TylerDurden365

1) Will ASM make more than 5 mill at midnight? Yes 2) Will ASM make more than 7.5 mill at midnight? Yes 3) Will ASM make more than 10 mill at midnight? No 4) Will ASM have an opening day of more than Magic Mike? Yes 5) Will ASM have a WW total of more than 400 mill by Sunday estimates? Yes 6) Will ASM gross more than 23 mill in the UK by Sunday estimates? No 7) Will ASM increase on The 4th? No 8) Will ASM increase by more than 5% on the 4th? No 9) Will ASM decrease by more than 5% on the 4th? Yes 10) Will ASM decrease by more than 25% on the 5th (Thursday)? No 11) Will ASM gross more than 75 million after Thursday actuals? No 12) Will MM increase on Tuesday? Yes 13) Will Ted increase on Tuesday? Yes 14) Will any of last weekends openers (Ted, MM, Madea, PLU) drop less than 12.5% on Wednesday? Yes 15) Will any film in the top 12 on Thursday, fall less than 10%? Yes 16) Will any film in the top 12 on Wednesday increase more than 35%? Yes 17) Will Avengers make at least 900K on any of the three days (M-T-W)? Yes 18) Will Moonrise Kingdom be in the top 10 on Wednesday? Yes 14/18 5000 15/18 6000 16/18 7000 17/18 8,000 18/18 10,000 Bonus 1: What will the combined gross be for TED, MM and Madea be on Wed? 15.623 Bonus 2: What will Avengers, MIB and Prom total gross be for Tuesday? 3.765 Bonus 3: On Tuesday, what finishes in spots: 4 Magic Mike 6 Madagascar 3 7 Abe Lincoln 9 Moonrise Kingdom 13 MIB3 2000 each 7000 bonus for all 5 correct.

SOTM 7:More than 7 million

My kingdom for some real numbers to put this discussion back on track.

Assuming you lose about a quarter of the audience from SM3, that would still land ASM around 250M. I'd say that's a fair target, and with good WOM that number could easily end up around 300M.

1) What film will finish first this weekend? Brave 2) Will Tyler Perry make more than 25.445 mill? Yes 3) Will Magic Mike have an opening day of more than 8 million? Yes 4) Will Ted have a Saturday increase of more than 6%? Yes 5) Will People Like Us make more than 10 mill this weekend? No 6) Of the four openers, which has the best theater average? Madea 7) Will Brave drop less than 45%? Yes 8) Will Mad3 drop less than 40%? Yes 9) Will Abe Lincoln have a Saturday increase of more than 20%? Yes 10) Will The Avengers make more than 4.5 mill? Yes 11) Will Ted fall less than 17% on Sunday? No 12) Will MIB make more than either ROA or TMB? No 10/12 3000 11/12 5000 12/12 7000 Bonus 1: What will the cume of the four openers be? 93.345 Bonus 2: What will the cume of the four openers Saturday be? 36.479 What finishes in spots: 2 Magic Mike 3 Ted 6 Abe Lincoln 12 Avengers 15 Seeking a Friend

So close to the top 10. Going to enjoy it while I can because my top 11 is going to kill my score I have a feeling.

SOTM6: 40 million: Best Exotic Marigold Hotel 50 million: That's My Boy 60 million: Rock of Ages

Possible. Have to see what the weekly drops and next weekend end up looking like. I'd say the safe bet right now is multiplier like WallE around 3.5, but it could end up higher.

CG toons just aren't event films in and of themselves anymore. New Pixar films are because they have a brand recognition, but even that doesn't quite even up with how novel CG animation was when it first came out.

See my edit. I admit that I missed the opening dates when considering that originally. Poor job on my part.

I honestly think Brave is going to see a decent bump today (like 15-20) more in line with what Up and Nemo did. WallE never resonated with family audiences in the way that those films did. But I admit that it could be more in line with Rat and WallE. Just think this has more of a family audience while those played more to the older animation fans.EDIT: And now I have to recind that because you are all right, the movement towards June makes it less likely to happen. Still, it should manage to get to 70+.

Finally. Didn't think I could wait until like 3 PST or anything for numbers. Oh wait, those aren't actual numbers. Silly Nikki.

1) Will Seeking a Friend have a Saturday increase of more than 7.5%? Yes 2) Will Seeking a Friend have an opening weekend of more than 6.95 mill? Yes 3) Will any film playing in more than 1000 theaters have a weekend drop of less than 30%? Yes 4) Will Brave open to more than 64.5 mill? Yes 5) Will Brave decrease on Saturday? No 6) Will ROA make at least a million more than That's My Boy? Yes 7) Will Seeking a Friend make more than both ROA and TMB? No 8) Will Abe Lincoln Vampire Hunter open to more than 10 mill? Yes 9) Will Abe Lincoln Vampire Hunter open to more than 14.5 mill? Yes 10) Will Brave's Sunday be bigger than be Lincoln Vampire Hunter and Seeking a Friend's 3 day total combined? No 11) Will The Avengers have a Friday increase of more than 55%? Yes 12) Will Prometheus drop less than 43%? No 13) Will Moonrise make at least 300K more than Marigold? Yes 14) Will film finishes higher? Battleship, Expecting or Dictator? Battleship 15) Will Madagascar fall less than 46.7%? No 11/15 3000 12/15 5000 13/15 6000 14/15 7000 15/15 10,000 Bonus 1: What will the combined gross be of Brave, Abe Lincoln and Madagascar3? 95.256 Bonus 2: What will Prometheus WW total be after Sunday estimates? 260.521 Bonus 2.5: What will Madagascar's Thursday gross be? 4.295 Bonus 3: What finishes is slots: 7 Seeking a Friend 9 The Avengers 13 What to Expect 15 The Hunger Games 2000 for each one right 5000 bonus if all 4 correct Bonus 4: ***Internationally*** what finishes in slots: 3 Prometheus 4 Snow White 6 MIB3

1) Will Moonrise Kingdom stay in the top 10? Yes 2) Will The Intouchables increase? No 3) Will Chernobyl Diaries drop less than 60%? No 4) Will The Hunger Games increase more than 40% on Saturday? Yes 5) Will Battleship decrease by less than 50%? No 6) Will MIB3 finish within at least 7 mill of SWATH? Yes 7) Will The Avengers have a Friday increase of more than 60%? Yes 8) Will Rock of Ages make more than 26.5 mill? Yes 9) Will That's My Boy make more than 32.5 mill? No 10) Will Rock of Ages and TMB combine to make more than 60 mill? No 11) Will That's My Boy decrease by less than 8% on Sunday? No 12) Will Prometheus decrease by more than 25% on Sunday? No Bonus 1: What will Avengers WW total be after the Sunday estimates come out? 1.417 Bonus 2: What will MAD3's WW total be after the Sunday estimates come out? 265.465 Bonus 3: What films finish is spots: 5 Snow White 9 Moonrise Kingdom 11 The Dictator 14 The Hunger Games

SOTM 5 Abstain

I'd say That's My Boy breaks out slightly this weekend, just because there's demand for a raunchy R-rated comedy that The Dictator really didn't manage to meet. However, its legs will be cut out by the eventual arrival of Ted, which looks to be the funnier film at least by the trailers. Never know though.

1) Will Prometheus open to more than 60 mill? No 2) Will Madagascar open to more than 44 mill? Yes 3) Will Madagascar have a Saturday increase of more than 20%? Yes 4) Will Prometheus make more than 1.5 mill at midnight? No 5) Will SWATH fall less than 46%? No 6) Will MIB3 have a Friday bump of more than 90%?No 7) Will Bel Ami have a theater average of more than $4000.00? No 8) Will Peace Love and Misunderstanding gross more than $60,000? No 9) Will The Avengers fall less than 42%? Yes 10) Will SWATH have one the two best Saturday increases? No 11) Will Marigold Hotel have the best drop? No 12) Out of the films that cost at least 150 million, which will have the best Sunday drop? Avengers 10/12 3000 11/12 4000 12/12 7000 Bonus 1: What will be the combined weekend total of Prometheus and Madagascar? 95.556 Bonus 2: What will be the combined total of all 3D films? 128.125 Bonus 3: What will THG's total be after this weekend? 400.238 Bonus 4: What finishes in slots: 6 Marigold Hotel 7 Battleship 9 What to Expect 12 Moonrise Kingdom

SOTM 4 By July 1sts actuals, will these films surpass these totals? A) Moonrise Kingdom: 10 mill Abstain B ) Chernobyl Diaries: 20 mill No C) Best Exotic Marigold Hotel: 25 mill Yes D) Hunger Games: 401 mill Yes E) Dictator: 53 mill Yes F) Intouchables: 600K Yes

1) Will Snow White open to more than 40 million? Yes 2) Will Piranha 3DD open to more 2.5 mill? No 3) Will Greater Glory have a per theater average of more than $4500? No 4) Will Battlefield America make more than 500K? No 5) Will Piranha have a Saturday drop of more than 20%? Yes 6) Will Snow White have a Saturday increase of more than 10%? Yes 7) Will The Avengers drop more than 49%? No 8) Will MIB3 drop more than 55%? Yes 9) Will any film in the top 10 have a Sunday drop of less than 40% from it's previous Sunday? No 10) Will Snow White make at least 15 mill more than MIB3? Yes 11) Will any film have a Friday increase of less than 30%? No 12) Will Chernobyl Diaries make at least 1 million more than Piranha 3DD Yes 13) Will Best Exotic Marigold finish in the top 10? Yes Bonus 1) What will the Avengers WW total be after estimates on Sunday? 1.361B Bonus 2) What will The Hunger Games domestic total be after Monday actuals? 398.425 Bonus 3) What films finish in slots: 4 Battleship 6 Marigold Hotel 7 Dark Shadows 11 The Hunger Games

Ugh. Just ugh.

1) Will Men Black make more than 5 mill from midnights? No 2) Will MIB have an opening day of more than 25 mill? Yes 3) Will MIB make at least 35 mill more than The Avengers does? Yes 4) Will MIB double the gross of Avengers? Yes 5) Will any film increase on Sunday? Yes 6) Will any film increase by more than 55% on Saturday? Yes 7) Will MIB have an opening 3 day weekend of more than 150 mill WW? Only Sunday estimates will count. Yes 8) Will MIB's worst grossing day of the 4 day weekend be higher than Chernobyl Diaries 4 day total? Yes 9) Will Chernobyl Diaries gross more than Battleship and Dictator combined? No 10) Will Dark Shadows drop less than 20% (so this means, will DS's 4 day drop be less than 20% compared to it's previous weekends 3 day number)? Yes 11) Will Best Exotic Marigold Hotel have an increase (same scenario as number 10...4 day to 3 day)? Yes 12) Will What to Expect When You're Expecting have a Saturday increase of more than 45%? Yes 13) Will The Avengers best day be within 10 mill of MIB's worst day? Yes Bonus 1: What will MIB3 gross for the 4 day? 90.534 Bonus 2: What will the combined 4 day gross of Dark Shadows, Battleship and THG be? 30.516 Bonus 3: What will be the best combined increase for Fri and Saturday, % wise. 230 What films finish in slots: 4 Marigold Hotel 5 Chernobyl Diaries 6 Dark Shadows 10 The Lucky One

Still hanging around the top 5. Though that will change I'm certain once the top 12 start to kick in. Damn you Dark Shadows and Battleship.

1) Will Battleship open to more than 47 mill? No 2) Will What to Expect open to more than 20 mill? No 3) Will The Dictator open to more than 30 mill for the 5 day? No 4) Will The Dictator's two day (wed-Thurs) gross be more than 10 mill? No 5) Will the combined gross of The Dictator (5 day) and What To Expect (3 day) be more than the Avengers (3 day)? No 6) Will any film have a Saturday increase of more than 60%? Yes 7) Will any film have a Sunday drop of less than 24%? No 8) Will The Avengers drop more than 45%? No 9) Will The Avengers weekend gross be more than the combined gross of films in places 3-10? No 10) Will The Avengers total gross be more than 450 mill? Yes 11) Will What to Expect and Battleship both have increases on Saturday? Yes 12) Will THG make at least 500k more than The Lucky One? Yes 13) Will Safe House have an increase this weekend? No 14) Will The Raven make more than Safe? Yes 15) Will Think Like a Man fall less than 30%? No Bonus 1: To three decimal points, what will The Avengers % drop be this weekend? 43.576 Bonus 2: What will the top five cume be for the weekend (only 3 day counts) 135.231 Bonus 3: What finishes in spots: 3 The Dictator 4 What to Expect 9 The Lucky One 11 The Five Year Engagement 13 Chimpanzee 15 Girl in Progress

SOTM3: May 26

SOTM2: The Dark Knight