Hei25 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 (edited) Weekly Estimates (14-20 DEC) # MOVIE Week ADMISSIONS SCREENS % CHANGE LW TOTAL 1 Star Wars: Los últimos jedi New 397.183 502 397.183 2 Justice League 5th 47.017 108 -42% 910.145 3 Daddy's Home 2 3rd 42.864 116 -30% 198.652 4 Happy Death Day 3rd 29.411 86 -45% 177.741 5 The Star 2nd 28.863 147 -18% 64.057 6 Wonder 3rd 28.287 70 -29% 120.840 7 Bad Mom Christmas New 26.099 132 26.099 8 Murder on the Orient Express 6th 18.742 40 -29% 319.479 9 The Foreigner 2nd 5.684 38 -77% 30.655 10 Veronica 2nd 5.502 30 -75% 27.776 SW VII 1st Week = 551.693 (+ previews = Total 575.045) SW VIII 1st Week = 397.183 The gap btw Episode VII and VIII still increasing from 17% on OD to 24% on OW, now it's pacing 28% behind after first week. SW VII had a -58% 2nd weekend hold in 2015, let's see how SW VIII holds. In Argentina we celebrate Christmas on 24th Dec night mostly in family, same on 25th. So Sunday 24th and monday 25th many cinemas will be closed and almost any ppl will attend to see a movie. So I expect a steep fall for all the movies (over 60% easily) Edited December 21, 2017 by Hei25 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hei25 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Thursday 22nd Dec. Estimates: 1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 21.743 adm. (-71%) = Total 419.223 adm. 2. Daddy's Home 2 3.929 adm. (+29%) = Total 202.760 adm. 3. Justice League 3.127 (-10%) = Total 913.405 adm. 4. The Star 2.404 (+17,5%) = Total 66.550 adm ... 7. The Disaster Artist 1.592 *NEW There's no way to compare SWII and SWIII 2nd thursday, because TFA 2nd thursday fell on 24/12 and sold a mere 2.900 admissions. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hei25 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 (edited) Week (21st - 27th dec) Estimates: # MOVIE Week ADMISSIONS SCREENS % CHANGE LW TOTAL 1 Star Wars: The Last Jedi 2nd 155.564 430 -61% 553.044 2 Daddy's Home 2 4th 27.620 110 -36% 226.451 3 Justice League 6th 25.771 98 -45% 936.049 4 Wonder 4th 20.374 86 -28% 141.315 5 Happy Death Day 4th 17.673 76 -40% 195.476 6 The Star 3rd 16.898 147 -42% 81.044 7 Be Afraid New 12.581 52 12.581 8 The Disaster Artist New 12.416 59 12.416 9 Murder on the Orient Express 7th 12.286 34 -34% 331.686 10 Bad Moms Christmas 2nd 9.403 93 -64% 35.579 Week is over. SWIII fell hard compared to TFA (-51%) and RO (-47%). Right now is pacing 36% behind TFA. 1M admissions are without a doubt out of reach and even 900k are starting to look hard to match. So if it happends it will be finishing in the 16th place over the year just over Logan and behind Thor or Justice League (both are fighting for the 14th place). THURSDAY 28TH WIDE RELEASES: -The Greatest Showman -Jeepers Creepers 3 Edited December 29, 2017 by Hei25 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hei25 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2017 Became the 3rd best year in terms of admissions, behind 2015 and 2016 Rank (2010-....) 1. 2015 = 50.495.000 2. 2016 = 48.807.571 3. 2017 = 47.598.215 4. 2013 = 46.942.800 5. 2012 = 46.380.012 6. 2014 = 44.096.000 7. 2011 = 42.400.000 8. 2010 = 38.245.775 2018 could be a good year, but World Cup may affect the two most attended months (June-July), so it will be clever to compare what could happend with 2010 (38M) and 2014 (44M). I think that both marks will be outselled but I don't expect it to join the podium. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hei25 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 (edited) Week Estimates (28 Dec 2017 - 03 Ene 2018) # MOVIE Week ADMISSIONS SCREENS % CHANGE LW TOTAL 1 Star Wars: The Last Jedi 3rd 106.645 327 -32% 661.295 2 The Greatest Showman New 72.351 190 - 72.351 3 Jeepers Creepers New 30.726 92 - 30.726 4 Daddy's Home 2 5th 28.968 105 +4% 255.751 5 Justice League 7th 24.752 82 -4% 961.052 6 Wonder 5th 16.718 59 -18% 158.184 7 Happy Death Day 5th 13.816 57 -23% 209.532 8 The Star 4th 13.520 122 -21% 94.996 9 Murder on the Orient Express 8th 13.506 35 +10% 345.432 10 The Disaster Artist 2nd 6.719 34 -46% 19.204 The final week of 2017 (half of 2018) is over, TLJ keeps falling strong from TFA, now is pacing 39% behind, with no stabilization on the sight it may fall shor of the 800k admissions. Let's see if after the xmas and new year effect, it can have strong hold this weekend, something that may not happend thanks the new openeres. Justice League hold way better than I was expecting, and will outpace Thor Ragnarok at the end, (it result still being really poor, -25~28% from BvS) and has a little chance depending on how much screens keeps it has a little chance to reach the 1M milestone. MotOE, even with it's final number wihich seems doesn't seem very special, it developed one of the best legs of the year so far, and rounded a respectable number. Daddy's Home 2, with it's last week increase outgrossed it's first entry. So we can say it's a good result. 2018 set to begin with the new wide releases: -Jumanji: In the Jungle (317 Screens) -Ferdinand -"27: El Club de los malditos" -Wonder Wheel With this new releases, 2018 is set to a strong start. Nº1 will be a battle btw Jumanji and Ferdinand. Edited January 5, 2018 by Hei25 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hei25 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Thursday 04th January Estimates: 1. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle 47.465 Adm *NEW 2. Ferdinand 20.353 Adm. *New 3. Stars Wars: The Last Jedi 7.205 Adm. (-59%) Total = 668.856 Adm. 4. The Greatest Showman 6.427 (-45%) Total = 79.001 Adm. 5. Wonder Wheel 3.986 Adm. *New 2018 Releases started, and so the summer holidays. School is off 'till 05 march, so weekdays will be stronger than usual. Impressive start for Jumanji, ready to drop already one of the possible biggest OW of the year. And with the help of holiday season it has high chances to top the 1 M admissions milestone. Soft start for Ferdinand but not bad at all, now will depends on legs, but it will be affected by CoCo on next week. Stars Wars VIII hold seems to be steep, but it will have a clean weekend since it's opening weekend, so it may recover and held weel over the wntire week. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hei25 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 2017 HIGHEST OPENING WEEKENDS (100.000+ ADMISSIONS~) 1 Fate of Furious 969.198 2 Despicable Me 3 742.377 3 Beuty and the Beast 654.827 4 It (2017) 648.708 5 Pirates of the Caribbean 5 419.925 6 Anabelle 2: Creation 415.700 7 Spiderman Homecoming 316.812 8 Cars 3 316.359 9 Justice League 303.684 10 Thor: Ragnarok 302.733 11 Transformers: The Last Knight 295.056 12 El Futbol o Yo (*) 289.513 13 Star Wars VIII: The Last Jedi 282.235 14 Boss Baby 268.606 15 Fifty Shades Darker 265.872 16 Guardians of Galaxy Vol. 2 258.466 17 Logan 246.448 18 Sing 241.382 19 La Cordillera (*) 228.727 20 Moana 225.803 21 The Mummy 212.693 22 War of the Planet of The Apes 190.868 23 Mamá se fue de Viaje (*) 181.686 24 Wonder Woman 172.744 25 Nieve Negra (*) 171.619 26 Kong: Skull Island 170.318 27 Moises y los Diez Mandamientos 169.533 28 The Smurfs 3 167.988 29 Emoji The Movie 140.345 30 Los Padecientes (*) 133.786 31 Geostorm 129.332 32 Dunkirk 128.296 33 Assassin's Creed 127.772 34 Los que Aman Odian (*) 124.507 35 Rings 116.656 36 Lego Batman The Movie 108.950 (*) = Local Movies 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hei25 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 (edited) Jumanji first friday estimates comparisson: Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle = 64.810 Adm *NEW (+31% from OD)* = Total 112.275 Star Wars: The Last Jedi Thursday 75.100 Friday 51.500 -31% Justice League Thursday 55.100 Friday 54.100 -2% Thor Ragnarok Thursday 49.100 Friday 56.400 +15% Jumanji is heading to a strong OW, over 330.000 adminisions probably. In 2015 Dwayne Johnson's San Andreas had a 245.949 Adm. OW and finished with an impressive 973.966 total. Edited January 6, 2018 by Hei25 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
averagejoe Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 What can Coco expect when it opens next week? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hei25 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 (edited) 4 hours ago, averagejoe said: What can Coco expect when it opens next week? It hasn't the buzz that Moana has lastima year (1.47M admissions), so I can imagine something btw 1.2 and 1.3, but here Pixar movies tend be loved so if WOM is good it has chances to beat those numbers. Also have in mind that there won't be any movie taking to much screens from Coco 'till mid february. Edited January 7, 2018 by Hei25 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hei25 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 (edited) WEEKEND (04-10 JAN) ESTIMATES: # MOVIE ADMISSIONS SCREENS % F/ LW TOTAL 1 Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle 265.048 391 - 265.048 2 Ferdinand 115.238 353 - 115.238 3 Star Wars: The Last Jedi 43.803 137 -29% 705.488 4 The Greatest Showman 40.430 173 -1% 113.031 5 Wonder Wheel 33.294 100 - 33.294 6 Jeepers Creepers 3 16.008 76 -7% 46.780 7 "27: El Club de los Malditos" 11.289 89 - 11.289 8 Daddy's Home 2 8.395 54 -47% 264.286 9 Murder on the Orient Express 7.682 23 -2% 353.195 10 Justice League 5.558 30 -56% 966.694 Strong OW for Jumanji, despite being way below from what I was expecting. Weekdays will be strong I suppouse, so let's wait how well it's legs develops. Ferdinand had a so/so OW, and having in mind that Coco will be released on next Thursday, I expect it to fade away really fast. TLJ will finish this week with strong hold (-15%), despite it finishing over 800k admissions seems to be very dificult. Murder on the Orient Express keeps holding amazing afther 9 weeks in release, unfortunatelly it's low OW prevent it from being a succes, but it's legs are for sure amazing. Justice League lost a lot of screens, with that, all chances to reach the 1M milestone are gone, but at least it outgrossed Thor Ragnarok becoming the 2nd highest grossing CBM released in 2017 behind SM:HC. Edited January 8, 2018 by Hei25 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hei25 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 (edited) Weekly Estimates (4th - 10th Jan): # MOVIE Week ADMISSIONS SCREENS % CHANGE LW TOTAL 1 Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle New 400.532 400 - 400.532 2 Ferdinand New 180.900 359 - 180.900 3 Star Wars: The Last Jedi 4th 66.161 139 -38% 727.850 4 The Greatest Showman 2nd 62.493 178 -14% 135.094 5 Wonder Wheel New 42.230 101 - 42.230 6 Jeepers Creepers 3 2nd 23.419 77 -24% 54.191 7 27: El Club de los Malditos New 15.901 90 - 15.901 8 Daddy's Home 2 6th 12.794 55 -56% 268.685 9 Murder on the Orient Express 9th 10.922 23 -20% 356.435 10 Justice League 8th 8.501 30 -66% 969.637 Strong weekdays thanks the holidays, these holidays aren't like the winter one's that can drop huge numbers on weekdays, but are stronger than normal weekdays and will last 'till the first days of march. Today Wide Releases: -Coco (336 Screens) -Downsizing -No Dormiras (Local Movie) Coco's Journey begins here in Argentina, let's see how well it does. Edited January 12, 2018 by Hei25 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lor15 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 68.230 adm for COCO opening day, I think that's great, the weather is really hot, bad for cinemas Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
averagejoe Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 17 minutes ago, lor15 said: 68.230 adm for COCO opening day, I think that's great, the weather is really hot, bad for cinemas How does that compare to other animated films? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hei25 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 (edited) Thursday 11th January: 1. Coco 68.230 Adm. *New 2. Jumanji: Welcome to The Jungle 26.633 Adm. (-46%) Total = 428.057 3. Ferdinand 6.468 Adm. (-70%) Total = 188.287 4. No Dormiras 6.102 Adm. *New ... 6. Downsizing 3.184 Adm. *New Great start for Coco (22% over Moana which opened on 19th January 2017, and had 225.803 OW), friday and saturday weather stiill very warm but with high chances of rain, something that could help Coco to achieve a powerfull OW close or even over 300k admissions. Jumanji holds very well despite Coco's big number and the loss of screens, I expect it to be the first millionaire movie of the year. Ferdinand felt the hit of Coco and went hardly down, it may recover on next days but not enought to be a low hit. TLJ fell to the 7th spot and it's locked that it wont reach the 800k mark, a 43% below TFA. Edited January 12, 2018 by Hei25 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hei25 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 (edited) January 11th - 14th Weekend Estimates: # MOVIE Week ADMISSIONS SCREENS % CHANGE LW TOTAL 1 Coco New 409.717 392 - 409.997 2 Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle 2nd 211.797 338 -21% 614.247 3 Ferdinand 2nd 54.177 202 -54% 236.649 4 No Dormiras New 47.931 181 - 47.931 5 Downsizing New 24.638 91 - 24.638 6 The Greatest Showman 3rd 24.465 55 -40% 159.926 7 Star Wars: The Last Jedi 5th 17.943 57 -59% 745.815 8 Wonder Wheel 2nd 17.022 44 -49% 59.526 9 Murder on the Orient Express 10th 6.389 15 -17% 362.824 10 27: El Club de los Malditos 2nd 5.122 18 -55% 21.050 Strong weekend lead by huge OW for Coco, I'll make a little comparison below to see how big it was. Also an amazing hold for Jumanji. TLJ keps falling and falling and once again it didn't hold wel and it's final estimates are going down. And once again I'm impressed by MotOE that keeps holding in the top 10 with very strong holds with just a little amount of screens. January Animated Hits since 2010 (1.000.000+ adm) Movie OW TOTAL Multi Wreck it Ralph 210.068 1.170.478 5,57 Moana 225.803 1.474.056 6,53 Sing 241.382 1.121.598 4,65 Tangled 299.308 1.620.000 5,41 Frozen 352.711 1.943.239 5,51 Avg, 5.53 Using form the lower multiplier to the avg., Coco's total can go from 1.880.000 to 2.230.000 admissions, if Coco can reach Moana's multi it can go as high as 2.640.000 admissions. Any of those final numbers will make Coco a contender for the most attended film of the year. Edited January 15, 2018 by Hei25 Estimates Update 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hei25 Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 (edited) January 11th - 17th Week Estimates: # MOVIE Week ADMISSIONS SCREENS % CHANGE LW TOTAL 1 Coco New 644.922 395 - 645.202 2 Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle 2nd 317.444 343 -21% 719.894 3 Ferdinand 2nd 85.236 204 -53% 267.708 4 No Dormiras New 69.987 181 - 47.987 5 The Greatest Showman 3rd 35.634 56 -43% 171.095 6 Downsizing New 32.927 91 - 32.927 7 Star Wars: The Last Jedi 5th 28.099 57 -58% 755.971 8 Wonder Wheel 2nd 21.921 45 -48% 64.425 9 Murder on the Orient Express 10th 9.120 16 -16% 365.555 10 27: El Club de los Malditos 2nd 7.070 19 -56% 22.998 Coco: Excelent first week, on next post I'll make a tiny comparation with January Animated Hits. Jumanji: Amazing hold on 2nd week, 1M admissions is more than locked and now It's looking for a total arround 1.1-1.2 M a massive result. Ferdinand: Felt the hit from Coco's performance, but let's see if it can manage to recover some power and at least reach the 400.000 admissions. No Dormiras: had the highest OW for a local horror movie, and now it's heading to reach the 100.000 milestone to become the highest local horror movie ever. Today's (Thursday 18th) Wide releases: -Las Grietas de Jara (Local movie, likely to be the highest opener of the weekend) -Insidious: The Last Key (will battle for the highest opener) -The Commuter (128 Screens) -Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (82 screens) Edited January 18, 2018 by Hei25 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hei25 Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 (edited) January Animated Hits since 2010 (1.000.000++ admissions): Wreck it Ralph Moana Sing* Tangled Frozen Coco Opening Weekend 210.068 225.803 241.382 299.308 352.711 409.717 1st Wk Weekdays 148.555 164.584 138.907 209.265 229.537 235.205 1st Week Total 358.623 390.387 380.289 508.579 582.248 644.922 2nd WKND 126.838 (-40%) 154.422 (--32%) 170.021 (-30%) 190.477 (-36%) 243.617 (-31%) ? Total 1.170.478 1.474.056 1.121.598 1.620.000 1.943.239 ? *Sing had 3 days of previews with a total of 96.848, so it's total after first week was 477.137 admissions. Edited January 18, 2018 by Hei25 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lor15 Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 I hope COCO break 2 mill admissions, it's an amazing movie, I think my favourite Pixar movie ever Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
averagejoe Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 Any early numbers of Coco's second weekend? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...