MovieMan89

For anyone curious, the films in the top 50-60 ranges are events, except for the ones that made a huge chunk of their admissions in re-releases: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/adjusted.htm Your fav blockbuster not in that range you say? NOT AN EVENT.

That event does not belong with those other peasants. And arguing movies are events based on their unadjusted grosses is hilariously misinformed. If you want to argue movies like Civil War and Age of Ultron were "events", you have to also argue that about films like Crocodile Dundee, The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse, Young Frankenstein, Gremlins, Narnia, The Fugitive, The Caine Mutiny, and Meet the Fockers. Lol, no.

Oh don't misunderstand me, I didn't think the last half hour was amazing either. I genuinely don't get why everyone is freaking out. But it did at least give me something to finally hold onto, however small it was. And the last 5 minutes or so are admittedly A material.

It's too damn boring for 90 minutes of the runtime and nothing invested me in the new characters or the story. They were the antithesis to TFA's instantly endearing and memorable new characters. Not sure what else I can say?

\ But even on the high end, 9 films have had higher Sundays. Not an event.

It's animation though. They have to be absolutely horrible before sub 3x tends to happen. And considering I for one can't see an OW below 100, I think 300 is nearly locked.

Furthermore, I'm fairly certain it has a huge teen following. The sheer kid+teen appeal of Lego Batman could take it to 350 all on its own.

Possibility, yes. Likely, 400. But this board doesn't even seem to be thinking 200 which is asinine.

Um, fantastic for SLOP? As far as I know, me and @Christmas Baumer are the only two to predict remotely close to what SLOP actually made. Though I was about 40m too low, so I shoulda went higher. SS I was banking on fantastic WOM, I know stupid for DCEU right? Don't ask me why I thought they could actually pull out a good film. That said, if they had my 450-ish prediction wouldn't have been very far off.

I really don't get the lowballing of Lego Batman among this forum? I mean Batman is insanely popular among kids, and here's a Batman film even the 5 year old crazed fanboy of the family can see. Not even taking into account any of the teen/adult appeal it's bound to have. I'm still not ruling out 500 DOM.

Basically since TDK. Although if we adjust for inflation every Batman film has opened pretty massively.

I'd tread cautiously about gloating just yet. Nothing about a 155m opener says a 2.9x multi is impossible.

I would put Pirates down at like 15-17 among 100m potential openers next year. Gonna need a helluva marketing campaign from here to do it, the franchise is in pretty dire condition domestically. Logan is a wild card after what a viral hit the trailer has been, but as we know that doesn't necessarily mean everything. Apes I can't see because that would be too drastic of an increase over the previous opening. TF5 you never know, but after TF4 had to crawl and gasp over the 100 line, I highly doubt it. As for Lego Batman, I'll believe a Batman film opening to less than 100m in the modern era when I see it.

I already broke down the statistics of how over 100m+ openers work, sorry if you missed it but I'm not wasting my time to do it again for you. Basically, it 100% supported my conclusion of hitting a 3x multi being very tough given the size of the OW, and the only ones that have done it have been extremely kid friendly films, which I don't believe R1 is at all. TDK is the one and only exception.

10 100+ next year? Lego Batman, Beauty and the Beast, Fate of the Furious, Guardians 2, Wonder Woman, Despicable Me 3, Spider-man, Thor, Justice League, E8

Needs a 3.24x to hit 500. Which will likely increase to at least a 3.25x when actuals come in.

Lol, nice job of cherry picking sub 70m openers that had poor WOM. All those 90+ openers you listed had well below a 3x multi, so you're not really helping your case there...

I think a 3x multi is most likely. I won't be surprised if it goes as low as 2.9x, but I would be surprised if it went any lower.

Because if something that opened to 50m could drop that much in its second weekend on the same days, it's a good indicator of how bad the drop for R1 could be, WOM or not.

Far more reasonable. The predictions around here though are insinuating multis around the 3.5x mark though.

Equally bad holds, despite all those holdovers being sub 20m.

If it's dropping 65%+ next weekend yeah it kinda does. I mean obviously it won't have any 2.2-2.5x multi like most films that drop like that in their second weekend would, but a 3x multi is highly likely.

The bar for success was like 300 DOM. Who was ever talking about a "bar for success?"

Really, it's like some of you forgot all sense and logic when remembering how box office works. 155m openers and 50m openers will NEVER behave the same, I don't care if they open in a brand new 13th month of the year.

Lol, forgetting that 50m OW much? Yeah because King Kong TOTALLY would have had a 3.5x+ multi with a 150m OW. If KK fell 58% off a mere 50m, 65%+ isn't out of the question next weekend for R1.