MovieMan89

Id like to hope people wouldn't do that given the SW pattern of the first in the trilogy always being the biggest by far.

Just for the record, disappointing and bad are not synonyms. The OW can be absolutely fine (which it is) and still be disappointing (which it is).

Oh same here. Always thought it would easily win. But now there is no doubt in my mind. It should be able to stomp 450-475m (AoU's likely range).

I never imagined it opening below 200, and I know that such a high floor seems silly but it didn't really make much sense for it to do otherwise. So yeah this is a disappointing ow for sure. Huge, but a little disappointing nontheless. Especially since I'm not seeing legs much past 2.5x. At any rate, I'm now completely confident about Episode VII winning the year.

Agree 100%. They need to find someway around that. It will be especially important in OS markets where Captain America isn't a big deal.

Especially if they throw Iron Man into the title ala BvS, which I still kinda suspect they will. It will be marketed as Cap 3 AND IM4.

Not on opening. That movie will need to rely on great WOM like all Cameron movies. Will be too long for there to be massive OW hype. Some hype for sure, but nothing record breaking.

It's a testament to how huge MCU is now. It's ridiculous that an 85m+ OD was locked for this, but it pretty much was and we knew that. So probably not gonna be a lot of excitement or surprise unless it hits that 100 mark.

Variety's estimates have me excited as that would mean a chance for $100m OD. That would be an incredible box office milestone.

Even the fact that it's flirting with beating the OD record is incredible given that it won't be anywhere near as OD frontloaded as DH2. If anyone's disappointed with high 80's that's quite frankly ridiculous.

It's called the Hero's Journey and its been a recurring trope in popular film and fiction in general for forever. Certainly not just animation. Star Wars or Potter or LOTR ring any bells? It's a tried and true archetype most people will connect and relate with.

These first 3 episodes this season have seemed so slow to me. And it's weird because I really can't even complain because nothing has been bad. Its been good as usual. Just doesn't seem like a whole lot happening. Wonder when we're gonna catch up with Bran and co. A nice dose of the supernatural could definitely help.

If legs start giving out next weekend once it actually has some family competition, then I'd say my assumption is pretty safely proven. And I'm sorry but anyone who thinks that lack of direct competition doesn't help movies doesn't pay attention at all to the box office. It's never the only factor, but it is definitely a factor in cases of weak direct competition. The only time it doesn't factor in at all is if a movie is so unappealing to the GA that no amount of lack of competition will cause them to go see it.

Yes, but only had a 2.6x multi opposed to Insidious' 4.2x multi. That would suggest that the want and demand for a sequel will be nowhere near what it was for Insidious because that movie clearly had great WOM. Sinister was probably liked OK, but I think the multi makes it safe to say people didn't think that much of it. I would be surprised if the sequel has much hype. Though speaking personally, Sinister is one of my fav horror films of the past 5 years. I just don't think a lot of others who saw it agree with me.

A lot of kids get excited just about going to a movie. Especially if they get it in their head they want to go. They don't care what they're seeing in that case, just that they're getting to go. At least speaking for the kids I've been around and myself as a kid. Hell, even as an adult I get antsy if I haven't gone to the theater in a while. I want to see something, I don't even care that much anymore what it is. Some of us love going to the movies. And again, no one twist my words to think that I'm saying kids never have specific movies they do or don't want to see. Obviously they do. They're just are far more lenient about it, especially under the age of 8. Going to the theater is sometimes a fun experience/treat for them regardless of the movie.

So say Paul Blart had dropped 50%. That would mean it would have grossed around $12m instead of $15m. Now you can't tell me that extra 3m didn't come from the fact that there are barely any other family options (especially new ones) and not because it's having great WOM.

When we're talking about such small grosses, it absolutely does make sense. Now if we were talking big 40m+ grosses, then obviously that would be more than just nothing else out to see. But the fact of the matter is Home and Blart's grosses this weekend are small, and even if they had dropped 50% the actual change in gross wouldn't have been that big. Their small drops at small grosses are absolutely because there's nothing else out for that audience right now. Cinderella has run its course and Monkey Kingdom is a doc. Those are the family options. This will be proven when they both do drop a decent amount next weekend due to families flocking to AOU. Kids like to go to movies, and they'll go to about anything their parents will take them to if they're in the mood to see a movie. That doesn't mean they don't have particular movies that they really want to see, it just means they'll see just about anything a lot easier than your average adult will.

Subjecting your kids to Paul Blart should be a form of child abuse. Unless your goal is to raise Honey Boo Boo.

Eh, families don't have much other options right now. So I wouldn't put too much stock in Home and Paul Blart holding decently because of good WOM.

Not really. I think about 2/3 of us are fully expecting it to break the record, if only by a few mil. Certainly wouldn't be like when the first did it. Now that was unexpected.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe F7 just hit the billion OS mark faster or about the same time as Avatar. I remember it being right around a month for Avatar to do it. That OS gross is just absolutely insane. It almost doesn't even make sense it's so big for such a mid level OS franchise before this. Seems like some crazy fanboy's unrealistic prediction that would never happen in a million years. Except it is happening.

I don't see Poltergeist doing more than 50m DOM. It doesn't look like it will appeal at all to fans of the original, and I think the younger audience will find it very pat. Seems kinda dated given all the supernatural horror we're now used to. Insidious 3 should drop a decent bit if it follows most 3rd horror installments. The first Sinister was only a very moderate hit and I don't think it built much hype for a sequel. So I guess that leaves Gallows as the only thing that could be a real horror hit this summer. But I could also see it doing under 20m so who knows with that one.

Would think it would stabilize after next weekend though. Not a very intimidating May after we get past AOU OW.

Assuming F7 hits 350, either it or AOU will be the 30th film to hit the mark DOM. Crazy there's that many now. AOU will also be our 20th 400m-er (barring a catastrophe of impossible proportions).

I was thinking like 370-380. I know AOU will hurt its drop next weekend, but it is still trailing THG by less than 15m.