The Great Box Office Recession? -- Discussing the Up & Down Trends of the Box Office Market

[AniNate]

It wouldn't be all that different from how it is now, the hype machine doesn't normally start before three months put anyway. It's just that from out perspective, we wouldn't know about things years in advance, the future would be much more mysterious and, I think, more exciting.

You're going to a serious extreme, though. Three months is too soon. I doubt the most anticipated thread would be anywhere near as active if I only let people pick films from three months out.

[Neo]

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[Shawn Robbins]

bump

[Shawn Robbins]

Also, this discussion can go here: http://forums.boxoffice.com/index.php?/topic/1540-the-end-of-the-great-box-office-recession/

[lab276]

Yeah, I don't see it catching 2009.

[lab276]

You're going to a serious extreme, though. Three months is too soon. I doubt the most anticipated thread would be anywhere near as active if I only let people pick films from three months out.

You're still thinking about it from how it is right now. A thread like that wouldn't work in a world we don't know anything further than three months out.

[MovieMan89]

I don't care what anyone says about this summer, but this is damn impressive:1. The Avengers - $617m2. The Dark Knight Rises - $409m (and counting)3. The Hunger Games - $408mThat's our top 3 for the year and we're only at August! Crazy.

[lab276]

I don't care what anyone says about this summer, but this is damn impressive:1. The Avengers - $617m2. The Dark Knight Rises - $409m (and counting)3. The Hunger Games - $408mThat's our top 3 for the year and we're only at August! Crazy.

Yes, as disappointing as it's been lately, this is something to celebrate.

[MovieMan89]

Yeah, I don't see it catching 2009.

Do you mean in gross? Cause the year is still over 4% ahead of '09 at the same point and this Holiday will be every bit as big as '09's, if not bigger.

[Shawn Robbins]

We've never had a year with 3 $400 million grossers (unadjusted) until this one, with still the potential of one more to go.Its a top-heavy year, but yes, that's a pretty cool feat to celebrate.

[lab276]

Do you mean in gross? Cause the year is still over 4% ahead of '09 at the same point and this Holiday will be every bit as big as '09's, if not bigger.

Admissions. I think talking about it in dollars is essentially meaningless. Edited August 19, 2012 by lab276

[AniNate]

So what would need to happen in order for us to declare officially that we are in fact out of a recession? Seems a couple good months aren't enough.

[MovieMan89]

Admissions. I think talking about it in dollars is essentially meaningless.

Ah OK. Do you know where the year to date stands in admissions compared to '09 by chance? Cause like I said I really think this could be a record holiday season.

[cookie]

November is hopefully going to be strong but December is stone cold dead on tentpole films besides The Hobbit.

[lab276]

Ah OK. Do you know where the year to date stands in admissions compared to '09 by chance? Cause like I said I really think this could be a record holiday season.

According to BOM, 906.4 vs 928.5. Unless there's a serious recovery starting now, the holiday season would need to be slightly bigger than 2003 to beat 2009. And that's not happening under any circumstances.

[MovieMan89]

Well admittedly I have really high expectations for a lot of the Holiday films (Hobbit over 500, Skyfall over 200, Ralph over 200, Les Mis over 100, etc). So if it reaches the max potential I think it can it would be a pretty massive Holiday in admissions.

[Shawn Robbins]

So what would need to happen in order for us to declare officially that we are in fact out of a recession? Seems a couple good months aren't enough.

Back when I originally created the "box office recession" thread at Mojo (I think in 2010), I essentially based the entire notion of such a box office slump on the same general principles and definition of the economy. So, from my point of view at least, I tend to look at it as being more than a few months. A lot of economists use the rule of thumb of having two consecutive quarters of declining GDP --- so something similar to that except replacing GDP with box office market gross.At the same time though, there are certain differences and gross alone doesn't take admissions into account. While some do scoff at the suggestion of bringing ticket sales into the equation, it is the declining ticket sales that has a larger impact in some ways because while the studios still make their money, theaters begin to suffer even people stop showing up as much. So we can also look at in terms of 4-6 months of declining ticket sales in comparison to previous time periods (one year ago, etc.).Honestly, I don't think we're dipping back into the recession *yet* (a slump definitely though, set on largely by Aurora right now), but just like in the real world it could be a situation where we don't know that we are or were until its almost over (if not completely). For argument's sake, if June was the last "up" month then I don't think we can officially say the recession is back on until at least late October -- but a bad September and October will sure go a long way to supporting it.I really wish I could find the entire post I had in that Mojo thread. Put a lot of neat stats together over a week or so... but I don't think I have it saved anywhere anymore. Edited August 19, 2012 by ShawnMR

[Neo]

We've never had a year with 3 $400 million grossers (unadjusted) until this one, with still the potential of one more to go.Its a top-heavy year, but yes, that's a pretty cool feat to celebrate.

With 4 including the Hobbit, amazing. 2013 will give us 3: IM, CF and The Hobbit III. Could there be a a 4th (THG)? ST2 and DM2 are 2 other candidates.

[lab276]

November is hopefully going to be strong but December is stone cold dead on tentpole films besides The Hobbit.

Well, you've got TH, Les Mis and Django Unchained. Not to mention the Judd Apatow comedy which could break out.

[lab276]

A lot of economists use the rule of thumb of having two consecutive quarters of declining GDP --- so something similar to that except replacing GDP with box office market gross. ... For argument's sake, if June was the last "up" month then I don't think we can officially say the recession is back on until...

Last quarter was down, and this one looks to be down too.