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JJ-8

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I'll be doing some updates this week.... been a little busy of late to update much here.. but will get things fully up to date this week. :)

 

Quick summary of the top 10 at the moment:

 

1. Iron Man 3 - 39.23m ~ is still sitting pretty at the top.... time will tell whether this is enough to hold onto the top spot. (potential breakers i think are The Hobbit 2 & Catching Fire with Thor being an extreme long shot.

 

2. Despicable Me2 - 35.59m ~ has had an amazing run, not quite at the same level as Toy Story 3 but still an excellent finish.  Only 3 animated films have made more - Finding Nemo; Toy Story 3 & Shrek 2.  Pretty good company to be in.  DM2 has also had an amazing 12 week run in the top 20 now which is equal best in 2013 (with Life of Pi).  

 

3. Life of Pi - 28.29m ~ the early leader for most of the year till iron man 3 came along, LOP had a rather impressive run at the start of the year (in fact it opened on the 1st Jan).  appears destined for a top 5 finish though it could become a fight if Thor breaks out as expected (I'm expecting both the hobbit 2 and catching to pass life of pi).

 

4. The Great Gatsby - 27.56m ~ Luhrmann has done it again.  Though not the on the same level as Australia (his best film in australia), TGG has had a very impressive run.  Even better this film, has done a lot better overseas... The Biggest Australian film of 2013 ?

 

5. Fast and Furious 6 - 26.98m ~ what else can be said about this impressive result.  no one expected this franchise to post it's biggest film to date the 6th film into the series... well we will know in a year whether this film has peaked yet as no. 7 is due next year!

 

6. The Croods - 25.09m ~ I like Despeicable me 2, I never saw this one coming.  Even after it opened i saw a finish around 20m... not 25m... but it just hung around forever in the charts (11 weeks) amassing it's rather impressive total... apparently it clicked with audiences perfectly back at easter.

 

7. Man of Steel - 24.32m ~ biggest (in $) superman film ever in australia easily, though this is a rather easy affair as comic book films were never that successful here until recently.  even saying that, I must say while a strong result, i feel a little disappointed in this.  I had this film pagged closer to 30m even after it's opening. but it just fell away a lot quicker than i expected.  maybe my expectations were too high.....  Still a great result for superman and certainly a big improvement over the failure that was superman returns.  In saying that also, personally I saw the film and either i had a crap experience or the film itself was just no good (I wait for the blueray) - the noise was rediculous in the film and i came out with a headache.  I think the film itself was good, just the audio was crap...

 

8. Monster University - 24.11m ~ Prequel to the well loved Pixar film from 2001.  that film made 27.7m back in 2001 / 2002.  while i think the result was a strong / good result, it's also a disappointment in the vein of kung fu panda.  I think in the end it was a little to long after the original.  sometimes you need to hit it while it was hot.  still to make 24m in the face of another animated film make 35m is impressive and without DM2, i get the feeling this would have gotten a lot closer to 30m.  so peg this result down to competition.  I suspected that something would give here given they both opened at the same time, but i thought monsters would end up a lot strong.. in fact i had both films pegged around 30m... so overall total is about right, just split it wrong.

 

9. The Hangover 3 - 21m.  ~ not surprising... in fact i thought it made more it was going to... i guess the goodwill from the first film still had an effect.... given it opened at nearly 9m and only managed 21m is really bad here.. shows it had some extremely bad legs....   even man of steel is considered a disappointment to open just under 9m and make it past 24m.....

 

10. World War Z - 18.53m ~ I did not see this one coming.... i'm impressed with this result, even if it missed the 20m mark which it toyed with for much of it's run.  unlike Th3 above it, WWZ opened to only 6m but managed better legs finally winding up 18.5m .  It's also one of my favourite films of the year.  I think it deserved > 20m... but then in australia The Walking Dead (which this is clearly built upon as a base) while popular only shows on foxtel (paid tv).....  still very impressed... big win for the studio even if it did cost a lot....

 

just outside the top 10 there is a line up of disappointments that expected so much more:

 

- The Wolverine

- Star Trek into Darkness

- Oz the great and powerful

 

I'm sure there are others, but these 3 in my mind stand out......  OZ in particular i expected to be a lot higher (> 20m).  Star Trek I thought could build a lot more on the 1st film (of the new franchise), but to only match the first film in $ is just disappointing.  As for the wolverine... hmmm

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Thanks for the update, J!

 

Just a few things I thought...

1. LoP still creeps up on me as a 2013 release even though it was so long ago. However after Catching Fire and The Hobbit (and the usual surprises) it could possibly go as low as 8th for the year.

2. THE HANGOVER 3 MANAGED TO MAKE 21M???

3. Does Gatsby count as an Australian film? Apart from director and film locations, I thought it was technically still not an Aussie film.

4. FF7 will decrease from FF6 for sure. I know you said about MU to "strike while the irons hot" but I think theyre striking too soon on this one. They've always had at least two years and I feel rushing this one for the sake of cashing in on the franchise is going to be a big mistake.

 

But 2013 is turning out to be a great year and I cant wait to see what the summer brings!

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3. Does Gatsby count as an Australian film? Apart from director and film locations, I thought it was technically still not an Aussie film.

 

It was primarily a Village Roadshow production, "presented" (i.e. co-financed and distributed abroad) by WB. Here in China it was released as an Australian import and WB's name wasn't on the film at all (not even in the closing credits).

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Well I thought it would be close at the top but i must say it's weak for all of those films though turbo appears to have started well in the shuffle.  I did think that something would hit 2m this weekend, but i guess ultimately there was way too much competition for anything to break out and there wasn't a dominate kids film like the june / july holidays when DM2 demolished all it's path.  

 

This could well be one of the weakest september holidays we've had in ages if nothing breaks out.

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Not much has really changed in the top 20 of 2013 ... now you see me has moved up 2 further spots.  it will no doubt finish in 11th spot for now before other films pass it.  Elysium has also jumped a spot into 18th where it will remain until possibly the Smurfs 2 passes it (possibly the only film that could slip into the bottom half of the top 20 that has opened for the september holidays so far.  Otherwise our next entry could well be Thor 2 (unless Gravity pulls the wild card)

 

Actually given Gravity get's a long weekend over it's opening weekend it could well pull out a big punch here.. The market is currently dead enough for something like gravity to take hold. (PS - yes i know i'm talking about a film that opens in 2 weeks time but that the wasteland of films we have right now.. nothing is really standing out - I'm sure some of the films are good films in their own rights ... just not a blockbuster)

 

I would think that Thor 2 is a shoe in to be well into the top 20 after it's opening weekend  (I'm thinking 8 to 12m ~ yes a wide range but i'm not sure of the bump this will get here)  I think the bar for success must be the first films opening weekend. If we get above 10m then we are in good terrority and above 12m is into the stratosphere and beyond.

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Just reviewing previous september holidays - we had blockbusters well and truely:

 

2012 ~ Madagascar 3 & Taken 2

2011 ~ The Smurfs & to a lesser extend Real Steal

2010 ~ Despicable Me

2009 ~ Up (yes it opened 2 weeks in advance but it was targeting the school holidays clearly)

2008 ~ Wall-E (was close enough to 20m to include it here)

2007 ~ Bourne Ultimatum (was a little early but it had an impact); Hairspray (missed 20m); Ratatouille (dissappointed but made nearly 15m) + Rush Hour 3  ~ still between all these we had a strong enough year again.

2006 ~ ok this is the first year looking back which did not have a true brakeout.

 

It just appears this september we are now in, it was expected that Smurfs 2 would be big film to beat, but it's just not there this time around.    I mean it's not over till the fat lady sings, but she's beginning to holler already and it's not looking pretty for any of the family films with only the film that could save us called "Gravity" ... correct me if i'm wrong and missed something but this has to be weakest lineup for a september holidays i've seen in years.  I think that if Pixar had been smart they would have delayed Monster Uni to september where it would have ruled!

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