TylerDurden365

I'd say that's a fair complaint to level at sci-fi. Only STID had a big number, and even that disappointed. I do believe though that the GA burned out on blockbusters somewhere around MOS/WWZ and hasn't come back.

Not shocked that WTM is breaking out. The audience for R-rated comedies was looking for new material (last one released was The Heat back in late June). On the flip side, another big sci-fi blockbuster that had breakout potential in Elysium gets capped because the audience is burned out on them at this point. The schedule fails to explain Planes breaking out after all these other family films disappointed. Guess kids really like talking vehicles or something.

There was some dollar theater expansion for IM3, but it hasn't hit all of the dollar theaters yet (i.e. I know it's playing at the cheap theater in Seattle, but not at the one in my town). I think Disney is rolling it out slowly for some reason.

1) What film finishes number two for the three day? We're the Millers 2) Which of the two 5 day openers grosses more? We're the Millers 3) Will Planes gross at least 25 mill? No 4) Will Elysium make more than 45 mill? No 5) Will Elysium make more than 2.5 mill for sneaks? No 6) Will 2 Guns fall less than 50% No 7) Will Percy Jackson have a Friday increased of at least 55%? Yes 8) Will We're the Millers have a Saturday increase of at least 25%? Yes 9) Will Smurfs fall less than 40%? Yes 10) Will WWZ gross more than 10 mill in Japan? Yes 11) Will Elysium get at least an A- cinemascore? Yes 12) Will Conjuring fall less than 40%? No 10/12 3000 11/12 5000 12/12 7000 What finishes in spots 3 Planes 4 Percy Jackson 5 2 Guns 6 The Smurfs 2 7 The Wolverine 16 The Way, Way Back 2000 each 10,000 bonus if you get all 6 correct Bonus 1: What will the three day gross be for the 4 openers? 5000 102.354 Bonus 2: What will the top 12 cume be? 5000 155.845

1) Will We're the Millers open to more than Percy Jackson on Wednesday? 2000 Yes 2) Will Percy Jackson have a better Thursday drop than WTM? 2000 Yes 3) Will WTM and PJ's first two days combine to make more than 13.5 mill? 2000 Yes 4) What film in the top 12 will have the biggest drop on Wednesday? The Smurfs 2 5) What film in the top 12 will have the best hold on Thursday? Despicable Me 2 6) Will The Heat increase on Thursday? Yes 7) Will either Miller's or PJ be the number one film on Thursday? Yes 8) Will any film that is reported by Mojo on Thursday have an increase of more than 12.5%? No 9) Will Elysium have a Saturday increase (only from Fri's number, not midnight) of more than 10%? Yes 10) Will Grown Ups 2 have a Friday increase of more than 57%? Yes 11) Which of DM2, Turbo and MU will have the best decrease on Sunday? Monsters University 12) Which of MOS, TLR and WWZ will have the best Saturday increase? 2000 World War Z 10/12 3000 11/12 5000 12/12 7000 Bonus 1: What will the top 10 add up to on Thursday? 4000 24.853 Bonus 2: What will the cume be for GU2, Conjuring and Smurfs 2 be for the weekend? 4000 23.755 Bonus 3: What films finish in spots: 5 Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters 7 The Smurfs 2 9 Despicable Me 2 11 Red 2

SOTM 11: Pacific Rim

1) Will 2 Guns open to more than 37.5 mill? Yes 2) Will Smurfs 2 drop more than 25.5% on Thurs? No 3) Will Smurfs 2 5 day be more than 5 mill more than 2 Guns OW? No 4) Will Wolverine fall more than 55%? Yes 5) Will Pac Rim fall more than 21% on Sunday? Yes 6) Will Turbo, DM2 and MU all fall less than 42.5%? Yes 7) Will Fruitvale stay in the top 10? Yes 8) Will NYSM gross higher than The Great Gatsby? No 9) Will The Heat finish with more than Red2? Yes 10) Will Pac Rim stay in teh top 10? Yes 11) Will GU2 fall less than 39.5%? No 12) Will Wolverine + The Conjuring= more than Smurfs 3 day + The Heat? Yes 13) Will RIPD fall less than 50%? No 14) Will MOS stay in the top 20? No 11/14 3000 12/14 4000 13/14 5000 14/14 8000 What finishes in spots: 5 Despicable Me 2 6 Turbo 7 Grown Ups 2 12 RIPD 13 The Way, Way Back 2000 each 4000 bonus if all 5 correct Bonus 1: What will the top 10 cume be? 5000 137.684 Bonus 2: What will Smurfs 5 day total be? 5000 30.656 Bonus 3: Worth 30,000 if right and if you are not successful, u lose 15,000 for the week. There are 4 questions. You must get them all correct to get the bonus. Abstain

This thread has careened off the rails something fierce. Not saying that I mind though. On a more numbers based posting (boring, I know): Fox has to be happy with the 141 WW OW for Wolverine, even if the domestic number is a bit of a disappointment.

I'd say it's better to think of BH6 as the Disney fall animated movie than as a Marvel movie. That's the audience it's going for, at least. Interstellar should be fine, though that budget is kind of insane even with Nolan's track record.

I think people are just burned out on FX heavy blockbusters at this point, at least to the point where getting a 60+ opening becomes difficult. Blame the poor schedule plan, the studios burned out the GA it appears from these depressed numbers.

1) Will The Wolverine open to at least 50 mill? Yes 2) Will The Wolverine open to at least 60 mill? Yes 3) Will RIPD fall less than 62.5% No 4) Will Turbo fall more than 37.5%? Yes 5) Will The Way Way Back gross with more than RIPD? No 6) Will Grown Ups 2 have a Saturday increase of more than 39.5%? No 7) Will The Conjuring fall more than 53.5%? No 8) Will DM2 gross within 2 mill of Conjuring? No 9) Will Conjuring's Saturday drop from it's opening Saturday be less than 50%? Yes 10) Will Conjuring+DM2 add up to at least half of what Wolverine opens too? Yes 11) Will Wolverine do at least 3.5 mill at midnight/sneak? Yes 12) What film will have best drop in the top 15 (not including DM2 or Turbo or MU or TWWB)? 5000 Fruitvale Station 10/12 3000 11/12 4000 12/12 10,000 What finishes in spots: 4 Turbo 7 Pacific Rim 11 The Way, Way Back 13 The To-Do List 15 The Lone Ranger Bonus 1: What will the total weekend cume be for Conjuring, Wolverine and WWZ? 4000 92.548 Bonus 2: What will Pacific Rim gross on Saturday? 4000 3.625 Bonus 3: Abstain

SOTM 10: Option 5) None will pass 100 million Turbo 92m The Conjuring 75m Red 2 72m RIPD 20m

1) What film finishes first? The Conjuring 2) Will DM2 finish with more than Turbo? No 3) Will Turbo fall more than 25% on Thurs? No 4) Will RIPD open to more than 15 mill? No 5) Will Ryan Reynolds films gross more than 45 mill? No 6) Will Conjuring make more than 3 mill for sneaks/midnt? Yes 7) Will Red have an OD of more than 9 mill? No 8) Will RED's OD and Turbo's OD combine to make more than RIPD's OW? Yes 9) Will Turbo make more than 1 mill from sneak/mid? No 10) Will GU2 fall less than 50%? No 11) Will PR fall less than 45%? No 12) Will TLR fall more than 45%? Yes 13) Will WWZ 's Globl Total be more than 455 mill (currently it is at 423)? Yes 14) Will Conjuring's OW be at least double it's Friday gross (incl sneaks/mid)? Yes 11/14 3000 12/14 4000 13/14 6000 14/14 8000 What finishes in spots: 3 Red 2 7 The Heat 8 RIPD 10 The Lone Ranger 12 White House Down 2000 each 3000 bonus if all correct Bonus 1: What will Conjuring make OW(3 decimals please) 35.557 Bonus 2: What will the openers (the 4 wides) gross for the 3 day weekend? 88.256 Bonus 3: Four parter: 20,000 Abstain

Yes

SOTM 9: Up

Hellboy 2 would most likely have had a rough drop regardless, but it really got kneecapped by having it's second weekend run up against Dark Knight's monster opening.

I also can't say I'm shocked that GU2 is breaking out slightly considering that it's filling a niche (live-action family comedy) that has no other competition at this point.

Bay makes great action films that connect with audiences in a broad manner, for the most part. There's also an evil little imp inside his brain that comes out sometimes (Bad Boys 2, Pain & Gain, parts of TF2) that no one really wants to see. GDT makes enjoyable character fantasy and let his crazy creature loving brain run rampant with PR. I love both, but I can see how one would prefer one and find the other's work tedious.

1) What film finishes number 1? 5000 Pacific Rim 2) What film finishes number 2? 2000 Despicable Me 2 3) Will DM2 fall less than 45%? No 4) Will The Lone Ranger fall less than 45%? No 5) Will any film, without a theater increase of more than 150 theaters, fall less than 35.7%? Yes 6) Will WHD increase more than 50% on Friday? Yes 7) Will WWZ have a Saturday increase of more than 40%? No 8) Will GU2 and PR combine to make more than 82.5 mill? Yes 9) Will MU fall more than 40%? Yes 10) Will Pain and Gain fall more than 55%? Yes 11) Will Pawn Shop Chronicles make more than $125,000? No 12) Will GU2 make less than 3 mill from sneaks/early? Yes 13) Will PR make more than 2.5 mill from sneaks/early? Yes 14) Will GU2's weekend gross be at least 9X the combined gross of what PR and GU2 makes at midnights/early? No 12/14 3000 13/14 5000 15/15 10,000 Bonus 1: What will the combined gross be of PR, GU2 and DM2? 5000 128.655 Bonus 2: What will DM2's total gross WW be? 5000 463.854 Bonus 3: What will MOS' domestic gross be? 5000 282.198 Bonus 4: What finishes in spots: 1 Pacific Rim 2 Despicable Me 2 3 Grown Ups 2 4 The Heat 12 Now You See Me 15 Fast and Furious 6 2000 each 5000 bonus for all 6 correct tylerdurden: 1) Will GU make more more than 4 mill at midnights/early? No 2) Will MOS have a Saturday increase of more than 39.4%? No 3) Will NYSM fall less than 28.5%? No

Absolutely. Why wait for pesky things like actual numbers? They just get in the way.

Also coming to the second-run theater on the same day: Hangover III, Internship and After Earth. The studios aren't hesitating to spin those flops out.

Some good news, potentially, for those of you who said "Yes" on Pain & Gain for SOTM 7: it's finally slated to open at the second-run theater in my hometown on Wednesday. Shows that Paramount may be pulling the trigger on an expansion just in time.

I wonder if Tatum is a draw in regards to action movies. The big flicks he had last year were all aimed at a very different audience than the average action flick. He's definitely got the ability to draw in the ladies for romances and he plays well in comedies, but his two big action flicks (the first G.I. Joe and WHD) have underperformed expectations, imo.

Hangover 3 is still the disappointment of the summer even with this WHD opening, when you consider that HO3 lost over half the audience of HO2 domestically and cost more money to make.

1) Will Despicable Me 2 have an opening day of more than 25 mill? 5000 No 2) Will Lone Ranger have an opening day of more than 10 mill? Yes 3) Will DM2 fall more than 20% on Thursday? 5000 Yes 4) Will Lone Ranger fall more than 20% Thursday? Yes 5) Will IM3 increase more than 58.6% on Friday? Yes 6) Will DM make more than 85 mill? 5000 Yes 7) Will Lone Ranger's 5 day be more than DM2's Wed and Saturday total? Yes 8) Will The Heat fall more than 45%? No 9) Will WHD fall more than 50%? Yes 10) Will any film increase more than 91.6% on Friday? No 11) Will any film increase more than 24.1% on Saturday? Yes 12) Will any film fall less than 18% on Sunday? Yes 13) Will MU fall less than 30% on Wednesday? No 14) Will Monster's University fall less than 30%? No 15) Will WWZ have a Saturday increase of more than 13%? Yes 16) Will NYSM fall less than 22%? No 17) Will TITE have a Thursday drop? Yes 18) Will Kevin Hart make more than 8 million for the 5 day? Yes 19) Will Kevin Hart have an opening day of more than 1.5 million? Yes 20) Will MOS fall less than 43%? No 16/20 4000 17/20 6000 18/20 8000 19/20 10,000 20/20 15,000 Bonus 1: What finishes is spots: 5 World War Z 6 White House Down 9 This is the End 11 Fast & Furious 6 Bonus 2: What will the combined gross of DM2 and THR be for Wed? (three decimal places) 4000 32.584 Bonus 3: What will the top 12 cume be? three decimal places. 4000 227.265