peludo

In Spain, it has an easy explanation: because "8 Apellidos Catalanes". They wanted to avoid that competition.

I think they are different cases. You can look at the precedents of each film to see it. JW is the most unexpected for me. I thought that the fever for dinos had gone. Last Jurassic film, JP3, had an average gross and nobody saw this coming. Perfect storm. F7 had the question of what would happen after Walker's death. It had a reasonable boost behaviour in US. But the Chinese boost has been incrediblly unexpected. Relative to Minions, DM2 had already done an enormous amount. I had doubts about the potential, but it is quite clear that the appealing of the franchise come from those little yellow bastards. What will happen with the biggest SH films of the next year? Of course, many of us can be wrong saying 1.2-1.4 billion for each film, but the ingredients are very good. These are not two SH films more. Both include something we have never seen. We have never seen a confrontation between several SH's. One of them is an Avengers film, no matter how it is called. And the other is the return of the biggest SH character. IMHO, those big figures are justified. Another thing is if the films are not good enough and both fail, but the potential is obviously there.

I am not too optimistic. Reviews are horrible and according data of Friday (260k admissions) and Saturday (420k), I do not think that the match had affected too much. I see both figures quite coherent. Saturday is a bigger day than Friday. How much more it could have done if we had not had Clásico, maybe 100k admissions more? We are talking about the sequel of 2nd biggest film ever here. Taking into account how massive was 8AV, how many people watched 8AV 10 days ago on TV (8 million people for a film that we have already seen 18 months ago), and massive promotion, I was seriously thinking in OW record (at least in admissions). I wish you are right, but I do not see a good drop next week. Critics are horrendous.

8 Apellidos Catalanes: €7.6m / 1,117,678 admissions. 3rd biggest local opening ever, behind The Impossible and Torrente 4. Not a record. We should take into account that there was an enormous football match on Saturday (18:15 local time). It could have hurt it a bit. Anyway, many here were expecting more.

For that reason I said that chances are next to 0%, not exactly 0%. Nothing is locked, but data and antecedents do not invite to be optimistic.

Good luck with that. The chances for this to make $300m are next to 0%. Previous installments have done between 2.67 and 2.76 multiplier and, suddenly, this going to jump towards x3... With Star Wars coming within a month, late legs can be cut. This can perfectly finish closer to 250 than to 300.

I do not think this kind of calculation is correct. You can not take the gross made by a film in 2003 and compare it with the size of the market in 2015. Either you adjust the figure made in 2003 to the size of the market in 2015, either you take the 2003 market figures. Taking this case as an example, Brazil grossed $210m in 2003 and US grossed $9.2 billion. In 2003, US market was 43.8 times bigger than Brazilian one. That implies those $9.9m made in 2003 would mean $432m in comparison. You can look in other way. ROTK grossed $9.9m in a market of $210m. That means a 4.7% of the whole market that year. A 4.7% of the whole US market in 2003 is 9,200*0.047 which give us those $432m. So ROTK was bigger in Brazil than in US taking into account the size of the markets that year. You can even look in other way. If Brazilian market has today a size of $850m, a film with the same weight than ROTK in that 2003 market would make today about $40m.

Being fair, I have not heard anywhere that Justice League films are a whole film splitted into two parts. It could perfectly be like Avengers 1 and Age of Ultron: two different stories.

Middle Earth franchise did it.

Yes. Critics do not help. It must be a quite bad film. It can finish doing 40 million less than 8AV.

"8 Apellidos Catalanes" opens to €1.9m / 260,000 admissions on OD (75% of the whole market).

I guess to reach Avatar will depend on how much SW7 will affect to its late legs. Anyway, incredible run.

Not exactly either. BOFA opened on Wednesday and DOS on Friday.

With a difference. Hobbit dropped from first to second part, and third one was able to keep the attendance. MJ2 can drop another $50-60m from MJ1, when it had already dropped $90m from CF.

We have had a huge year with Jurassic World, Minions or Inside out. I find a bit logical a huge flop like this. Every year has their successes and their failures (if we can call a failure a $700m grosser half book). And fans can always blame certain film that will come within a month... Anyway, I would had never imagined that MJ2 could make less than $300m

It is already disappointing nearly everywhere, lack of hype, not excellence critics, MJ1 precedent, ... you have options to choose.

November 20-26: 1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens 2. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice 3. Suicide Squad 4. The Good Dinosaur 5. Star Trek Beyond 6. Captain America: Civil War 7. Doctor Strange 8. The Hateful Eight 9. Bourne 5 10. The Revenant

Spectre 2nd wknd: €1.4m - Cume: €5.1m / 750,000 admissions Skyfall 2nd wknd: €1.78m - Cume: €7.5m / 1,047,000 admissions The only difference is that Skyfall opened on Wednesday, so whose data are after 12 days, instead Spectre, whose data are after 10 days. Anyway, after the 2nd weekend Spectre is well behind Skyfall's.

This chart is very clarifying. Thank you Adding the grosses and admissions of the whole 10 films we get that the average ticket price is $12.95. Can we asume that amount is an accurate average ticket price? It is horrible to try to adjust this market. I found this chart: http://canacine.org.mx/docs/PreciopromediodelboletoAmericaLatina.pdf and considering the huge general inflation of the country, I think that $12.95 figure seems reasonable. But correct me if I am wrong.

IM2 had better reviews than MoS, but nothing special. A 72% on RT is not exactly an extremely well reviewed film. And film's legs show that people did not support that theory. A mere 2.43 multiplier with way less competition than MoS can not be considered a good augure, not only for Avengers, but for nothing. In fact, nobody saw coming the Avengers success, and forecasts and predictions before release were a bit more than half than it finally did. Concerning IM2 and MoS, both films opened exactly equal (128), and although IM2 grossed 20 million more than MoS, we should analyze the competition each film had before claim a better reception. If we consider openers that each film faced we have that IM2 faced Robin Hood ($105m) and Letters to Juliet (53) in the 2nd wknd, Shrek 4 (238) in the 3rd, Sex and the city 2 (95) and Prince of Persia (90) in the 4th, and Get him to the Greek (60) and Killers (47) in the 5th... MoS faced Monsters University (268) and World War Z (202) in the 2nd wknd, The Heat (159) and Whit House Down (73) in the 3rd, Despicable me 2 (368) and Lone Ranger (89) in the 4th, and Grown ups 2 (133) and Pacific Rim (101) in the 5th. Those IM2 competitors opening during the next 4 weeks grossed $688m cume. MoS competitors during the same period grossed $1.393 billion. Many times competition is undervalued saying that each film makes what deserves, no matter what it faces, but to suffer $700m more of competition during the same period can not be dismissed. IMO, BvS has the same chances or more to explode than Avengers taking into account precedents. If the film is awful, then it will make meh numbers, but if it is good enough, the sky is the limit.

ER factor is more important than many people think. During 2014 and this current 2015 the drops have been very strong. Ice Age seemed to be enormous, and in fact in some European countries, it is very big, but not so big as other animated films like Lion King, Nemo, Shrek 2, Frozen or Minions. Anyway, each film has its own peculiarities. I am trying to adjust by inflation those OS figures and have a better overall look. Minions or Inside Out have had certain advantages that Ice Age 4 did not have like 3 years Chinese expansion or an absurd inflation in countries like Argentina or Venezuela, places where 2015 films have done extremely inflated figures compared with films of recent years. Of course, Minions still would be ahead of Ice Age 4, but it is necessary to adjust every factor before saying Minions is $260m bigger than Ice Age OS, because that is not true either. By the way, Ice Age 3 drop is even deeper than IA4's. IA3 would had done today $509m OS without applying inflation, when it registered $690m in 2009. 2008-2011 period is the most benefited by the ER factor, and 2000-2001 the most damaged (at least, in the past 20 years).

The lists I have posted here take into account the current ER and 3D and, as you can see, Phantom Menace adjusts to about 1.75 billion (still working on a more definitive figure). You can take as a good example what has happened with Jurassic franchise this year. Jurassic Park adjusts a bit higher than what Jurassic World has done this year. IMHO, and following the same pattern, SW7 is probable to land somewhere between 1.5 and 1.6 billion. But you can not rule out anything.

Not even close. About $563m. Anyway, since this is just the Spectre thread, we can talk about other films in the thread which already exist about ER matter: http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/18043-adjusting-exchange-rates/

According my data, using today ER's and not applying inflation, Skyfall would have done today about $663m OS. Just for reference, the markets which did more than $10m for Skyfall would be like this: Australia: $50.0m => today would be 34.0 Belgium: 11.2 => 9.4 Brazil: 14 => 7.9 China: 59.2 => 58.3 Denmark: 15.8 => 13.1 France: 60.8 => 49.9 Germany: 85.3 => 70.2 India: 10.9 => 9.0 Italy: 17.1 => 14.2 Japan: 32.5 => 23.5 Netherlands: 25.1 => 20.7 Norway: 13.8 => 9.1 Poland: 10.1 => 8.1 Russia: 25.2 => 11.8 SK: 16.1 => 14.9 Spain: 13.8 => 11.4 Sweden: 17.9 => 13.7 UK: 161.2 => 152.8 I want to clarify that this is an approximation taking an average ER in 2012 during the release months for each market. But I think it is quite close to reality.

ER has dropped a lot since 2012 here too. And in terms in local currency it is still lower too. Maybe the fact that Skyfall was better reviewed or that the villain was Javier Bardem could be the key factors. But with Spain you never know. We are unpredictable in terms of box office.