The Great Box Office Recession? -- Discussing the Up & Down Trends of the Box Office Market

[AniNate]

Back when I originally created the "box office recession" thread at Mojo (I think in 2010), I essentially based the entire notion of such a box office slump on the same general principles and definition of the economy. So, from my point of view at least, I tend to look at it as being more than a few months. A lot of economists use the rule of thumb of having two consecutive quarters of declining GDP --- so something similar to that except replacing GDP with box office market gross.

Well, if that's the case, then we're not in a recession yet because yearly box office increased from Q2-Q3 of 2011 and we have not yet had 2 quarters of declining annual BO gross since.Though I guess if September sucks as much as mid-July through August has we will. Edited August 19, 2012 by tribefan695

[MovieMan89]

These are my Holiday predictions for the big movies, and yeah I know I'm being super optimistic here but like I said I think it will be a huge Holiday season:Hobbit: $515mBreaking Dawn 2: $275mWreck It Ralph: $250mSkyfall: $210mRise of the Guardians: #140mLes Mis: $135mDjango: $115mLincoln: $115mFlight: $110mThis Is 40: $90m

Edited August 19, 2012 by MovieMan89

[lab276]

Well, if that's the case, then we're not in a recession yet because yearly box office increased from Q2-Q3 of 2011 and we have not yet had 2 quarters of declining annual BO gross since.Though I guess if September sucks as much as mid-July through August has we will be.

Not quite sure what you're on about. Even in dollars Q2 was down.

[Shawn Robbins]

With 4 including the Hobbit, amazing. 2013 will give us 3: IM, CF and The Hobbit III. Could there be a a 4th (THG)? ST2 and DM2 are 2 other candidates.

I try not to predict too far ahead because so much in the market can change between now and then (and the quality of the movies are the biggest determining factor anyway), but I don't see 2013 delivering as many $400m films. Hobbit hinges entirely upon how well the first one is received this year. IM3 has to deal with the slight disappointment of IM2 and being the first to follow up Avengers with a smaller scale film, and Catching Fire has to follow the phenomenon that THG became this year much like the second Potter had to do back in 2002.Trek 2 entirely depends upon word of mouth. It should have a big enough opening to give it a decent crack at it. Despicable Me 2 could be a monster... but animated sequels have burned in recent years (Panda, Cars, etc.) so that'll have to prove itself as well.

Well, you've got TH, Les Mis and Django Unchained. Not to mention the Judd Apatow comedy which could break out.

Agreed. December looks great, I think. One major tentpole that should swallow up the majority of the market and a bunch of mid-range films that will cater to the Oscar crowds and adults looking for something non-fantasy. Good mix on paper. Edited August 19, 2012 by ShawnMR

[Shawn Robbins]

Last quarter was down, and this one looks to be down too.

True, but what I was saying is that it depends on the time period comparison as well. We could compare to the same quarters last year, or just consecutive quarters. Either way, trends can change but we're definitely not moving in quite the right direction anymore.

[AniNate]

Not quite sure what you're on about. Even in dollars Q2 was down.

Huh? Compare 2011 to 2010. Both Q2 and Q3 were up.

[Gideon]

These are my Holiday predictions for the big movies, and yeah I know I'm being super optimistic here but like I said I think it will be a huge Holiday season:Hobbit: $515mBreaking Dawn 2: $275mWreck It Ralph: $250mSkyfall: $210mRise of the Guardians: #140mLes Mis: $135mDjango: $115mLincoln: $115mFlight: $110mThis Is 40: $90m

4 movies over 200M?The Hobbit not very far away of TDK?

[lab276]

True, but what I was saying is that it depends on the time period comparison as well. We could compare to the same quarters last year, or just consecutive quarters. Either way, trends can change but we're definitely not moving in quite the right direction anymore.

Just by its nature Q2 will always be up from Q1, so that comparison is pointless.

[MovieMan89]

4 movies over 200M?The Hobbit not very far away of TDK?

Yep. I'll eat crow if I'm wrong but I think we're in for a wild ride this Holiday. Never before have there been this many extremely appealing movies for the Holiday season, imo.

[lab276]

Huh? Compare 2011 to 2010. Both Q2 and Q3 were up.

True, but 2012 is seeing a reversal of that.

[Shawn Robbins]

4 movies over 200M?The Hobbit not very far away of TDK?

If the movie hits, with 3D prices and little competition, its definitely possible.

Just by its nature Q2 will always be up from Q1, so that comparison is pointless.

Exactly. That's the beauty and the curse of it being open to interpretation. Edited August 19, 2012 by ShawnMR

[AniNate]

Well, yeah, but going by Shawn's definition this would not be a continuation of the 2010 recession, but a new one.

[lab276]

Well, yeah, but going by Shawn's definition this would not be a continuation of the 2010 recession, but a new one.

OK, I see what you're getting at.

[cookie]

Agreed. December looks great, I think. One major tentpole that should swallow up the majority of the market and a bunch of mid-range films that will cater to the Oscar crowds and adults looking for something non-fantasy. Good mix on paper.

The family audiences only option is The Hobbit, unless they would want to go for another 3D re-release.

[MovieMan89]

The family audiences only option is The Hobbit, unless they would want to go for another 3D re-release.

Even better reason for TH1 to hit $500m+ and the November family movies like Ralph and Guardians to have great legs into December.

[cookie]

Even better reason for TH1 to hit $500m+ and the November family movies like Ralph and Guardians to have great legs into December.

Not sure about that one since most early November releases tend to die off post-thanksgiving.

[Gideon]

I want something as strong as Avatar+Sherlock in 2009 (by spirit, not numbers).

[MovieMan89]

I want something as strong as Avatar+Sherlock in 2009 (by spirit, not numbers).

The Hobbit + Les Mis.Although those won't be nearly as huge as that duo in gross, I think they'll be a knockout December pair.

[Shawn Robbins]

The family audiences only option is The Hobbit, unless they would want to go for another 3D re-release.

I'd imagine Ralph and Guardians will still be in pretty wide release at that point. Family films from November usually carryover into Christmas/New Year's pretty well. If people don't want to see Hobbit, that's good news for those two films. If people are tired of those two, that's good news for Hobbit.

[Gideon]

The Hobbit + Les Mis.

Although those won't be nearly as huge as that duo in gross, I think they'll be a knockout December pair.

Not even a bit of a possibility that this turns like PhantomofOpera?

Can RockofAges be some sort of indication?