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GiantCALBears

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    BATMAN V SUPERMAN WEEKEND THREAD | 166.01M OW, New March OW Record. 420.4M WW OW.

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by GiantCALBears

    4 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

    I missed that argument, lol. Been trying to keep my sanity these past couple days. 

     

    A lot of discussion in the two big BvS threads the last 24 hours has been centered on how reviews affect WOM, the time period at which it does etc. I agree with you that in this social media crazed world we live in now, instant buzz matters. Even to the OD/OW.

    • Like 2

    BATMAN V SUPERMAN WEEKEND THREAD | 166.01M OW, New March OW Record. 420.4M WW OW.

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

    Reviews don't matter in the sense that people are going to read every review, analyze them, and decided not to see something. But in today's instant and interconnected digital world, buzz builds. BvS has serious negative buzz coming off of it. I've seen major news sites carry stories about how bad the reviews are and all. People hear buzz, and they decide whether to spend money. Tickets are expensive. So reviews have actionable effects. For example, personal anecdote obviously, but I have been trying to get a friend to go see the movie with me tomorrow night. But several people have turned me down, with simple reasoning: "I heard it sucks." So they're not analyzing all the reviews, but clearly a negative buzz is being built that is swaying people off the fence. And my friends aren't just an isolated group of pretentious snobs- I think most people are the same way. People don't want to spend money on a movie where every bit of buzz is actively bad. And this is backed up by statistics. When I ran my regression study of this in December, I found that is doesn't really matter whatsoever if you are a good reviewed movie, an average reviewed movie, or a great reviewed movies- they have statistically even number of success. But it DOES matter if you had bad reviews. The number of 250+ movies with reviews below 50 on RT was a very, very small cluster.

     

    Nice post echoing what a lot of us were trying to say last night. Obviously I 100% agree.

    • Like 3

    BATMAN V SUPERMAN WEEKEND THREAD | 166.01M OW, New March OW Record. 420.4M WW OW.

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by GiantCALBears

    10 minutes ago, CJohn said:

    I have learned that everything is possible in box office and nothing can surprise me anymore tbh. My predictions is the one above, I won't change it more. Seems solid enough and I think WOM won't be toxic for it to die that hard without any competition. But hey, like I said, nothing can surprise me anymore. Everything can happen.

     

    Everything is pretty broad (it's possible OW to gross $100m or $250m???), it's not going lower than $150m or higher than $200m. The truth lies somewhere in the middle, I'm hoping closer to the former.

    BATMAN V SUPERMAN WEEKEND THREAD | 166.01M OW, New March OW Record. 420.4M WW OW.

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    1 minute ago, somebody85 said:


    Oh no, that's a lie. It would have been big with his fans but outside of that...no way. If critics had slammed that movie, it would not have opened huge.

    The reason it opened huge was because most of the critics agreed with the GA on the movie. They said it was super funny and fresh. And go see it! Chris Stuckmann gave it an A+. There is nio way it was going to be anywhere near that huge without those reviews first.
     

    That was a huge deal. And this is coming from someone who was very excited for it.

    Most people who were liking the marketing on Youtube were cautiously optimistic. They thought the marketing would be better then the movie itself and were hoping the reviews lived up to what the pre screenings were saying.

     

    Yeah I missed that line, it's obvious reviews helped it huge.

    • Like 1

    BATMAN V SUPERMAN WEEKEND THREAD | 166.01M OW, New March OW Record. 420.4M WW OW.

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, somebody85 said:

    Also the Flixster rating keeps gradually decreasing. It's down to a 81%, it started about an 84 or 85 today. 

    The thing that concerns me about this movie is it's not just the "snobby critics" that haven't liked it. It's the big Youtube reviewers, it's sites like IGN, Collider, etc. 
     

    It'd be one thing if you were hearing one thing somewhere else (like from these so called pretentious critics *rolls eyes*) and everyone else was saying something different. But that's not happening. The most common complaints are coming from all sides.
     

    There are people like CJohn who loved it and say fuck the critics but oh man, are there some people have gone in depth and torn it to shreds. Some who didn't want to. You couldn't do that if the movie was amazing.

     

    The level of excitement even among the positive reviews is not good.

    • Like 1

    BATMAN V SUPERMAN WEEKEND THREAD | 166.01M OW, New March OW Record. 420.4M WW OW.

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    Just now, CJohn said:

    It sometimes exists a correlation, sometimes it doesn't. It is as simple as that.

     

    There is no trend. The only trend that exists is in your head. You love TF movies. Since reviews suck shouldn't you hate them and spread bad WOM????

     

    No it's not as simple as that but believe what you want and/or study what a correlation actually means. So much lol.

    BATMAN V SUPERMAN WEEKEND THREAD | 166.01M OW, New March OW Record. 420.4M WW OW.

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Telemachos said:

     

    Of course it matters to some degree. But for the large block of diehards (the ones who drive all these big preview numbers and ODs), WOM from critics is far less important than WOM from who they consider to be fellow fans. And for those on the fence or more casual fans, WOM can come from a number of different things: critical praise, sheer talkability/buzz (sellout reports on the news, water cooler talk at work, that sort of thing), or just WOM from friends.

     

    Im so excited to find out soon on this one, can't wait to enjoy the meltdowns.

    BATMAN V SUPERMAN WEEKEND THREAD | 166.01M OW, New March OW Record. 420.4M WW OW.

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    1 minute ago, CJohn said:

    Again, TMNT has a 21% on RT and had amazing legs, the first Transformers is rotten and it is one of the most beloved blockbusters of the past few years, Divergent has a goddamn 40% rating on RT and had pretty good legs as well, Batman Forever was pretty well received at his time and carries an impressive 41% rating.

     

    On the other end of the spectrum, recently released Hail Caesar was poorly received but the GA but has an over 80% rating, Everest had pretty poor legs while carrying a 72% fresh rating, two more examples of the Fall are The Walk (it never took over despite his impressive 85% rating on RT) and Crimson Peak (good reviews, poor opening, terrible legs followed).

     

    I can continue this forever.

     

    Sometimes that correlation exists, sometimes it doesn't. 

     

    Ok then I'm flat out saying you are wrong and overall it does exist. There are always outliers in any sample.

    • Like 1

    BATMAN V SUPERMAN WEEKEND THREAD | 166.01M OW, New March OW Record. 420.4M WW OW.

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by GiantCALBears

    2 minutes ago, CJohn said:

    I am just giving you examples. There are tons of examples that contradict other examples. TMNT had brutal reviews but fantastic WOM and the brutal reviews meant 0. Green Lantern had awful reviews and a great OD but the WOM killed it. And we can go on and on about this. There is an example for pretty much every case. Things are not as black and white as you think they are.

     

    It's just silly to minimize the correlation between critical reviews & audience WOM when it clearly exists.

    • Like 1

    BATMAN V SUPERMAN WEEKEND THREAD | 166.01M OW, New March OW Record. 420.4M WW OW.

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, CJohn said:

    Lol. 

     

    Things are not as black or white as you think. Everyone I knew, knew Deadpool before the release of the movie and the trailers were very appealing. Nobody gave a shit about Green Lantern and the trailers weren't exactly good either. We just didn't realize how popular Deadpool really was. It was gonna open huge regardless of the reviews.

     

    Green Lantern had a pretty good OD. It was the insanely bad WOM that killed it. Deadpool was riding on an immense amount of hype and the reviews only helped. But in the end, reviews didn't make much of a difference in the OW of either of them. After OW it was the WOM that killed GL and made Deadpool reach the 350M DOM.

     

    Marketing is what it is all about for the OW of a movie. WOM is what it is all about for the legs of a movie.

     

    Reviews matter in the last minute marketing push that happens every time on social media which is the most powerful source of buzz these days.

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