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JJ-8

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Everything posted by JJ-8

  1. JJ-8
    Mine isn't great either.... 1) Avengers: Age of Ultron - 622.3m Way over on this one... lol 2) Jurassic World - 304.9m Way under ... yep.. can i swap 1 & 2 3) Inside Out - 304.8m fairly happy with this one... so far 4) Ant-Man - 262.4m 5) Minions - 254.3m 6) Tomorrowland - 192.1m hahahahahaha... WTF was i thinking. 7) San Andreas - 164.1m Pretty happy with this prediction, a little high maybe, but happy 8) Ted 2 - 160.2m yeah this is gonna be high... urg 9) Terminator: Genisys - 141.0m 10) Fantastic Four - 133.6m 11) Mad Max: Fury Road - 129.8m i'm under but not too horrible in my mind 12) Pixels - 118.5m 13) Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation - 109.8m 14) Pitch Perfect 2 - 81.4m just glad i put in the top 15... .lol 15) Spy - 73.3m going under here.. but not as bad as it could be and i think it may yet sneak into the top 15.
  2. JJ-8
    Avatar came very close to Titanic's attendance (which isn't even the biggest anyway). also that similar to how titanic was the biggest film in Australia for 12 years 1997 - 2009. Still the second biggest some 6 years later.... it's been a hard road to climb to get over that mountain and even now, we are still shakey if a film can open big enough and hold on and make it past that number. still a big yardstick and 50m is yet to become the new 40m. sheesh even 40m is a struggle .. look at the last few years. Before FF7, the last film to cross 40m in australia was TH AUJ back in 2012.
  3. JJ-8
    JW should be #1 probably 3 to 5 days later of 2015... At the moment it's running about 118% of Shrek 2's weekly total (was fairly consistent with it's opening weekend too). If can keep on running @ 118% of shrek 2 from here on out, then JW should be passing 59m (making 60m well within range at this point). So on that, 50m looks to be a given at this point, with #3 all time all but locked. is a good shot @ #2 (if we take out the re-releases of titanic like most of the sites do for australian box office). #1 is still a long way off at this point lol... I just don't see anythign coming close to Avatar anytime soon. it's almost embarrassing how far out in front of everything else that film is.
  4. JJ-8
    Are there any locations which will get Atmos in Brisbane / Queensland ? At the moment I wasn't aware of any. About the best we have in brisbane for cinemas is: vmax or gold class (through event) max screen in cineplex southbank is the biggest screen in queensland (old imax theatre) thats about the end of it though...
  5. JJ-8
    Week 9: 1) Will JW stay number one? NO 2) Will Ted open to more than 60 mill? YES 3) Will Max open to more than 10 mill? YES 4) Will Inside out finish in one of the top two spots? NO 5) Will JWs Sunday drop from Father's Day Sunday be more than 50%? YES 6) Will Inside Out make more than Ted on Saturday? YES 7) Will Spy drop more than 29%? YES 8) Will JW's WW gross be more than 1.2 billion dollars? YES 9) Will Ted have Thursday previews of more than 3.5 mill? YES 10) Will Tele still hate JW after this weekend? IF I WAS TELE I WOULD ANSWER THIS AS NO AND BAULK EVERYONE! LOL MY ANSWER IS YES. 11) Will Avengers drop more than 52%? YES 12) Will any film drop less than 20% for the weekend, that is playing in the top 12 and in more than 700 theaters. NO 13) Will any film increase more than 75% on Friday? YES 11/13 3000 12/13 5000 13/13 7000 What finishes in spots: 1 TED 2 2 JURASSIC WORLD 3 INSIDE OUT 4 MAX 5 SPY 2000 each correct spot and 5000 bonus for all five right Bonus 1: What does JW and TED combine to gross this weekend? 5000 116.403m Bonus 2: What does IO and Spy combine to gross this weekend? 5000 58.599m Good luck!
  6. JJ-8
    ah those were the days... I can remember posting weekly reviews on it's how it progressed back in the australia box office... it was even more crazy here than the US to be honest. for example in australia, Avatanic... pushed all the way to 115m in AUD. That at the time was a mere 5 to 10m short of the adjusted total of Titanic (taking 3D into account). Using the normal conversion rule this is equilalent of a film making 1.1B at the US domestic box office! You think it will take a while for a film to pass the US #1 record of only 750m. At least you will have 2 films > 600m other than avatar. so it's not completely out of reach ... In australia our top 5 looks like as follows: 1. Avatar 115m 2. Titanic 57m (63m if you include the re-release) 3. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 - 53m 4. The Avengers - 52m 5. Shrek 2 - 50m
  7. JJ-8
    or they can do what IMAX did in brisbane shut the thing down..... I'd go see some of these films in IMAX if we had a screen of that size in brisbane!
  8. JJ-8
    As it stands the best comparison is Shrek 2 here. Avengers is not a good comparison as while the drop is similar, in reality it's really dropping from a much larger weekend (19m 5 day). So using Shrek 2 as the comparison - JW can reach 58m to 59m without much trouble. I think 60m is possible based upon this, but we shall see how the holidays treat JW.. if it's more family than adult then 60m is happening.
  9. JJ-8
    Given JW is going to figure in the all time top 5 films in Australia.. i think it's time for a showdown! here we go Wk Titanic Shrek 2 Avatar Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 The Avengers Jurassic World Released 18-Dec-97 17-Jun-04 17-Dec-09 13-Jul-11 25-Apr-12 11-Jun-15 1: 3.2m/3.2m 13.2m/13.6m 12.0m/12.9m 18.4m/25.5m 13.3m/19.3m 16.1m/16.1m Screens/Ave 222 / 14,304 437 / 30,114 588 / 20,344 754 / 24,362 621 / 21,398 605/26,552 2: 3.5m/8.1m 8.5m/25.3m 8.7m/29.0m 8.0m/38.7m 8.2m/31.1m 9.9m/30.2m % Drop 9% -35% -27% -56% -38% -39% 3: 3.6m/13.9m 5.3m/34.6m 9.7m/48.4m 3.8m/44.5m 5.2m/39.0m 4: 2.6m/18.4m 4.3m/42.3m 8.3m/63.2m 2.3m/47.8m 3.5m/43.9m 5: 2.1m/21.9m 2.1m/46.2m 7.0m/75.3m 1.3m/49.7m 2.3m/47.0m 6: 2.5m/25.8m 1.0m/47.9m 5.6m/84.8m 757k/50.8m 1.8m/49.3m 7: 1.8m/28.9m 662k/48.9m 4.6m/92.7m 445k/51.5m 1.3m/51.0m 8: 1.8m/31.4m 364k/49.5m 3.9m/98.4m 279k/51.9m 608k/52.3m 9: 1.8m/33.9m 220k/49.8m 2.9m/102.6m 176k/52.1m 307k/52.8m 10: 1.6m/36.1m 135k/50.0m 1.9m/105.4m 92k/52.4m 162k/53.1m TOTAL: 57.6m 50.4m 115.6m 52.6m 53.3m 30.2m Projected 60m
  10. JJ-8
    So what's everything thinking for the coming weekend. We have the big 3 at the moment. JW ; minions and inside out. Ted 2 is also opening. Ted opened to 8m after 4m of previews the weekend before. Considering that film went onto 34m in 2012, no reason to think that goodwill from that film won't be bad at all. Minions and inside out... The best comparison I remember is DM2 vs MU from 2013. Both animated films dipped 12% from similar openings. JW is the wildcard here though. After the weekend drop we just saw and coming into holidays I would say it should only dip at most 20% but I'm just not sure with Ted 2 opening. All comes down to whether JW is playing to families or adults more. Here's my ranges first: JW - 6m to 8m Minions - 3.5m to 5.5m Inside out - 3m to 4m Ted 2 - 4m to 10m (yeah I know it's a huge range but I'm struggling to read this one) Predicted top 5 1. JW - 7.1m 2. Ted 2 - 7m (new) 3. Minions - 4.6m 4. Inside Out - 3.3m 5. Love & Mercy - 1.1m (new)
  11. JJ-8
    Is there anywhere where this isn't doing amazing numbers. 400m in 10d is just insane. Gonna be a long time before that's broken i think. Matched yes. But broken..... As for the AU number. It's a even crazier considering it opened to only to the 3rd biggest all time. To hold to less than 40% dip from that without any boost a holiday or FD is just insane. Given its holidays from next weekend u'd think its in for even better holds. Wow
  12. JJ-8
    Actually school holidays are still 1 week away for 95% of the country so this hold wasn't helped by that.
  13. JJ-8
    Pretty sure it's avatar with 8.7m still. And that was over Christmas. Shame it didn't tick over 10m..... A stunning number though.
  14. JJ-8
    JW update. 23.5m USD total. That's > 30m AUD. that should mean > 10m 2nd we sweet. EDIT - not ow lol.
  15. JJ-8
    bah.. give me Minions... i want minions...
  16. JJ-8
    ok huge and all in .. in the one post.... your dangerous (ok enough derailment )
  17. JJ-8
    This question:
  18. JJ-8
    It really does put into context how special this weekend we are seeing right now... to pull a around 10m second weekend without holidays supporting it is just jawdropping... and the fact that 2 animated films are combining for 10m+ against it makes it even more amazing. The current holder (avatar) managed it's 9.8m or so 2nd weekend during the christmas weekend and yes it had competition but it's fricking christmas... you expect films to make that kind of moolah at that time of year... but 1 week out from holidays starting... ummmm (I admit i suspect that many uni students are off already though but the impact should be minimal)
  19. JJ-8
    School Holidays around the country: NSW - 27th June to 12th July Vic - 27th June to 12th July Queensland - 27th to 12th July South Australia - 4th to 19th July ACT - 4th to 19th July Tasmania - 4th to 19th July West Australia - 4th to 19th July Northern Territory - 20th June to 19th July As you can see not much till next sat on holidays... so this makes this weekend all the more impressive.
  20. JJ-8
    the scary part is we are heading into a winter holidays here about a weeks time... typically most movies either are flat or increase slightly weekend to weekend over the next 3 weekends. Not saying that JW will stay flat for 3 weeks @ 10m but no reason to believe it won't make 7m - 9m next weekend.. even with the competition. 60m is a real shot (and it's gonna fuck up the 1 question i shoudl be getting right in BSG - will any film make more than 51.5m in Australia..... or least it's going to give it a red hot go)
  21. JJ-8
    Studios in Australia don't seem to have an issue opening films which canabolise each other. It's a bigger issue this weekend due to JW. to me the big loser is IO but we'll see what holds up in the long run.
  22. JJ-8
    Those vmax must be down south because I've seen no vmax for other than JW in QLD.
  23. JJ-8
    To give you an idea how massive JW is, minions and inside out both opening this weekend and while they r supposed to playing in premium cinemas such as vmax, gold class in Qld, neither film is (well they do get an occasional gold class ) JW has continued to suck up those sessions and I feel both of the animated films aren't playing on as many screens as normal thanks to JW. Not only have they opened together limiting each other but a 3rd film is just dominating over the top. Without the competition, I'd say IO prob opens closer to 6m and minions 8 to 9m. But i guess no one saw JW dominating like it is.
  24. JJ-8
    Studios have always tended to open animations 1 week before the main holidays of late. It used to be staggered here before this. I think this makes sure all holidays are covered by the opening.
  25. JJ-8
    Considering avatar was fueled by Christmas and we haven't even reached holidays here. What the fuck? A nearly 10m 2nd weekend is just ...... Wow I gotta ask with holidays only a week away. Is 60m possible? JW will be over 30m by Monday. After a 10m weekend another 20m should happen making 50m likely. Bringing my question can JW reach 60m and 2nd all time here?
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