peludo

September 18-24: 1. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice 2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens 3. Suicide Squad 4. Star Trek Beyond 5. Captain America: Civil War 6. The Martian 7. The Hateful Eight 8. The Good Dinosaur 9. Bourne 5 10. Finding Dory

6.36

I do not think IO can be compared to MI5. This is an animated film. The weekdays are quite lower than other films.

Sad to hear that Anyway, I did not expect too much from China for IO.

Excepting BH6, the rest of films were released in China in a similar date than the rest of the world. However, Minions has been released 2 months later. That is a huge difference to take into account relative to piracy.

The original is one of my favorite films of my childhood. Please, do not destroy it...

I will compare with Harry Potter and LOTR, which were the franchises that were competing with Star Wars during last trilogy: Phantom Menace was the biggest Hollywood release in 1999 ($3.9m) Attack of the Clones ($5.4m) was behind Harry Potter 1 ($7.1m) and Fellowship of the Ring ($6.4m) in 2002, but over Spider-man ($5.2m) Revenge of the Sith ($9.3m) was behind Harry Potter 4 ($11.7m) in 2005. Previous year, ROTK already did $10m. If this follow the same pattern and we take into account that: * Last Harry Potter did about $65m in 2011 (just for reference, the same year that KFP2 did $100m, for which sequel we are talking about $250-300m). So we could talk about $180-$200m for a today HP film. * This year, Hobbit 3 has done $125m. Hobbit films have been in a lower level than LOTR everywhere, about a 40% drop in attendance. So LOTR films could have done today about $180m-$200m, same figures than Harry Potter. * Last Spider-man film did a bit less than $100m last year, and Attack of the Clones already beat SM1, a quite better film than TASM2. If SW7 gets a normal release date, the logic tells me that a more accurate prediction should be $150-175m. Probably the 1999-2005 figures are not the best references because the market has changed dramatically, but we do not have another way to compare.

I did not expect a so good number for The Visit. Good for it. Capture the flag was at €4.5m at the end of last weekend. With children at school again, weekdays will have dropped a lot. Let's say €0.6-0.7m during the weekdays. So total should already be about €6.2-6.3m. To compare, Tadeo Jones was at €9.3m after a €1.55m 3rd weekend. I think €10-11m could be a good target. Glad to see 3 Spanish films in top 5

Because China LOVES 3D. If MI4 did not have 3D (I thought it did in China), maybe the reason MI5 is not exploding is for some reason people have said here: the film seems (I have not seen it) to have less action or more plot than MI4. I do not know if that is true, but it could be a reason: not pure action, but a more complex film. Anyway, it seems to be headed to $160-170m, what means a 50% increase and nearly the same than US gross. I guess that is not bad.

There is someone who predicted $300m for Star Wars?? That is huge and illogical, IMHO Anyway, you can not completely discard that some movie can hit again, like F7, AoU, Monster Hunt or Jurassic World have already done. I am not saying that KFP3, SW7, IA5, IO... all of them will make tons of money, but maybe 1 or 2 of them will. You can not rule out it. Or maybe none of them will smash, but 1 or 2 local films are able to. BO never is completely predictable as we have already seen. MI5 does not have 3D, Minions has been released with good pirate copies, ... you can not just low every prediction just because 2 presumed huge successes have not hit as hard as we thought. The reality say that last year, US had 33 films over $100m and China 11 films over 600 million Yuan (that amount is a bit lower than $100m, but I use those figures to not depend on exchange rates). This year, the gap for those figures has narrowed, for the moment, to 19-12. China keeps increasing the number of hits, and, in some moment, another film will hit again, grossing $300 or $400m. And then, for sure, we will go crazy with predictions again. It is a matter of keeping the perspective.

Well, it depends on what are you looking at. If you look at OS figures, yes, FF7 still wins. But, in this case, FF7 and MH are not competing for OS revenues, but for the Chinese ranking. And in that category, Monster Hunt is already the number one, as you well say, since Chinese people buy tickets in yuan, not in dollars.

6x(135-150) means 810-900 million Yuan, what is about 130-145 million $. How the hell is that amount atrocious when DM2 did barely $50m just 1 year and a half ago? Another thing is if we have bloated the expectations, but objectively it is a good number. Second biggest animated film ever in China.

@Sensui: I will continue expanding numbers to other films. I have not forgotten Batman, SW2 or King Kong I have been very busy to do it. That's all.

Good debate... IMO, there is another key factor that we have not measured well. We look at China as the main change in OS figures, what it is true. But we have already asumed that there are many new markets with huge potential. But the reality is that 15 years ago, when HP or LOTR were starting, Latin America (Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela) and Asian markets(South Korea, Southeast countries like Indonesia, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan,...) were not as big. All of them are in the same way new markets that old franchises did not have. If someone had told us 10 years ago that a movie would gross 60 million in Brazil or Mexico, or 40-50 million in Venezuela, or we would see 10 million admissions films regularly in S. Korea, we would had laughed at him. It is not just China, but many others markets that have grown A LOT, not just in inflation, but in potential admissions. It is just that China is extremely big, so we do not look at them so frequently.

September 11-17: 1. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice 2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens 3. Suicide Squad 4. Star Trek Beyond 5. Captain America: Civil War 6. The Hateful Eight 7. The Good Dinosaur 8. Bourne 5 9. Finding Dory 10. Zootopia

I love both, but I will say Star Wars.

Some interesting data with the last list: - Adding China, Titanic would be close or maybe surpassing 4 billion - Star Wars would be on par or over Avatar - Independence Day would adjust to over 1.5 billion without China. Enormous. And looking at Star Wars in order to think in a prediction for SW7 we see: 6. Star Wars 1 (The Phantom Menace): 833 / 907 / 1740 24. Star Wars 3 (Revenge of the Sith): 548 / 578 / 1125 I think it will land somewhere between both. I think it will be bigger than both DOM / OS SW3 figures and lower than both DOM / OS SW1 figures. A prediction like 650 / 850 / 1.5 billion is, IMHO, definitely justified and, even, reasonable, considering that the 1.74b SW1 figure and the 1.125b SW3 number do not include an hypothetical Chinese release.

This is a WW list adjusted for inflation, without China and applying a 10% increase because of 3D to those films which were released just in 2D. Everyone is free to speculate about what would have done each film in China today. Again, this is just a game, with a not very rigorous adjust way (remember that OS figure has been adjusted following the adjust figures of US and with current exchange rates): #. FILM: DOM / OS-C / WW-C 1. Titanic: 1276 / 2366 / 3641 2. Star Wars: 1598 / 970 / 2568 3. Avatar: 851 / 1578 / 2428 4. E.T. The Extraterrestrial: 1290 / 970 / 2260 5. Jurassic Park: 847 / 1027 / 1874 6. Star Wars 1 (The Phantom Menace): 833 / 907 / 1740 7. Harry Potter 1 (Sorcerer's Stone): 518 / 1216 / 1734 8. The Lion King: 819 / 912 / 1731 9. The Return of the King: 578 / 979 / 1557 10. Independence Day: 640 / 895 / 1535 11. The Fellowship of the Ring: 515 / 1015 / 1530 12. The Two Towers: 544 / 926 / 1470 13. Jurassic World: 647 / 776 / 1423 14. Harry Potter 2 (Chamber of Secrets): 416 / 976 / 1392 15. Pirates of the Caribbean 2: 596 / 759 / 1355 16. Forrest Gump: 730 / 620 / 1350 17. The Avengers: 657 / 658 / 1315 18. Spider-man: 641 / 661 / 1302 19. Finding Nemo: 568 / 733 / 1301 20. Shrek 2: 656 / 616 / 1272 21. Harry Potter 4 (Globet of Fire): 418 / 768 / 1185 22. Avengers: Age of Ultron: 458 / 709 / 1167 23. The Dark Knight: 687 / 454 / 1141 24. Star Wars 3 (Revenge of the Sith): 548 / 578 / 1125 25. Furious 7: 351 / 771 / 1122 26. Frozen: 414 / 702 / 1116 27. Harry Potter 8 (Deathly Hallows II): 403 / 709 / 1112 28. The Sixth Sense: 533 / 572 / 1105 29. Pirates of the Caribbean 3: 415 / 680 / 1095 30. Harry Potter 3 (Prisoner of Azkaban): 371 / 719 / 1089 31. Matrix Reloaded: 431 / 653 / 1084 32. Spider-man 2: 555 / 526 / 1081 33. The Dark Knight Rises: 520 / 550 / 1070 34. Skyfall: 353 / 710 / 1063 35. Harry Potter 5 (Order of the Phoenix): 392 / 669 / 1060 36. Minions: 330 / 720 / 1050 37. Spider-man 3: 451 / 564 / 1015 38. Toy Story 3: 441 / 555 / 996 39. Harry Potter 6 (Half-Blood Prince): 372 / 617 / 988 40. Iron Man 3: 422 / 558 / 980 41. The Chronicles of Narnia I: 420 / 560 / 980 42. Alice in Wonderland: 355 / 577 / 933 43. The Da Vinci Code: 307 / 625 / 932 44. Harry Potter 7 (Deathly Hallows I): 346 / 575 / 921 45. Shrek 3: 433 / 480 / 913 46. Ice Age 3 (Dawn of the Dinosaurs): 242 / 635 / 877 47. Transformers 2 (Revenge of the Fallen): 495 / 377 / 872 48. The Hobbit 1 (An Unexpected Journey): 319 / 548 / 868 49. The Hunger Games 2 (Catching Fire): 482 / 374 / 856 50. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull: 408 / 440 / 848 51. Transformers 3 (Dark of the Moon): 373 / 467 / 840 52. Despicable me 2: 380 / 452 / 831 53. Twilight 5 (Breaking Dawn II): 339 / 471 / 810 54. The Hobbit 3 (Battle of the Five Armies): 262 / 546 / 807 55. Pirates of the Caribbean 4: 255 / 549 / 804 56. Transformers: 428 / 370 / 798 57. Inception: 342 / 444 / 786 58. The Hobbit 2 (Desolation of Smaug): 267 / 514 / 781 59. Up: 361 / 417 / 778 60. The Hunger Games 3 (Mockingjay I): 381 / 380 / 761 61. Twilight 2 (New Moon): 365 / 379 / 744 62. Inside Out: 350 / 386 / 736 63. Twilight 3 (Eclipse): 352 / 368 / 720 64. Twilight 4 (Breaking Dawn I): 327 / 384 / 711 65. The Hunger Games: 473 / 233 / 706 66. Fast & Furious 6: 271 / 431 / 702 67. 2012: 204 / 494 / 698 68. Ice Age 4 (Continental Drift): 170 / 525 / 696 69. Transformers 4 (Age of Extinction): 252 / 435 / 687 70. Shrek 4: 254 / 407 / 661 71. The Amazing Spider-man: 276 / 371 / 647 72. Monsters University: 277 / 363 / 640 73. Maleficent: 248 / 383 / 631 74. Guardians of the Galaxy: 342 / 286 / 629 75. Madagascar 3: 228 / 396 / 624 76. Mission Impossible 4: 244 / 352 / 595 77. Gravity: 283 / 312 / 595 78. Interstellar: 212 / 371 / 583 79. Man of Steel: 300 / 268 / 568 80. X-Men: Days of future past: 240 / 328 / 568 81. The Amazing Spider-man 2: 208 / 342 / 550 82. Captain America 2: 267 / 281 / 548 83. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes: 214 / 331 / 545 84. Kung Fu Panda 2: 175 / 313 / 488

"Capture the flag" 2nd wknd: 1.4 million euros. OW was 1.5 million, so nearly flat. About 800k admissions and about 4.5 million cume.

I will add a minimum 10% for 3D effect for those movies which did not have it. I will do it as soon as possible. Relative to Chinese figures, I do not see an easy solution. Maybe I take your two ideas and I make 2 lists.

In Spain, with that $22.4m figure, Inside Out should already have surpassed the €20m barrier. It is the 4th Pixar movie that has done it after Toy Story 3, Up and Finding Nemo. And just another 5 animated films have done it: Shrek 2 and 3, Ice Age 3, Minions and The Lion King.

There are several new enormous films and since the job of calculating a WW adjusted list is extremely difficult, I have made another simple (and unaccurate) list, applying the same inflation for OS figures than for DOM figures. I am conscious that it is not correct, and some figures could be quite wrong, but still could give us an approximate idea. Some developed markets (Eurozone, Australia) have always had a quite similar inflation to US (about 2-3%). Others like Japan has no inflation. And of course, there are many new big markets like certain South American or Asian countries whose inflation is quite bigger, but as I said, this is just an approximation. I have not applied the 3D boost for 2D films, so 3D films have advantage. We can discuss what ratio we can apply to 2D films to compensate this factor (5%? 10%? 15%?). And later we could play the game of guessing how much would have done today these films in China. As I said with previous posts in this thread, do not take too seriously the data I am giving. It is just an approximation. #. FILM: DOM ADJ / OS ADJ / WW ADJ 1. Titanic: 1160 / 2505 / 3665 2. Avatar: 851 / 1823 / 2674 3. Star Wars: 1453 / 882 / 2335 4. E.T. The Extraterrestrial: 1172 / 882 / 2054 5. Jurassic Park: 770 / 1037 / 1807 6. Jurassic World: 649 / 1003 / 1652 7. The Lion King: 745 / 853 / 1598 8. Star Wars 1 (The Phantom Menace): 757 / 831 / 1588 9. Harry Potter 1 (Sorcerer's Stone): 471 / 1106 / 1577 10. Furious 7: 351 / 1161 / 1512 11. The Return of the King: 526 / 904 / 1430 12. The Avengers: 657 / 752 / 1410 13. The Fellowship of the Ring: 468 / 936 / 1404 14. Avengers: Agre of Ultron: 458 / 944 / 1402 15. Independence Day: 582 / 813 / 1395 16. The Two Towers: 495 / 848 / 1342 17. Harry Potter 2 (Chamber of Secrets): 378 / 899 / 1277 18. Pirates of the Caribbean 2: 542 / 690 / 1232 19. Forrest Gump: 663 / 564 / 1227 20. Spider-man: 583 / 610 / 1193 21. Finding Nemo: 516 / 667 / 1183 22. Harry Potter 8 (Deathly Hallows II): 403 / 773 / 1177 23. Frozen: 414 / 750 / 1164 24. Shrek 2: 596 / 563 / 1159 25. Iron Man 3: 422 / 680 / 1103 26. Harry Potter 4 (Globet of Fire): 380 / 717 / 1097 27. The Sixth Sense: 484 / 580 / 1065 28. Minions: 329 / 714 / 1043 29. Star Wars 3 (Revenge of the Sith): 498 / 541 / 1038 30. The Dark Knight: 625 / 412 / 1037 31. Transformers 3 (Dark of the Moon): 373 / 655 / 1028 32. Skyfall: 321 / 707 / 1028 33. The Dark Knight Rises: 472 / 555 / 1028 34. Pirates of the Caribbean 3: 377 / 643 / 1020 35. Transformers 4 (Age of Extinction): 252 / 754 / 1006 36. Toy Story 3: 441 / 555 / 996 37. Harry Potter 3 (Prisoner of Azkaban): 337 / 658 / 995 38. Spider-man 2: 505 / 488 / 993 39. Harry Potter 5 (Order of the Phoenix): 356 / 636 / 992 40. Matrix Reloaded: 392 / 593 / 985 41. Spider-man 3: 410 / 540 / 951 42. Alice in Wonderland: 355 / 577 / 933 43. The Hobbit 3 (Battle of the Five Armies): 262 / 670 / 931 44. The Hobbit 1 (An Unexpected Journey): 319 / 600 / 919 45. The Chronicles of Narnia I: 382 / 522 / 904 46. Harry Potter 6 (Half-Blood Prince): 338 / 561 / 899 47. Despicable me 2: 380 / 504 / 884 48. Pirates of the Caribbean 4: 255 / 625 / 880 49. Harry Potter 7 (Deathly Hallows I): 315 / 559 / 874 50. Transformers 2 (Revenge of the Fallen): 450 / 422 / 872 51. The Da Vinci Code: 279 / 590 / 868 52. The Hobbit 2 (Desolation of Smaug): 267 / 588 / 855 53. Shrek 3: 394 / 437 / 831 54. The Hunger Games 2 (Catching Fire): 438 / 367 / 806 55. Ice Age 3 (Dawn of the Dinosaurs): 220 / 578 / 797 56. Inception: 311 / 481 / 792 57. Transformers: 389 / 390 / 779 58. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull: 371 / 400 / 771 59. Ice Age 4 (Continental Drift): 170 / 597 / 767 60. Twilight 5 (Breaking Dawn II): 308 / 428 / 736 61. The Hunger Games 3 (Mockingjay I): 346 / 382 / 728 62. Guardians of the Galaxy: 342 / 382 / 724 63. 2012: 186 / 531 / 717 64. Up: 328 / 379 / 707 65. Fast & Furious 6: 246 / 459 / 705 66. The Amazing Spider-man: 276 / 422 / 698 67. X-Men: Days of future past: 240 / 444 / 684 68. Maleficent: 248 / 430 / 678 69. Twilight 2 (New Moon): 332 / 344 / 676 70. Shrek 4: 254 / 422 / 676 71. Monsters University: 277 / 397 / 674 72. The Hunger Games: 430 / 240 / 670 73. Gravity: 283 / 382 / 665 74. Captain America 2: 267 / 396 / 663 75. Madagascar 3: 228 / 429 / 658 76. Twilight 3 (Eclipse): 320 / 335 / 654 77. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes: 214 / 438 / 652 78. Interstellar: 193 / 459 / 652 79. Mission Impossible 4: 222 / 426 / 647 80. Twilight 4 (Breaking Dawn I): 298 / 349 / 646 81. The Amazing Spider-man 2: 208 / 436 / 645 82. Man of Steel: 300 / 332 / 632 83. Kung Fu Panda 2: 175 / 413 / 587 84. Fast & Furious 5: 222 / 328 / 550

Agree. Dory can do it. Nemo would have done $490m OS with today exchange rates. In that number is not taken into account 3D of initial release, inflation or expanding markets effect. If the film is good enough, Frozen could fall.

Because there is a small chance Minions can outgross Frozen WW as the biggest animated film ever. It needs to make huge business in China to do it, but the chance exists. Concerning tastes, I agree with you. I consider Frozen a quite better film than Minions. Said this, I do not think none of them is between the best 10 animated films ever. Maybe, not even in the top 20. But that is just my personal opinion.

Those are huge and uncommon numbers for Italy. Really impressive.