The Great Box Office Recession? -- Discussing the Up & Down Trends of the Box Office Market

[lab276]

Release dates/bit of infos lot in advance is so good...I can only imagine the mind of the StarWars fan in 97 when Menace filming started.Release setted for 99 with 3 years gap between each movie.

I think knowing only three months before would be even better for a fan. It'd be a nice surprise.

[Gideon]

I think knowing only three months before would be even better for a fan. It'd be a nice surprise.

You know what it's NOT a surprise anymore?lolSuperheroes opening summer.Since 2007 to 2012 and next:13: IM314: TASM215: TA216: IM4?17: TASM3?18: TA319: ?

[Caladbolg]

Main reason why 2012 seems slumpy is lack of quality movies. Battleship, Dark Shadows, Rock of Ages, That's My Boy, etc. All crap.2013 looks more promising, while we may not get huge numbers like TA or TDKR. May starts off with Iron Man 3, opening weekend will be interesting to watch and then legs. Combine that with Star Trek 2, FF6 and HO3, all of which should do $200m+. Not putting much stock in it but also in May, Epic could be a sleeper hit if trailers are good.June looks good, After Earth with Will Smith and Jaden Smith has potential, Man of Steel, Monsters University. July looks good too, Independence Day 3D, be interesting to compare it with Titanic and The Phantom Menace rereleases. Lone Ranger, The Wolverine, Pacific Rim, Depsicable Me 2.I guess we'll have a better idea though once trailers start coming out later, but to me next year seems better not only for movies to go and see but track as well.

[lab276]

I'm more interested in the not summer months at this point. It's always fairly predictable.

[#ED]

Attack Of the Clones 3D?

[AniNate]

One of the things I really hate about box office tracking is knowing what's going to come out in years to come. I'd much rather be surprised. I wish studios didn't release any information on anything until no more than three months before the movie comes out.

Wouldn't that just make tracking much more boring? I mean, let's face it, no one really cares about what comes out in late August-October until very close to release. The tentpole talk is what keeps these forums going during those down months.And anyway, it still makes for a bit of intrigue whenever a distant release date gets dramatically altered. Edited August 19, 2012 by tribefan695

[Gopher]

IM3 is winning the summer. Tons of Avengers goodwill and with Shane Black on board I think it could be the best one in the series. IM2 adjusted for 3D is 385m and this one will definitely sell more tickets. Trek should do well too but I don't think it'll come close to IM. Two big question marks right now are Man of Steel and Pacific Rim. I think Supes is good for 200m+ but how much further it goes will come down to quality. Same with PR but its potential might be limited as a monster movie. DM2 and Monsters University are good for 250m+. The Fast/Furious franchise should make another 200m. Hangover could make another 200m ONLY if it looks like a funny, very different movie. Add Wolverine, White House Down and Grown Ups 2 as 150m movies and I think the summer looks strong on paper.

[lab276]

Wouldn't that just make tracking much more boring? I mean, let's face it, no one cares about what comes out in late August-October until very close to release. The tentpole talk is what keeps these forums going during those down months.And anyway, it still makes for a bit of intrigue whenever a distant release date gets dramatically altered.

In those months we'd find out what gets released in November and December.

[AniNate]

In those months we'd find out what gets released in November and December.

By this point all the big holiday movies already have their trailers out, so there's really not much of a surprise.Maybe if you make the cutoff longer, like a year, I might be in agreement. That's the point where big release dates are for the most part set in stone but trailers are not yet released. Edited August 19, 2012 by tribefan695

[lab276]

By this point all the big holiday movies already have their trailers out, so there's really not much of a surprise.

Not quite sure what you're saying here.And I think a year is already too long. If it's three months you're always kept on your toes, in a manner of speaking.

[AniNate]

I'm saying that if Sony announced a date of "November 9" for Skyfall in August, the reaction would be more like "ugh, about time" instead of "OMG another Bond movie!" I would find it more annoying than exciting if they waited that long knowing that they always fully intended to release the film in the fall season.

Edited August 19, 2012 by tribefan695

[lab276]

I'm saying that if Sony announced a date of "November 9" for Skyfall, the reaction would be more like "ugh, about time" instead of "OMG another Bond movie!"

I don't think it would be, because you'd know absolutely nothing beforehand, no rumours, no casting information, nothing. So when you find out that suddenly a Bond movie is coming out you'd be losing your shit.

[AniNate]

You can't run a multibillion dollar industry in complete secrecy when you have thousands of shareholders who want to know where their money is going.

[lab276]

You can't run a multibillion dollar industry in complete secrecy when you have thousands of shareholders who want to know where their money is going.

They can know, just without all the hoopla that goes with it.

[AniNate]

I doubt they can control what their shareholders do with the information once they get it, but whatever. Personally, I'd rather have the reassurance that there is always a movie coming out that I can get excited for.

Edited August 19, 2012 by tribefan695

[lab276]

Let me put it another way, you're thinking about this from your perspective ie: the world as it is now when we know things years in advance. What would have to happen is a transition period and eventually you'd be left with a world where not knowing everything (in this context) is the norm. This is also presuming that movies remain popular as an entertainment format. So you'd be investing in something you don't know everything about, but you do know that a lot of the time they are successful and you get paid dividends.Does this make sense?

[AniNate]

I figured that was exactly what you were doing, because I certainly can't see a situation where the studios would decide they need to withhold more information from the public. What would they gain from it?All I know is I'm pretty content with the way it works now, and I don't see much of a personal upside to your alternative. If anything, it would probably cause me to lose interest in the subject.

Edited August 19, 2012 by tribefan695

[Gideon]

IM3 OW explosion: this thread will be regarded as a big "how could we ever think that?!"

IM3 OW implosion: this thread will be regarded as a big "damn, that movieman was on something..."

[lab276]

I figured that was exactly what you were doing, because I certainly can't see a situation where the studios would decide they need to withhold more information from the public. What would they gain from it?All I know is I'm pretty content with the way it works now, and I don't see much of a personal upside to your alternative. It would probably cause me to lose interest in the subject.

It wouldn't be all that different from how it is now, the hype machine doesn't normally start before three months put anyway. It's just that from out perspective, we wouldn't know about things years in advance, the future would be much more mysterious and, I think, more exciting.

[lab276]

IM3 OW explosion: this thread will be regarded as a big "how could we ever think that?!"

IM3 OW implosion: this thread will be regarded as a big "damn, that movieman was on something..."

As we saw just this year, an explosion at the very start of summer does not necessarily translate into a box office turnaround.