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MJL

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Everything posted by MJL

  1. And your 50-100 times watching the video counts for 1 view if it was from the same IP address and google account. So, no it’s actually not a stupid argument if you know how YouTube’s algorithms work.
  2. I don’t see how people are believably under predicting IW. I mean it’s quite obviously going to get a bump from BP. Think of it this way: if only 10% of the people who see BP (who have never cared to see a Marvel movie before this) watch IW just because BP is in it....that’s STILL an increase that would never have happened if BP never existed. BP is guaranteed to have an effect on IW. The only way it wouldn’t is if absolutely 0 people who are virgins to the MCU see BP (and we know that’s not the case). IW is guaranteed to be huge. Every single marvel movie so far has been interconnected with the payoff in IW in mind. It’s going to get bumps from all the various marvel fans (ex: GotG fans who don’t care for the Avengers but they’re going because GotG are in it).
  3. No, I absolutely know who RTH is. I've been around the forums since they were originally located at boxofficemojo. What I was saying is that a movie that does 300m domestic and 100m OS is going to be more profitable than a movie doing 100m domestic and 300m OS (everything else remaining equal) under most circumstances. Obviously this depends can be false with a very weak exchange rate on the dollar and some other factor, but those are more extreme cases.
  4. You're both right and wrong at the same time. It's true that OS is definitely important. Any stream of revenue is important to the studio. The point I was making is that each dollar spent domestically benefits the studio more than each dollar spent OS. This isn't something that can be debated because it's fact. This isn't saying that a studio would rather a 200m dom / 200m OS grossing film over a 100m dom / 600m OS one....that's just stupid. But on a per dollar basis...domestic is definitely more important basis than OS. That's why if we compare any two films with approximately the same worldwide gross....the one that made more domestically (all other things equal) will almost always be more profitable. Hell, if this forum was only about profitability of movies we would spend only a fraction of the time discussing box office and tons more time discussing movie merchandising and TV/VoD deals.
  5. A rare post for me and then back to the depths of lurking. I just find it funny that people arguing against Disney films for being PC are the same ones saying we should be politically correct and discuss the accomplishments of illumination studio and more specifically DM3...even if it's just a small part of the forum community that actively follows these films. Now, I personally have nothing against the DM franchise (I like a few of their films. Sure, they generally are less thought provoking than many other studios...but they are still fun nonetheless), but I feel it's useless to gloat about accomplishments of a film if a majority just doesn't care. Instead, create a new topic on the forum discussing this accomplishment where others who share those views could discuss it instead of trying to persuade others it's a top box office story this year. My opinion is that it's not for a few reasons: 1. It was expected: Everyone knew DM3 was going to be big worldwide. Box office stories for a year aren't generally about doing slightly more than what's already projected to happen. 2. The way it attained that gross wasn't extraordinary: It's all about legs. The drops weekend to weekend were comparable to other films we have seen. It would have definitely been a story if it had legs like Frozen, or if it had a dramatic shift in where it grossed what it did. This brings me to #3 3. OS really DOESN'T matter as much as Domestic: There's a reason why people focus more on the gross in the US and Canada and less on OS markets. It's because it actually does matter more for a studios bottom line. A higher domestic gross is much more profitable for a studio than a high OS gross (Revenue sharing with US theaters aren't hit with the import tax levies and other fees that OS is hit with. Plus, this is even more dramatic if a large part of the OS gross comes from China). It also doesn't hurt that most individuals focus on what happens where they live versus other countries (And a majority of forum members are from North America last I checked).
  6. What's going to be very telling is tomorrow's drop. We might be looking at great WoM combined with some spillover to get between a 50-60% drop tomorrow. BatB is so odd to predict since there are cases for a small drop (what I mentioned above) versus a larger drop (since it's also partially playing as a family film). Questions...questions
  7. The trajectory of BatB is insane!!! It goes from having the 19th largest Friday to having the 4th largest Saturday and now to stay solid with the 4th largest Sunday (it's Sunday is even more so impressive since the top 3 above BatB were all when there was no school the following day).
  8. He posted a picture saying tons more people die from falling out of their seats than shark attacks....so I'm assuming a big number for Sunday
  9. HOW ABOUT THIS....change Ariel's backstory that she is a survivor of ovarian cancer and MAKE HER BALD!!!! There, now you could all imagine what color hair she actually had!!!! Now, @Rth and the Beast.....make us fall from our seats!!!!! ???
  10. Guys, could we all just shut up about what color Ariel's hair should be when our lord-and-savior @Rth and the Beast has graced us with his presence to give us news!!!!!
  11. Wait, Valerian is ACTUALLY a movie? I thought it was just what a person on Valium is called.....huh. You learn something new every day!!! ?
  12. Well, since the total Movie-going population for this study (done in 2014) was 229 million, Ca is about 11% and Tx is like 9%
  13. Variety updated: "Disney indicated on Friday afternoon that it expects the live-action musical to finish in a range between $140 million to $155 million, before raising projections to $155 million to $165 million in the evening. “Beauty and the Beast” had already banked nearly $40 million at noon PDT with pre-sales and a stellar $16.3 million from Thursday night previews. The first-day total approached $60 million to $63 million in the evening."
  14. They already set it up with Dr Wu escaping the island with embryos and the theme of the militarization of dinos. It would have to be set a few years down the road but it would make perfect sense
  15. Jurassic World 2 would be great if they just get off that damn island (and I'm not talking about a lowly T Rex looking for it's baby). Have it be set where the dinos are retaking their natural place in the world and we have to coexist or die
  16. “Beauty and the Beast” had already banked nearly $40 million at noon PDT with pre-sales and a stellar $16.3 million from Thursday night previews. The first-day total could approach $60 million. So, they're only expecting $20 million more from noon PDT onwards? That doesn't seem right even considering some pre-sales are for this evening..
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