Argentina Box Office - Minions: first movie ever to do $35m+!!!

[Hei25]

Weekly Estimates (14-20 DEC)

 

#	MOVIE	Week	ADMISSIONS	SCREENS	% CHANGE LW	TOTAL
1	Star Wars: Los últimos jedi	New	397.183	502		397.183
2	Justice League	5th	47.017	108	-42%	910.145
3	Daddy's Home 2	3rd	42.864	116	-30%	198.652
4	Happy Death Day	3rd	29.411	86	-45%	177.741
5	The Star	2nd	28.863	147	-18%	64.057
6	Wonder	3rd	28.287	70	-29%	120.840
7	Bad Mom Christmas	New	26.099	132		26.099
8	Murder on the Orient Express	6th	18.742	40	-29%	319.479
9	The Foreigner	2nd	5.684	38	-77%	30.655
10	Veronica	2nd	5.502	30	-75%	27.776

 

 

SW VII  1st Week = 551.693 (+ previews = Total 575.045)

SW VIII 1st Week = 397.183

 

The gap btw Episode VII and VIII still increasing from 17% on OD to 24% on OW, now it's pacing 28% behind after first week.

SW VII had a -58% 2nd weekend hold in 2015, let's see how SW VIII holds.

 

In Argentina we celebrate Christmas on 24th Dec night mostly in family, same on 25th. So Sunday 24th and monday 25th many cinemas will be closed and almost any ppl will attend to see a movie. So I expect a steep fall for all the movies (over 60% easily)

 

Edited December 21, 2017 by Hei25

[Hei25]

Thursday 22nd Dec. Estimates:

 

1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 21.743 adm. (-71%) = Total 419.223 adm.

2. Daddy's Home 2 3.929 adm. (+29%) = Total 202.760 adm.

3. Justice League 3.127 (-10%) = Total 913.405 adm.

4. The Star 2.404 (+17,5%) = Total 66.550 adm

...

7. The Disaster Artist 1.592 *NEW

 

There's no way to compare SWII and SWIII 2nd thursday, because TFA 2nd  thursday fell on 24/12 and sold a mere 2.900 admissions.

 

[Hei25]

Week (21st - 27th dec) Estimates:

 

#	MOVIE	Week	ADMISSIONS	SCREENS	% CHANGE LW	TOTAL
1	Star Wars: The Last Jedi	2nd	155.564	430	-61%	553.044
2	Daddy's Home 2	4th	27.620	110	-36%	226.451
3	Justice League	6th	25.771	98	-45%	936.049
4	Wonder	4th	20.374	86	-28%	141.315
5	Happy Death Day	4th	17.673	76	-40%	195.476
6	The Star	3rd	16.898	147	-42%	81.044
7	Be Afraid	New	12.581	52		12.581
8	The Disaster Artist	New	12.416	59		12.416
9	Murder on the Orient Express	7th	12.286	34	-34%	331.686
10	Bad Moms Christmas	2nd	9.403	93	-64%	35.579

 

 

Week is over. 

SWIII fell hard compared to TFA (-51%) and RO (-47%). Right now is pacing 36% behind TFA. 1M admissions are without a doubt out of reach and even 900k are starting to look hard to match. So if it happends it will be finishing in the 16th place over the year just over Logan and behind Thor or Justice League (both are fighting for the 14th place).

 

 

THURSDAY 28TH WIDE RELEASES:

-The Greatest Showman

-Jeepers Creepers 3

 

Edited December 29, 2017 by Hei25

[Hei25]

2017 Became the 3rd best year in terms of admissions, behind 2015 and 2016 

 

Rank (2010-....)

 

1. 2015 = 50.495.000

2. 2016 = 48.807.571

3. 2017 = 47.598.215

4. 2013 = 46.942.800

5. 2012 = 46.380.012

6. 2014 = 44.096.000

7. 2011 = 42.400.000

8. 2010 = 38.245.775

 

2018 could be a good year, but World Cup may affect the two most attended months (June-July), so it will be clever to compare what could happend with 2010 (38M) and 2014 (44M). I think that both marks will be outselled but I don't expect it to join the podium.

 

[Hei25]

 Week Estimates (28 Dec 2017 - 03 Ene 2018)

 

#	MOVIE	Week	ADMISSIONS	SCREENS	% CHANGE LW	TOTAL
1	Star Wars: The Last Jedi	3rd	106.645	327	-32%	661.295
2	The Greatest Showman	New	72.351	190	-	72.351
3	Jeepers Creepers	New	30.726	92	-	30.726
4	Daddy's Home 2	5th	28.968	105	+4%	255.751
5	Justice League	7th	24.752	82	-4%	961.052
6	Wonder	5th	16.718	59	-18%	158.184
7	Happy Death Day	5th	13.816	57	-23%	209.532
8	The Star	4th	13.520	122	-21%	94.996
9	Murder on the Orient Express	8th	13.506	35	+10%	345.432
10	The Disaster Artist	2nd	6.719	34	-46%	19.204

 

 

The final week of 2017 (half of 2018) is over, TLJ keeps falling strong from TFA, now is pacing 39% behind, with no stabilization on the sight it may fall shor of the 800k admissions. Let's see if after the xmas and new year effect, it can have strong hold this weekend, something that may not happend thanks the new openeres.

Justice League hold way better than I was expecting, and will outpace Thor Ragnarok at the end, (it result still being really poor, -25~28% from BvS) and has a little chance depending on how much screens keeps it has a little chance to reach the 1M milestone.

MotOE, even with it's final number wihich seems doesn't seem very special, it developed one of the best legs of the year so far, and rounded a respectable number.

Daddy's Home 2, with it's last week increase outgrossed it's first entry. So we can say it's a good result.

 

2018 set to begin with the new wide releases:

-Jumanji: In the Jungle (317 Screens)

-Ferdinand 

-"27: El Club de los malditos"

-Wonder Wheel

 

With this new releases, 2018 is set to a strong start. Nº1 will be a battle btw Jumanji and Ferdinand.

 

 

Edited January 5, 2018 by Hei25

[Hei25]

Thursday 04th January Estimates:

 

1. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle 47.465 Adm *NEW

2. Ferdinand 20.353 Adm. *New

3. Stars Wars: The Last Jedi 7.205 Adm. (-59%) Total = 668.856 Adm.

4. The Greatest Showman 6.427 (-45%) Total = 79.001 Adm. 

5. Wonder Wheel 3.986 Adm. *New

 

2018 Releases started, and so the summer holidays. School is off 'till 05 march, so weekdays will be stronger than usual.

 

Impressive start for Jumanji, ready to drop already one of the possible biggest OW of the year. And with the help of holiday season it has high chances to top the 1 M admissions milestone.

Soft start for Ferdinand but not bad at all, now will depends on legs, but it will be affected by CoCo on next week.

Stars Wars VIII hold seems to be steep, but it will have a clean weekend since it's opening weekend, so it may recover and held weel over the wntire week.

 

[Hei25]

2017 HIGHEST OPENING WEEKENDS (100.000+ ADMISSIONS~)

 

 

1	Fate of Furious	969.198
2	Despicable Me 3	742.377
3	Beuty and the Beast	654.827
4	It (2017)	648.708
5	Pirates of the Caribbean 5	419.925
6	Anabelle 2: Creation	415.700
7	Spiderman Homecoming	316.812
8	Cars 3	316.359
9	Justice League	303.684
10	Thor: Ragnarok	302.733
11	Transformers: The Last Knight	295.056
12	El Futbol o Yo (*)	289.513
13	Star Wars VIII: The Last Jedi	282.235
14	Boss Baby	268.606
15	Fifty Shades Darker	265.872
16	Guardians of Galaxy Vol. 2	258.466
17	Logan	246.448
18	Sing	241.382
19	La Cordillera (*)	228.727
20	Moana	225.803
21	The Mummy	212.693
22	War of the Planet of The Apes	190.868
23	Mamá se fue de Viaje (*)	181.686
24	Wonder Woman	172.744
25	Nieve Negra (*)	171.619
26	Kong: Skull Island	170.318
27	Moises y los Diez Mandamientos	169.533
28	The Smurfs 3	167.988
29	Emoji The Movie	140.345
30	Los Padecientes (*)	133.786
31	Geostorm	129.332
32	Dunkirk	128.296
33	Assassin's Creed	127.772
34	Los que Aman Odian (*)	124.507
35	Rings	116.656
36	Lego Batman The Movie	108.950

 

(*) = Local Movies

 

 

 

[Hei25]

Jumanji first friday estimates comparisson:

 

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle = 64.810 Adm *NEW (+31% from OD)* = Total 112.275

 

Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Thursday	75.100
Friday	51.500	-31%
Justice League
Thursday	55.100
Friday	54.100	-2%
Thor Ragnarok
Thursday	49.100
Friday	56.400	+15%

 

 

Jumanji is heading to a strong OW, over 330.000 adminisions probably. In 2015 Dwayne Johnson's San Andreas had a 245.949 Adm. OW and finished with an impressive 973.966 total.

 

 

Edited January 6, 2018 by Hei25

[averagejoe]

What can Coco expect when it opens next week?

[Hei25]

4 hours ago, averagejoe said:

What can Coco expect when it opens next week?

It hasn't the buzz that Moana has lastima year (1.47M admissions), so I can imagine something btw 1.2 and 1.3, but here Pixar movies tend be loved so if WOM is good it has chances to beat those numbers. Also have in mind that there won't be any movie taking to much screens from Coco 'till mid february.

Edited January 7, 2018 by Hei25

[Hei25]

WEEKEND (04-10 JAN) ESTIMATES:

 

#	MOVIE	ADMISSIONS	SCREENS	% F/ LW	TOTAL
1	Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle	265.048	391	-	265.048
2	Ferdinand	115.238	353	-	115.238
3	Star Wars: The Last Jedi	43.803	137	-29%	705.488
4	The Greatest Showman	40.430	173	-1%	113.031
5	Wonder Wheel	33.294	100	-	33.294
6	Jeepers Creepers 3	16.008	76	-7%	46.780
7	"27: El Club de los Malditos"	11.289	89	-	11.289
8	Daddy's Home 2	8.395	54	-47%	264.286
9	Murder on the Orient Express	7.682	23	-2%	353.195
10	Justice League	5.558	30	-56%	966.694

 

 

Strong OW for Jumanji, despite being way below from what I was expecting. Weekdays will be strong I suppouse, so let's wait how well it's legs develops.

Ferdinand had a so/so OW, and having in mind that Coco will be released on next Thursday, I expect it to fade away really fast.

TLJ will finish this week with strong hold (-15%), despite it finishing over 800k admissions seems to be very dificult.

Murder on the Orient Express keeps holding amazing afther 9 weeks in release, unfortunatelly it's low OW prevent it from being a succes, but it's legs are for sure amazing.

Justice League lost a lot of screens, with that, all chances to reach the 1M milestone are gone, but at least it outgrossed Thor Ragnarok becoming the 2nd highest grossing CBM released in 2017 behind SM:HC.

 

Edited January 8, 2018 by Hei25

[Hei25]

Weekly Estimates (4th - 10th Jan):

 

#	MOVIE	Week	ADMISSIONS	SCREENS	% CHANGE LW	TOTAL
1	Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle	New	400.532	400	-	400.532
2	Ferdinand	New	180.900	359	-	180.900
3	Star Wars: The Last Jedi	4th	66.161	139	-38%	727.850
4	The Greatest Showman	2nd	62.493	178	-14%	135.094
5	Wonder Wheel	New	42.230	101	-	42.230
6	Jeepers Creepers 3	2nd	23.419	77	-24%	54.191
7	27: El Club de los Malditos	New	15.901	90	-	15.901
8	Daddy's Home 2	6th	12.794	55	-56%	268.685
9	Murder on the Orient Express	9th	10.922	23	-20%	356.435
10	Justice League	8th	8.501	30	-66%	969.637

 

Strong weekdays thanks the holidays, these holidays aren't like the winter one's that can drop huge numbers on weekdays, but are stronger than normal weekdays and will last 'till the first days of march.

 

Today Wide Releases:

-Coco (336 Screens)

-Downsizing

-No Dormiras (Local Movie)

 

Coco's Journey begins here in Argentina, let's see how well it does.

Edited January 12, 2018 by Hei25

[lor15]

68.230 adm for COCO opening day, I think that's great, the weather is really hot, bad for cinemas

[averagejoe]

17 minutes ago, lor15 said:

68.230 adm for COCO opening day, I think that's great, the weather is really hot, bad for cinemas

How does that compare to other animated films?

[Hei25]

Thursday 11th January:

 

1. Coco 68.230 Adm. *New

2. Jumanji: Welcome to The Jungle 26.633 Adm. (-46%) Total = 428.057

3. Ferdinand 6.468 Adm. (-70%) Total = 188.287

4. No Dormiras 6.102 Adm. *New

...

6. Downsizing 3.184 Adm. *New

 

 

Great start for Coco (22% over Moana which opened on 19th January 2017, and had 225.803 OW), friday and saturday weather stiill very warm but with high chances of rain, something that could help Coco to achieve a powerfull OW close or even over 300k admissions.

Jumanji holds very well despite Coco's big number and the loss of screens, I expect it to be the first millionaire movie of the year.

Ferdinand felt the hit of Coco and went hardly down, it may recover on next days but not enought to be a low hit.

TLJ fell to the 7th spot and it's locked that it wont reach the 800k mark, a 43% below TFA.

 

Edited January 12, 2018 by Hei25

[Hei25]

January 11th - 14th Weekend Estimates:

 

#	MOVIE	Week	ADMISSIONS	SCREENS	% CHANGE LW	TOTAL
1	Coco	New	409.717	392	-	409.997
2	Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle	2nd	211.797	338	-21%	614.247
3	Ferdinand	2nd	54.177	202	-54%	236.649
4	No Dormiras	New	47.931	181	-	47.931
5	Downsizing	New	24.638	91	-	24.638
6	The Greatest Showman	3rd	24.465	55	-40%	159.926
7	Star Wars: The Last Jedi	5th	17.943	57	-59%	745.815
8	Wonder Wheel	2nd	17.022	44	-49%	59.526
9	Murder on the Orient Express	10th	6.389	15	-17%	362.824
10	27: El Club de los Malditos	2nd	5.122	18	-55%	21.050

 

Strong weekend lead by huge OW for Coco, I'll make a little comparison below to see how big it was. Also an amazing hold for Jumanji. TLJ keps falling and falling and once again it didn't hold wel and it's final estimates are going down. And once again I'm impressed by MotOE that keeps holding in the top 10 with very strong holds with just a little amount of screens.

 

January Animated Hits since 2010 (1.000.000+ adm)

 

Movie	OW	TOTAL	Multi
Wreck it Ralph	210.068	1.170.478	5,57
Moana	225.803	1.474.056	6,53
Sing	241.382	1.121.598	4,65
Tangled	299.308	1.620.000	5,41
Frozen	352.711	1.943.239	5,51
		Avg,	5.53

 

Using form the lower multiplier to the avg., Coco's total can go from 1.880.000 to 2.230.000 admissions, if Coco can reach Moana's multi it can go as high as 2.640.000 admissions. Any of those final numbers will make Coco a contender for the most attended film of the year.

 

 

Edited January 15, 2018 by Hei25
Estimates Update

[Hei25]

January 11th - 17th Week Estimates:

 

#	MOVIE	Week	ADMISSIONS	SCREENS	% CHANGE LW	TOTAL
1	Coco	New	644.922	395	-	645.202
2	Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle	2nd	317.444	343	-21%	719.894
3	Ferdinand	2nd	85.236	204	-53%	267.708
4	No Dormiras	New	69.987	181	-	47.987
5	The Greatest Showman	3rd	35.634	56	-43%	171.095
6	Downsizing	New	32.927	91	-	32.927
7	Star Wars: The Last Jedi	5th	28.099	57	-58%	755.971
8	Wonder Wheel	2nd	21.921	45	-48%	64.425
9	Murder on the Orient Express	10th	9.120	16	-16%	365.555
10	27: El Club de los Malditos	2nd	7.070	19	-56%	22.998

 

Coco: Excelent first week, on next post I'll make a tiny comparation with January Animated Hits.

Jumanji: Amazing hold on 2nd week, 1M admissions is more than locked and now It's looking for a total arround 1.1-1.2 M a massive result.

Ferdinand: Felt the hit from Coco's performance, but let's see if it can manage to recover some power and at least reach the 400.000 admissions.

No Dormiras: had the highest OW for a local horror movie, and now it's heading to reach the 100.000 milestone to become the highest local horror movie ever.

 

 

Today's (Thursday 18th) Wide releases:

-Las Grietas de Jara (Local movie, likely to be the highest opener of the weekend)

-Insidious: The Last Key (will battle for the highest opener)

-The Commuter (128 Screens)

-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (82 screens)

 

 

Edited January 18, 2018 by Hei25

[Hei25]

January Animated Hits since 2010 (1.000.000++ admissions):

 

	Wreck it Ralph	Moana	Sing*	Tangled	Frozen	Coco
Opening Weekend	210.068	225.803	241.382	299.308	352.711	409.717
1st Wk  Weekdays	148.555	164.584	138.907	209.265	229.537	235.205
1st Week Total	358.623	390.387	380.289	508.579	582.248	644.922
2nd WKND	126.838 (-40%)	154.422 (--32%)	170.021 (-30%)	190.477 (-36%)	243.617 (-31%)	?
Total	1.170.478	1.474.056	1.121.598	1.620.000	1.943.239	?

 

*Sing had 3 days of previews with a total of 96.848, so it's total after first week was 477.137 admissions.

Edited January 18, 2018 by Hei25

[lor15]

I hope COCO break 2 mill admissions, it's an amazing movie, I think my favourite Pixar movie ever

[averagejoe]

Any early numbers of Coco's second weekend?