peludo
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Everything posted by peludo
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Maybe this can not reach billion, but still well over $900m. Let's say it loses $100m from US and wins $50m from China relative to Skyfall. I do not see how it can lose another $150m from the rest of the markets to make "just" $900m, considering the huge numbers already reached in most markets. I would say $950-970m. -
November 13-19: 1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens 2. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice 3. Suicide Squad 4. The Good Dinosaur 5. Star Trek Beyond 6. Captain America: Civil War 7. Doctor Strange 8. The Hateful Eight 9. Bourne 5 10. The Revenant
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I was thinking in $125-130m before the release and it seems that will be the gross after 3 weekends. Amazing. The second highest film ever in UK is Avatar with about 94 million Pounds, isn't it? Can Spectre reach it?
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Well, in early 2012, before TA release, we could argue too that Avengers was going to have a bad behaviour because previous films like Iron Man 2 or Thor were awful and look what happened. Some people here are supposing that the film will be awful and that is a bit presumptuous. And you must have into account that Winter Soldier, with the boost of Avengers, 8 previous films that had already built the MCU, and having excellence critics and acceptance, just had a mere 2.7 multiplier in US, which it is not something spectacular, and barely $50m more WW than the awful MoS, which was the beginning of the DCU. Said this, it is clear we will not agree on this topic, so better to wait until late March and see what happens. IMHO, BvS will get closer numbers to Avengers than to MoS.
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TDKR is the last Batman film. It is the only reference we have. For that reason, you can not simply say this is a simple MoS sequel like TASM2 was to TASM. If this film were just another adventure of Superman against another single villain I would not have problems in giving a chance to your prediction. But this is not that case. This is Superman + Batman + WW + Luthor + another villain + etcetera... For instance, Civil War is a sequel to Winter Soldier, a film which even after Avengers effect barely passed $700m WW, just a bit more than MoS, even being quite more praised than MoS. However, I do not see any doubt here about Civil War explosion well beyond 1 billion. Why? because it is not a simple sequel. It is another thing. So, I do not get the doubts about BvS, considering it is EXACTLY the same format than CW.
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Even TASM just dropped $150m from SM3 WW. Your prediction say that Batman is falling $400m WW from TDKR, even more if we consider that TDKR did not have 3D. And that without considering he is not alone in the movie. This is not a Batman movie, nor a Superman one. It is another thing. A team-up film. I am sorry, but the $660-680m prediction is absurd. And don't tell me about overexposition when we will have the 6th Iron Man appearance in 8 years, or the 5th one of Captain America in 5 years, both in Civil War.
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I could understand a 800-900 range if the film is awful and legs are horrible. But to think in the same WW figure for BvS than MoS is extremely low, no matter how you look at it. It is the first time that the two most recognizable SH ever share screen (with a fight between them), the first appearance of other SHs like Wonder Woman, Aquaman or Flash, and Lex Luthor as one of the villains. MoS did a so low amount because of the meh reception and still with that quality, it still opened to $115m in US. I can not see this opening lower than $150-160m just because Batman, as a character, is there. No matters if Batman is Affleck or myself. Batman has set the OW record in US 4 times. And as Bapi has said, maybe a so controversial decision makes that people go just because of curiosity. And it has the whole April month free. MoS had enormous competition. And then you have to add $100m more from China for sure...
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According comingsoon.net, yes, it will have 3D.
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Well, last Joker film was not exactly kid-friendly. Of course, it was a Batman film, but still... and I will dare to argue that both films where Joker appeared beat the OW record I am not saying this will set OW records or something. Just that it has appeal enough to open higher than many think.
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The GA (me included) did not know the characters of GotG and still was able to open to $94m. This has Joker, Will Smith and a Batman cameo, very well known by everyone. If it is well sold, it can open quite higher than that. The potential exists for sure.
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The problem is to consider it a Captain America film. It is the same than considering BvS a Superman film. One is Avengers 2.5 and the other one is Justice League 0.5. We should not compare to CA2 or MOS.
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I firmly think that Suicide Squad will be the surprise of the year. Joker, Quinn, Will Smith, Batman appearance... too many factors. It looks awesome.
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I am IN the club 10 films over billion in 2016, but being more realistic I have this: 1. Civil War: 450/950/1400 2. Batman v Superman: 500/800/1300 3. Finding Dory: 425/850/1275 4. Rogue One: 450/600/1050 5. Fantastic Beasts: 275/750/1025 6. Suicide Squad: 400/600/1000 7. Kung Fu Panda 3: 170/750/920 8. Independence Day 2: 250/600/850 9. Ice Age 5: 150/700/850 10. X-Men: Apocalypse: 225/600/825 11. Alice 2: 200/600/800 12. Moana: 250/500/750 13. Jungle Book: 210/450/660 14. Dr. Strange: 200/400/600 15. The secret life of pets: 240/350/590 16. Bourne 5: 230/350/580 17. Zootopia: 180/400/580 18. Inferno: 160/380/540 19. Ghostbusters: 175/275/450 20. Star Trek: 180/230/410
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I do not know what to say to this...
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If this is able to make $525m that would already be awesome considering the drop in ER. With MJ1 exchange rates, those $525m would mean $575-600m, maybe more. Basically, we would be talking about $150m increase in terms of local currencies in just one year. IMHO, to think beyond $500-525 is quite risky. Never say never, but I do not see it.
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THE GOOD DINOSAUR | 209.1 M overseas | 332.2 M worldwide
peludo replied to kayumanggi's topic in International Box Office
Play big or go home. I think it has a chance too. -
November 6 - 12: 1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens 2. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice 3. Suicide Squad 4. The Good Dinosaur 5. Star Trek Beyond 6. Captain America: Civil War 7. The Hateful Eight 8. Bourne 5 9. The Revenant 10. Doctor Strange
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La Fiesta del Cine has finished. It has been the second biggest edition, behind October 2014: Tuesday: 495,368 adm (708% higher than last week's Tuesday) Wednesday: 781,286 (+210% - Wed is usually the cheaper day of the week) Thursday: 711,202 (+942%) Total: 2,002,546 admissions For the record: October 2014: 2,196,101 May 2015: 1,598,720 Ranking 1. The Martian 2. Hotel Transylvania 2 3. The Intern 4. The last witch hunter 5. Mi gran noche 6. Crimson Peak 7. Black Mass 8. Truman 9. Regression 10. Paranormal Activity
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Yes. That is my feeling. The debate started with the chances of this making 1 billion again. I think that it will need well over $700m OS to reach it since I do not think it will make the same numbers than Skyfall in US. Let's say $250m in US, so it would need $750m OS. If it is able to make those figures it would mean a higher overall attendance than Skyfall, what would be astonishing.
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So you are saying that just in Australia, Spectre would be losing $20m relative to Skyfall. Analysis like this is what I am expecting for those big markets. Thank you Hopefully, Asian markets can compensate what European, Australian or even Latin American countries can lose because the ER factor, and Bond is able to earn again 800 million OS, but I want to see it. The beginning has certainly been encouraging , but it will be very hard to achieve. Anyway, it is going to be a great run to follow.
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China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26
peludo replied to A Marvel Fanboy's topic in China At The Box Office
In 2012, the average blockbuster in China was making about $50m: TDKR, TASM, Skyfall, ... Today, an average blockbuster is landing somewhere between $100-$120m (Hobbit 3, San Andreas, Ant-Man, ...). That is the most logical amount for Spectre, IMHO. I would say about 750m Yuan. -
La Fiesta del Cine is back again. 495,368 admissions were sold on Tuesday. That is higher than the Tuesday of the May's edition (393,000). To put into perspective the number, it is a 708% higher than last week's Tuesday. The top 10 is: 1. The Martian 2. Hotel Transylvania 2 3. The Intern 4. The last witch hunter 5. Mi gran noche (local film) 6. Truman (local film) 7. Crimson Peak 8. Black Mass 9. Regression 10. Paranormal Activity
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I thought it could not reach the billion but it seems that ER is not a so decissive factor this year. The chances for billion are great. Anyway, I prefer to see what happens in other huge Skyfall markets like Germany ($85m), France ($60m), Australia ($50m), Japan ($32m) or Russia ($25m). Some of them are still huge figures to match.
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Maybe I have to reconsider my under billion prediction for Spectre... incredible opening
