiordomo. Christmas 2012 (all in EU) - Hobbit 16,4 mln - Colpi di fulmine 10,0 mln (Local film) - I due soliti idioti 8,7 mln (Local film) - Tutto tutto, niente niente 8,6 mln (Local film) - Life of Pi 8,4 mln - Wreck it Ralph 6,7 mln. Christmas 2013 (all in EU) - Frozen 19,4 mln - Hobbit 2 12,8 mln - Colpi di fortuna 11,0 mln (Local film) - Un fantastico via vai 9,1 mln (Local film) - Indovina chi viene a Natale 7,4 mln (Local film) - Walter Mitty 6,0 mln Excluding italian phenomenons like Zalone and Benvenuti al Nord, the last italian comedies to cross 15 mln EU were released in January 2011 and the last italian comedy released during Christmas to cross 15 mln EU was released in Dec. 2010. Only "Il ricco, il povero e il maggiordomo" has a real chance (the main actors have an impressive track record: their movies made 17 mln in 1997, 23 mln in 1998, 29 mln in 2000, 23 mln in 2002, 16 mln in 2004, 13 mln in 2008, 22 mln in 2010. All datas are in euros). Others local titles will all stay in the 6-12 Mln EU range. Gone Girl will do well but crossing 8-10 mln EU would be really a very big success. IMHO BH6 will perform more similar to WIR than Frozen. It's improbable for DADT to make 15M EU, very very improbable. More than 8 would already be fantastic. I hope I am wrong and you're right BTW

Best OW since Oct 2012 (since when movies open on Thur), datas in Euro. Sole a Catinelle 18,61 mln Breaking Dawn – Parte 2 8.28 mln Iron Man 3 6.94 mln The Hangover 3 6.12 mln Fast and furious 6 5.72 mln Skyfall 5.49 mln Despicable me 2 5.16 mln Maleficient 4,31 mln Hunger Games – Mockingjay parte 1 4,28 mln Lo Hobbit – An unexpected journey 4.28 mln Sotto una buona stella 4,25 mln Il principe abusivo 4.20 mln The Amazing Spider-Man 2 3,96 mln Un boss in Salotto 3,94 mln The Wolf of Wall Street 3,81 mln Hunger Games : Catching Fire 3,71 mln Thor 2: The Dark World 3.66 mln Lo Hobbit – The Desolation of Smaug 3,62 mln Django Unchained 3.45 mln The Croods 3.00 mln CF 5days 4,36 mln EU ; MJp1 4days 4,28 mln EU. IS -50% vs LW. It has made 1,55 mln $ and its total is 10,3$M! 13$M here we go! Penguins made 1,3$M in 2 days. We will see next week what does it mean.

CF had 5Days, Mp1 has only 4. In local currency Mp1 is on par with CF (despite having 1 day less than it)

Yes. In local currency is going to make in 4days what CF made in 5. Damn exchange rate!

Mp1 has made 800K EU on Fri (1$M) and it has made 1,47M EU (1,9$M) in 2 days. CF instead made 600K EU on Fri (but it was its 3rd day) and 1,64M EU in 3 days. Mp1 is going to make 4M EU (5$M) in its OW IS still -42% Vs LW

Do not panic. Last year when we had CF OD we all thought it would have fallen behing THG'OW; than it didn't happen (thanks to an unexpected Sat). Than, after OW, we thought that CF wouldn't beat THG DOM total. It had a monstrous 5day Thanksgiving and again avoided its fate. I still believe in the Mockingjay! 350 M is still in play!

I would expect at least OW and Thanksgiving datas before speaking of disappointment. Last Year CF had a disappointing Friday, a great Saturday and a great 5-days Thanksgiving; we'll se. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2: $43.5 million (47.7 percent) The Dark Knight Rises: $30.6 million (40.4 percent) The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 2 30.4 mln The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 1: $30.25 million (42.2 percent) The Twiilght Saga: Eclipse: $30.1 million (43.9 percent) The Twilight Saga: New Moon: $26.27 million (36.1 percent) The Hunger Games – Catching Fire $25.26 million Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1: $24 million (38.9 percent) Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince: $22.8 million (39.2 percent) The Hunger Games: $19.735 million (29.3 percent) Marvel's The Avengers: $18.7 million (23.1 percent) The Dark Knight: $18.5 million (27.5 percent) The Hunger Games: Mockingjay part 1 $17 mln Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith: $16.9 million (33.8 percent) Transformers : Revenge of the Fallen: $16.8 million (27.1 percent) Iron Man 3 15.6 mln Transformers : Dark of the Moon: $13,5 million The Hobbit – Un unexpected journey 13 mln Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix: $12 million (27.1 percent) Guardians of The Galaxy 11.2 mln The Hangover Part II: $10.4 million (32.9 percent) Captain America 2 10.2 mln Spider-Man 3: $10 million (16.7 percent) Godzilla 9.3 mln Man of Steel 9 mln Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest: $9 million (16.1 percent) The Hobbit – The desolation of Smaug 8.8 mln Transformers 8.8 mln Transformers: Age of Extinction 8,75 mln The Amazing Spider-Man 2 8.7 mln

Since Madagascar trilogy was a monster hit in Italy (it has an average of 30$M: yes, more that TLOFTR, HP, POTC, SHREK, ICE AGE), I expect Penguins to be a good success here. On Sat 22 and on Sun 23 there are "national premiere": it opens in 350screens (a good number here) and than it opens wide on Nov 27.