Heretic

Next weekend is looking hotter than this weekend at the moment

The pound has weakened significantly in the last year from $1.4 to $1.2, almost the lowest since 1985 (!) so not good news for international grosses. To reach $100m in todays terms requires £83m.

It’s a similar situation in all of Western and Northern Europe, especially so in countries like UK, Germany, France, where prolonged spells of sunny and hot weather is not the ‘norm’, so people take advantage of the outdoors when the weather is good rather than sit inside a dark room for hours watching a film. But even in countries like Italy, beach going and summer activities are much more popular than going to the cinema.

Difficult to say as depends on legs over summer, but: TGM ~ £80m Elvis ~ £25m JWD ~ £37m

While it’s sunny and hot, drops will be bigger than normal, but some films will be impacted more than others.

Weather is too good for cinema this weekend and it looks like a prolonged spell of hot summer weather lasting all week and possibly the following week is coming up, so weaker BO returns can probably be expected.

Thor predictions? Maybe £15m 4-day. Dr Strange 2 opened with £19.8m 4 day but think the general consensus at least in the US is that this will open lower, so assuming that will translate overseas too. Weather also looks to be improving this weekend, looking very warm and sunny so think that will impact BO.

10th all time spot is guaranteed for Top Gun, and it has a very good shot at 8th of all time, but think Endgame in 7th will be a touch too far.

Not surprised, JWD seems to be playing very well with families as LY clearly isn’t making much of an impact. Is TG also above Elvis?

Top Gun higher than last Friday! Granted last Friday was a scorcher down here, but excellent nonetheless. Looking like sub 20% drop possible. Elvis maybe £4.5m? Decent.

Holds should be strong this weekend, especially Top Gun which I think will have a minimal drop. Weather looks quite poor across the country.

Another fantastic weekend for TG, £70m is locked at this point, would be amazing if it could manage to crack the top 10. Actually a pretty decent drop for JW in the end. Lightyear poor opening not unexpected.

Yeah yesterday was like 33 here but in the north it wasn’t even half of that in some places, pretty crazy. But parts of France are seeing consecutive 40+ days so we should count ourselves lucky. I think today should see big increases as it’s a lot cloudier across the country, and tomorrow I expect will also be mostly flat, maybe even increases for films like Top Gun due to Father’s Day, so could be a great weekend for that film particularly. Not surprised at the weak performance of Lightyear or the huge drop for JWD. The latter might even struggle for much more than £30m.

Top Gun should be over £56m hopefully by Sunday. Expecting a 60% drop for JW. The weather is amazing this week, Friday could be in the mid 30s and Saturday also looks hot so expect the BO will suffer a bit. Wouldn’t be surprised with only £3-4m for Lightyear, but imagine it’ll rebound and have a decently long run through June and July, and possibly beyond, similar to Sonic. Although Minions will take the limelight soon.

What are the expectations for TGM in SK? Can it hit 8m admissions?

Est. $7m, -45.7%. I’d say a very good drop in the face of JWD and loss of PLFs/IMAX.

$15.4m for JWD, that’s around £12.5m, very good opening. Not sure how it’s managed that number though if Fri+Sat was around £8m, that would mean a flat Sunday.

Great Saturday for both. So seems more like £11m+ for JWD, and around £5.5m for TG2.

Today should see a bump for JW, so looking like £10-11m 3 day. Top Gun clearly hit by loss of IMAX/PLF screens as that’s a similar number to Monday. But should hopefully manage above £5m for the weekend.

Just saw JWD and tbh I think it was enjoyable for what it was, but without the original trio it would have been awful. The first half did drag a bit and I can fully see where the criticisms are coming from, but it was better than FK (which I don’t hate), especially the last half hour or so.

Mostly normal by the looks of things. In the last 9 months, we have had the number 3 and 4 biggest movies of all time with NTTD and NWH, and Top Gun 2 will be entering the top 25 soon, possibly even top 20. Batman and DS2 both topped £40m too. So seems like the appetite for cinema is as it was pre-pandemic.

That is fantastic considering yesterday was back to work/school after a long weekend. Should be very near the £50m mark by Sunday.

£60m seems like a good bet right now for Top Gun. Regarding Jurassic World, maybe £11-12m 3 day? Fallen Kingdom’s £14.3m was a 5 day opening, and Jurassic World’s £19.4m was 4 day. Hope TG can manage to drop under 50%, but no doubt it’ll be hit hard this weekend due to the loss of PLF/IMAX

Take a quick look around, thinking £4m could happen today

So should be around £37-38m by Sunday. £50m is locked, and it needs to hit £58m to enter top 25 of all time, which I’d say has a decent chance of happening right now. Will be interesting to see the impact on losing PLFs/IMAX next week.